2018 Senate Rankings

[Holmes]

Wow, Arizona before Nevada? I really think Nevada flips first.

[King Lear]

Here is a visual representation of my 2018 Senate Ratings.

Dark Red=Safe Democratic
Medium Red=Likely Democratic
Light Red=Lean Democratic
Green=Tossup
Light Blue=Lean Republican
Medium Blue=Likely Republican
Dark Blue=Safe Republican

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[Bidenworth2020]

I would argue with you, except I know your IQ is 138

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Wow, Arizona before Nevada? I really think Nevada flips first.

I agree, but I think the two will be pretty close to each other if Arpaio is the nominee.

[Bidenworth2020]

I hope that Lear's predictions are all true and America does go full fascist because then there won't be an internet and I'll never have to see his prediction threads again.

or you could, you know, ignore

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why is Missouri safer than AZ, ND, MT, IN, and WV?

[Virginiá]

King Lear, we already have a Senate predictions/rank thread. Don't make a new thread every time you want to let Atlas know what you think about the 2018 elections.

- Merged into Wulfric's thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ratings after ND change:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (8): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Jeppe]

Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MI, NM, VA, MN-Regular
Likely D (4): NJ, ME, WI, MN-Special
Lean D (7): MT, PA, FL, NV, AZ, OH, ND, WV
Toss-Up (2): IN, MO
Lean R (0):
Likely R (2): TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

[MT Treasurer]

Why did you move MT from Likely to Leans D?

[SWE]

Wow, Arizona before Nevada? I really think Nevada flips first.

I agree, but I think the two will be pretty close to each other if Arpaio is the nominee.

Nah, Heller could still win on an exceptionally good night for the GOP.

[Xing]

I'd flip Arizona and Nevada, as well as Montana and Florida. Minnesota also probably doesn't belong on the list.

[Blackacre]

Ratings after ND change:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (: MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

what happened in ND?

[Cactus Jack]

Ratings after ND change:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (: MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

what happened in ND?

Cramer and Berg both passed on the race, meaning that the NDGOP is stuck with the less-than-inspiring Tom Campbell as their nominee.

[King Lear]

Here’s my top 10 senate seats listed by Likelihood to flip:
1) Missouri
2) Indiana
3) North Dakota
4) Montana
5) West Virginia
6) Florida
7) Ohio
8) Nevada
9) Arizona
10) Wisconsin

[Pericles]

1. Nevada
2. Arizona
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. North Dakota
6. Tennessee
7. Texas
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio
10. Florida

[Brittain33]

Here’s my top 10 senate seats listed by Likelihood to flip:
1) Missouri
2) Indiana
3) North Dakota
4) Montana
5) West Virginia
6) Florida
7) Ohio
Nevada
9) Arizona
10) Wisconsin

Going out on a limb there, ranking Wisconsin below Nevada.

[Cynthia]

1. Nevada
2. Arizona
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. Florida
6. North Dakota
7. Tennessee
8. Montana
9. West Virginia
10. Ohio
11. Wisconsin
12. Pennsylvania
13. Texas
14. Michigan

[Blackacre]

So there's been a few developments in certain Senate races but none of them have been sufficient to change any of my rankings. May as well discuss them though.

In Ohio, Rep. Jim Renacci left the Gubernatorial primary to run for Senate. However, he still has to set up new infrastructure for this race, fundraise, campaign, etc while Brown has a lot of money in the bank. Therefore, my Very Likely D ranking (which is basically just shy of the traditional Safe ranking) holds. Brown would be the favorite in a neutral year given these circumstances, and this year is not neutral.

In Missouri, we've been getting some polls by partisan pollsters that indicate a close race. So my Tossup ranking stands. In Arizona, my Leans D ranking was dependent on McSally entering the race, which she did, and I believe she's going to win the nomination. Finally in ND, Heitkamp's scariest opponents just bowed out, which makes her position stronger, but not strong enough to leave Likely D for now.

At this point, not too much about my rankings should change absent new polling. It's likely that I overshot certain states like WV and ND due to the strong Democratic national environment and the unlikelihood of any rockstar challengers. There are one or two races I have ranked in something of a limboland, though, and I'd like to take this time to talk about them. Here's my most recent rankings for reference: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252885.msg5991036#msg5991036

(Keep in mind that a race that has any chance, whatsoever, of being competitive starts out at Very Likely at most. Safe is only for races that won't be competitive no matter what happens, barring something truly unforeseeable like a sexual assault allegation)

Delaware and New Jersey are where they are because of the incumbents. Tom Carper is not very strong, and Bob Menendez has corruption written on his face. If either state turns into an Open seat, and the Democratic nominee is not a Justice Democrat, then they go from Very Likely to Safe. Arizona and Florida are in limboland, and will move up or down depending on the Republican candidate. Arizona becomes Tilts Democratic or maybe even a Tossup if McSally wins easily, stays at Leans Democratic if she wins but has to fight, and becomes Likely Democratic if Arpaio or Ward win. For Florida, the race reverts to Tilts Democratic if Scott enters the race, and boosts to Likely Democratic if he does not. Finally, Missouri's Tossup status is of course reliant on Hawley winning the GOP nomination. If he doesn't, it becomes Leans Democratic. Same with Tennessee. It goes to Likely Republican if Blackburn or Bredesten don't get their respective nominations, and to Very Likely R if neither do.

[The Other Castro]

1. Nevada (R)
2. Arizona (R)
-----------
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. North Dakota
6. Montana
7. Tennessee (R)
8. Florida
9. Ohio
10. Texas (R)
11. West Virginia
12. Minnesota Special
13: Wisconsin

[Bidenworth2020]

My Current, No Tossup Rating Senate Predictions


Safe D (10): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, MN, MN(S) VA, ND
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Tilt D: WV, AZ, MO, IN
Tilt R: NONE
Lean R (2): NONE
Likely R (3): TN, TX
Safe R (5): MS, NE, WY, UT

[GeorgiaModerate]

My Current, No Tossup Rating Senate Predictions


Safe D (10): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, MN, MN(S) VA, ND
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Tilt D: WV, AZ, MO
Tilt R: NONE
Lean R (2): NONE
Likely R (3): TN, TX
Safe R (5): MS, NE, WY, UT

Indiana?

[Canis]

1. Nevada
2. Arizona
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. North Dakota
6. Florida
7.  Tennessee
8. Texas
9.  West Virginia
10. Ohio

[Dr. MB]

1. Nevada
2. Arizona
3. Missouri
-------
4. North Dakota
5. Indiana
6. Tennessee
7. West Virginia
8. Ohio
9. Florida
10. Montana