UK General Discussion

[countydurhamboy]

RIP to Sir Stuart Bell

[countydurhamboy]

The only party getting a majority in 2015 is Labour. The electoral arithmetic is against the tories, they would need to increase their vote share, which no party in power has done since 1974, to stand a chance. If the tories get rid of Osborne, they might deprive Milliband of a majority. As things stand now however, they will be swept aside.

[countydurhamboy]

The main reason why the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010 despite a large popular vote lead is the fact that a lot of constituencies that once formed part of their automatic total have been voting LibDem since 1997 or so.

Won't that change once the LibDems get destroyed in 2015? If they stay around 10% in the polls, there's like 25-40 guaranteed seats for the Tories.

It's very unlikely the Tories will unseat so many sitting Lib Dem MPs. The last locals showed the Lib Dems holding up in most of these areas. They seem to have a knack of holding on against the odds. At most the tories take 25 seats.

The moment the Lib Dems signed the coalition agreement, they lost about 5% in the polls to the Labour party overnight, thats never coming back. What people forget is thats increased Labour support in Tory marginals too. The Tories now have to make up for this up somehow, there is no recent historical precedent for a party in power in Westminster gaining this support.

This is before we factor in loss of support from policies like tuition fees and Public sector pensions.  Since the budget the government is lurching from one disaster to another. I really do not see anyway that the Tories can win on 2015.

I actually wonder if the party has much of a future left.

[countydurhamboy]

I spent over an hour on a post expanding on why I thought the tories were in trouble and I lost it  These were the key points.

1. Their failure to get a majority in 2010 in ideal circumstances.

2. They seem to have a very low potential vote. A large number of voters in the North, Scotland , Wales and in urban areas will never vote for them. They have a very toxic brand.

3. Increase in the ethnic majority population, while many tory pensioners have retired abroad.

4. Policies like the increase in tuition fees and reducing public sector pensions may well suppress the tory vote amongst those people for a long time.

5 The split in the right due UKIP. The creation of the coalition will mean the left is the most united for years.

6 The collapse in Tory membership (down to close to 100,000) and the seeming death wish of their backbench MP's.

This could change, they say "a week is a long time in politics" I'm talking about an eternity.   The Tories badly need to get new voters from somewhere.


Im not being a hack or a troll, I honestly think they are in real trouble.

[countydurhamboy]

Sunday Times reporting that apparently 17 Tories have apparently written to 1922. Still far from the 46 that'd be needed for a ballot though.

Nothing will happen.

Agreed.

Likewise.... although some of the backbenchers are probably stupid enough to try.

[countydurhamboy]

Written to 1922, wut?

It's what the Tories call their backbench committee which organises their Leadership elections. Its named after a meeting in 1922, at which the Tory backbenchers axed their leader and broke apart the Lib/Con coalition of David Lloyd George.

[countydurhamboy]

It's a good day for parliament today, I feel. Well done to all mp's who voted in favour. Nice to see a little more love in the world  Suppose congrats go to cameron for bringing forward the issue. Ironically the Tories  appear to have lost support in the gay community over this. Since almost every tory I know is also gay. The stupid tories have shot themselves in the foot again. That's not important really though, what's me important is we have more equality in the world.

[countydurhamboy]

Of the 22 Labour No's, 7 were in Scotland. Of the 16 who did not vote, 3 were from Scotland. My own MP, who has been very helpful in trying to sort out the UKBA's clusterf-ck with Michael's residency visa voted in favour.

Biggest shock? George Galloway actually showed up and voted in favour.

What were Scottish MP's doing voting on a measure that affected only England and Wales (or so I thought)?  I was under the impression that non-English MP's didn't vote on such things.

No, it's only the SNP (and I think plaid in wales, although I'm not 100% sure) who do that, everyone else (labour, lib dem and Mundell) votes on everything.

Its a bit ridiculous tbh and I don't believe it's even on the governments list to sort out.

[countydurhamboy]

So where are these four Liberal Democrats from?

Sarah Teather (Brent Central)
John Pugh (Southport)
Gordon Birtwistle (Burnley)
Alan Beith (Berwick upon Tweed)

Teather and Pugh are Catholics.

Good luck getting them tactical voters.

Em, how much of a sticking point will gay marriage be for potential tactical Labour voters in rural Northumberland or in Southport? I can't see the Lib Dems holding Brent or Burnley no matter what way the MPs voted on this issue - propping up the Tories will be the deciding factor there.

Gay marriage strikes me as an issue where you have small numbers either intensely in favour or intensely against, and a broad middle who may be mild approvers or disapprovers, but who won't view it as being an important factor come a general election. Much like Europe or hunting at the other end of the spectrum, frankly.

I think 3 of those are retiring anyway. Pugh definitely is. I wouldn't want to call Brent south, but gay marriage won't be a factor, if anything it may help her.                                                                            Edit: sorted out dodgy post. Sorry

[countydurhamboy]

I Agree with the comment above. Brent central is majority ethnic minority. These seats often behave contrary to national swing, according to local personalities. A Labour gain is likely, though the seat is not a slam-dunk like manc Withington or Burnley.

[countydurhamboy]

I wonder how many Tory MPs would actually have supported the gay marriage bill if Cameron had not backed it. From sites like toryhome (which I realize might not be that representative) you do get the impression that most of the Tory "base" is still very much anti-gay rights.

139 MPs voting against their own Leader in the HoC must surely be a record, right?

There are a sizeable number of tory Mp's who despise Cameron, if anything they would have been hardened to vote against him.   80MP's voted to give Britain a referendum on the Eu in 2011 and basically ended any chance of a ministerial post. They will simply vote the way their ideology dictates. To many gay marriage was just another stick to beat cameron with. They would rather lose in 2015 than compromise. That's what will happen of course.  I wonder who they will want as leader then?

