Germany megathread

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Care to explain for us monoglot dolts?

[Estrella]

German state leader 'not wanted' in Ukraine after war remarks

During the TV show [Premier of Saxony Michael] Kretschmer argued that the debate on the war in Ukraine had become too one-dimensional and that more European and global efforts should be made to set up peace talks, even if Russia currently claims not to be interested.

"I think a big problem in the current debate is that we have a narrowing of opinion to one point of view, with one line of argumentation, and I think we need much more of a broad debate, a mix of arguments, for and against. Particularly with such vast questions of war and peace, it's extremely important."

Followed by: Politicians support Kretschmer's position on war

This incident, as small as it is, made me think. At risk of sounding like a 19th century anthropologist, there is something fascinating and slightly terrifying about the German culture of obedience to totalitarian regimes and, despite the stereotypes about Vergangenheitsbewältigung, a refusal of the mainstream to deal with crimes of the past until the guilty generations have died off.

Denazification was a complete failure and the problem of ex-Nazi stranglehold on German economy, politics and culture was only solved by, well, mortality. As late as the 1980s, a widespread opinion among German historians was that the Holocaust was an understandable reaction to the threat posed by Jews. Today, the former GDR is a standout in Eastern Europe: the vast majority of governments clearly oppose Russian aggression. Those who don't are either led by anti-Western authoritarians, have some sort of historical/cultural connection to Russia, or a reason to side with them over unrelated issues. Those aren't justifications, but they are reasons. Pro-Russian sentiment in East Germany is something of a mystery - or it would be if it didn't look strikingly similar to the refusal to condemn Nazism in post-war West Germany.

There's a saying that "the Germans will never forgive the Jews for Auschwitz." I've heard it some time ago and didn't understand it at the time, but after seeing the reaction of the Ossi political class to the war, I do. I suppose today's East Germans will never forgive the Ukrainians for the Russian invasion. Being proud of - or at least not condeming - the old dictatorship has become much harder now that their crimes are out for everyone to see and it's the victims' fault.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Care to explain for us monoglot dolts?

During the CSD Münster on August 27, a university city known for its upscale wokeness and famous for its bicycle-friendliness, two lesbians were insulted and threatened by a 20-y.-o. economic migrant from the Chechen Republic named Nuradi Abacarov, who couldn't be deported despite his declined request for asylum and despite his criminal record because of Putin's war. A 25-y.-o. transman called Malte intervened - a fatal mistake, as he was beaten into a coma by the former youth champion in boxing and passed away on Friday as a result of his injuries. The murderer had been a fugitive from the police for almost a week until he was recognize (thanks to his long police record) and caught by a police officer on Friday. Thousands of demonstrators held a solemn vigil outside the Münster city hall and in many other cities.
While private media mention Abacarov's name, nationality, and religion, our tax-financed state TV refuses to state those facts. Especially insidious: Prior to the murderer's apprehension, German media and the Twitter Antifa insinuated that the perpetrator had to be a German alt-right extremist.



https://twitter.com/polenz_r/status/1565736984148074496?s=20&t=YCF7GLrTUepRf...

PS: Sorry for my non-understandable prose!

[Isaak]

In my view: It's considerably bigger than expected and FDP essentially capitulated. They definitely knew they had no choice, rather than make themselves more unpopular blocking it and be forced to do it in a few months anyway. Although Windfall tax was announced (if EU doesn't pass one, Germany will unilaterally), the reality is it will mainly be financed by debt. Both of those are big reversals by Lindner, as is the continuation of the 9 euro ticket etc.

It's not really a tax (which would be constitutionally dubious) but, yes, Lindner disappointed his electorate here. I am not fully sure what strategy he has in mind; it would be much easier to play hardball and blame the Greens.

2. Lindner can come along now and dish out financial aid everyone, as he controls the public purse. Hence why Finance Minister is a very convenient portfolio to have.

Well, I - and many others - did not vote for Lindner to dish out financial aid to anyone but to limit public spending and strengthen Germany's economic competitiveness. I thus remain doubtful whether it makes sense to alienate the party's voter base to curry favor with Greens and Social Democrats (who may be happy about their 49-69 euro ticket and social benefits but will never vote for the FDP anyway).

Obviously, the situation is not easy and the pressure enormous – but there is increasing discontent about the liberals' performance within the coalition.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1566819301222383616

[President Johnson]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62788447

Federal Government announced another 65 Billion Euro Stimulus package.
- Wide ranging transfers to compensate for energy costs, especially profiting those on lower incomes (Social benefits, Students, Elderly, Child benefits)
- Some form of successor to the 9-Euro ticket (somewhere in the range of 49-69 Euros per month to travel nationwide on public transfer) financed by 1.5 Billion from Federal Government and an equivalent amount from the states
- Energy price cap for a basic amount of usage (up until now unlike in France -full freeze or UK-temporarily adjusted cap, in Germany the market principle was dominant, although the length of contracts of energy providers with public utilities companies had a certain relieving affect for consumers)
- Windfall tax for Energy companies

The practical effect: a Family with two Children earning around 31.000 EUR, will get about 1.600 EUR from this. The same family earning double that: around 1000 EUR.