[countydurhamboy]

Is that real or fake?

Are you being serious...?

Ha ha, even UKIP aren't that crazy.  Although.... http://www.gaystarnews.com/article/physical-excercise-prevents-you-becoming-gay-claims-uk-councillor-candidate270413

[countydurhamboy]

https://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/77735/

Cameron being urged by leading Conservatives to scrap the Same Sex Marriage bill. I doubt he'll do this, though, we'll see. The party has been ripped apart by it.

I fear Cameron is that weak. But I don't know what would that accomplish, the UKIP horse has long bolted. It's hurtful that so many people have changed their vote on it though.

Also is anyone else extremely uncomfortable with Nigel Evans being named like this? He hasn't even been charged.

[countydurhamboy]

It's fun to see the Brits squirming because it's just under 33C... awwwwwwwww

Us Brits complaining about the weather? Never!

lol no more porn for you.

Another crap policy from Cameron, he does seem more Thatcherite lately.  Pandering to UKIP voters.

[countydurhamboy]

Am I the only one who thinks Cameron would look better in swimming trunks than Clegg?

Yes!

Interesting article from before 1997 election predicting likely front benchers in 2020. Some good guesses.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/the-cabinet-of-tomorrow-1277684.html

[countydurhamboy]

Sir Alan Beith, the longest serving LibDem MP, is to stand down at the next election. He was first elected for Berwick-upon-Tweed at a by-election in 1973 (triggered by the resignation of its aristocratic Tory MP following a prostitution scandal) and has spent subsequent decades failing to make any kind of meaningful impact whatsoever. His retirement means that Berwick will likely be a top Tory target in the election.

Since when has any Liberal had any meaningful impact? They tend to have huge personal votes though. Sir Alan definitely does.

I've seen him on old BBC election night coverage before (as an analyst); he used to be a regular on it.

All he ever did was whine about PR all night.

Anne Marie-Trevelyan, Tory PPC for Berwick will be on the wine tonight.

Probably the most likely Tory gain in the country now. Probably come up just as Cameron is tendering his resignation.

[countydurhamboy]

Indeed he does. I imagine that he has personally attended every single tedious local ceremony that he has been physically able to since 1973.

To illustrate that point. My mother can't name the home secretory or the education secretory. But when asked who Alan Beith was " you mean sir Alan Beith, he is the Liberal MP for Berwick"

edit: Yes, he did vote against equal marriage. He chair of Lib Dem Christian Forum.

[countydurhamboy]

Why must there be Conference Season?

To give Andrew Neil something to bang on about?

I attempted to watch Nick Cleggs speech, lasted about half an hour. I think his speech and indeed his conference, has gone about as well as he could have realistically hoped. He has strengthened his position within his party. Some of his attack lines on the Tories may even work.

However it has struck me, on several occasions, that everyone at the Liberal Democrat Conference, including the media, exist in a bizarre parallel universe. They seem to think people will believe a word Nick Clegg says about any topic, give the LD any credit and that the parties unpopularity won't matter. They are in for a shock, I think.

[countydurhamboy]

I attempted to watch Nick Cleggs speech, lasted about half an hour. I think his speech and indeed his conference, has gone about as well as he could have realistically hoped. He has strengthened his position within his party. Some of his attack lines on the Tories may even work.

However it has struck me, on several occasions, that everyone at the Liberal Democrat Conference, including the media, exist in a bizarre parallel universe. They seem to think people will believe a word Nick Clegg says about any topic, give the LD any credit and that the parties unpopularity won't matter. They are in for a shock, I think.

The impression I get is that they think that even if the party's underlying support crashes their local campaigning, and in particular the old "Labour can't win here; vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out" line, will rescue many of their seats.

... and yes, that line may seem a bit ridiculous to many now.  But they quote the Eastleigh by-election (though they very nearly lost it, of course) and also the "Thinking specifically about your own constituency" question in that Ashcroft marginals poll.

It would be foolish to doubt that the LD won't do relatively well in these seats with strong incumbents, I agree. However, I think this is limited.  If the tory vote holds up, a big if, but if does we could have a repeat of the 2011 locals, where the LD were slaughtered in large parts of the country by both parties.

I'm not trying to argue they will definitely be wiped out, but I think the political class should at least consider it. The LD's are polling at a level similar to their 1960's electoral results but the  LD, the media and the polling experts aren't even predicting a 20 seat loss. On the daily politics this week i've seen many LD's (as you would expect), but also pollsters and journalists all talking about LD prospects and most are only predicting a dozen losses. 
Last election there was a 1.35% swing from LD to CON. The conservative won a net 9 seats from them. Today UK polling report average shows a 4% swing....

The LD's biggest savour may be UKIP just as in Eastleigh. They should get Farage on that TV debate.

[countydurhamboy]

Oh, I agree they're probably being over-optimistic.  I doubt they'll be back to the taxi, though.

YouGov has come out with a Lab/Con tie on 36, UKIP on 12 and the Lib Dems on 10 towards the end of their conference week.  Hopefully this is an outlier.

Todays Yougov shows just a 1% lead for Labour. Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 11, LD 11. Milband needs to up his game and  get some policies, quickly, how hard can it be to repeal the bedroom tax?

I'm increasingly confident of a Tory seat victory in 2015, especially when the UKIP protest vote flows back.

For the first time I think this is possible. The economy is improving and Crosby has been very effective. Blue on Blue infighting has vanished. Electoral arithmetic is still against you though.

[countydurhamboy]

Oh Godfrey, what were you thinking?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkDfyLFFK84

UKIP are genuinely hilarious.

Edit: It seems he has had the whip withdrawn today, after calling the women at the UKIP conference sluts!