In my view: It's considerably bigger than expected and FDP essentially capitulated. They definitely knew they had no choice, rather than make themselves more unpopular blocking it and be forced to do it in a few months anyway. Although Windfall tax was announced (if EU doesn't pass one, Germany will unilaterally), the reality is it will mainly be financed by debt. Both of those are big reversals by Lindner, as is the continuation of the 9 euro ticket etc.

Despite that, politically, Lindner could actually benefit most from the three traffic light parties. Why? Because, now what happened is:

1. Habeck had to take responsibility (as economic minister) for introducing the Levy ("Umlage") on gas bills. This was introduced to address the aforementioned problem of suppliers who bought most of their gas from Russia, being in huge financial trouble as they could not immediately pass on their much higher purchase prices to public utilities companies and therefore consumers due to contract length. This was obviously very unpopular, and damaged Habeck severely, because consumers had to not only pay this levy on top, but also because it later turned out that some of the companies receiving it were subsidiaries of companies which made big profits out of the current crisis. However it was only necessary because Lindner behind the scenes refused what the Greens and SPD wanted: a windfall tax and nationalising/bailing out the energy providers to guarantee prices instead. So Lindner actually forced it, but Habeck had to take political responsibility.

2. Lindner can come along now and dish out financial aid everyone, as he controls the public purse. Hence why Finance Minister is a very convenient portfolio to have.

Sorry for the complicated explanation, but I think it is good to understand these details. Overall the package is clearly quite progressive and a transfer mainly to those on lower to middle incomes, and there is not very much help for businesses.

Good post, thanks.

I generally support the package, though there's too little in for middle class working people in my opinion. Especially bachelors or couples without children that make an average pay between 30k and 50k per annum. I'm in that category and pretty much all costs have gone significantly up and there's not much in here other than maybe the price gap for electricity. It's important students and retirees with small benefits get some help, but the people paying the taxes and keep the system running should benefit equally.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not previously mentioned, but we have a deal between Germany and victims of the Olympics Massacre of 1972.

The families of 11 Israeli athletes killed by Palestinian attackers at the 1972 Munich Olympics have reached a deal with Germany over a long-disputed compensation claim, the German government said Wednesday.

Earlier this month, the families had threatened to boycott Monday’s 50-year anniversary ceremony in Munich organized by German authorities because they said the amount they had been offered was too low.

“The German government welcomes the fact that it has now been possible to reach an agreement with the relatives on an overall concept to mark the 50th anniversary,” a spokesman for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.

“This includes the reappraisal of the events by a commission of German and Israeli historians, the release of files in accordance with the law, the classification and acceptance of political responsibility within the framework of the commemoration ceremony, as well as the provision of further recognition services by the federal government, by the state of Bavaria and by the city of Munich,” spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said.


The German news agency dpa and other media reported that Germany increased its offer to the families to around 28 million euros (dollars), up from the initial 10 million euros offer to the families, which would have included the payments already made. Of this, the federal government is to bear 22.5 million euros, the state of Bavaria 5 million euros and the city of Munich 500,000 euros, dpa reported.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1566819301222383616

The Greens seem to be commited to deindustrializing Europe for good.

Reminder: Electricity futures jumped 30%, just in the past 24 hours.

Dont vote Green unless you can afford it, people.

The fervent left wing anti-nuclear agenda is pure science denial, fueled by child like emotions, much like the "BILL GATES IS CHIPPING US" folks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Earlier today I read that France is threatened by energy shortages and power outages this winter, mainly due to many of France's nuclear plants being in bad shape and in need of overhaul. Overhauls that have been dragging on because of the high financial costs involved in such processes. So the supposed virtues of nuclear power certainly have their limits too, and if you think that isn't true you're merely following an ideology too - just an ideology that happens to be different from the Green one. Personally I think the situation is too dire to just latch on to the first opportunity that seems to provide us with the comforting confirmation of what we always knew to be true anyway.

That being said, the German Greens are obviously primarily motivated by a certain uneasiness that they could offend parts of their own long-term core base. So they are trying to carefully tiptoe around the issue, making political concessions at snails speed. Personally, I could stand that these concessions happen a bit faster, but then again they didn't put it up for a vote of the membership - for rather obvious reasons, I suppose.

[Estrella]

I wondered why Habeck decided to keep only two out of three remaining power plants in reserve, and it seems we have a possible answer.

Everything for a state election?

In an interview with Zeit, FDP General Secretary Djir-Sarai adds: "The impression that there could have been political influence here is problematic. That damages the reputation of the coalition as a whole." Konstantin Kuhle, FDP General Secretary in Lower Saxony, is similarly sharp: "The only reason why the nuclear power plant in Lingen in Emsland is not also going into reserve operation is the left-wing regional association of the Greens in Lower Saxony. Habeck has to assert himself against the ideologues in his party and continue to operate all three systems."

If you'd told me this time last year that the FDP would become the voice of reason within Ampel, I'd have thought you'd gone mad.
Also, the 78-year old Oskar Lafontaine, SPD's candidate for Chancellor in 1990, founder of the left-wing splinter WASG and former co-chairman of Die Linke has regrettably decided to share his thoughts on the war. Just so you know, he opposed the reunification of Germany and quit Die Linke earlier this year due to them not being sufficiently anti-Ukrainian for his tastes.

Most recently, with the Maidan coup in 2014, the USA showed that they were not willing to take Russia's security interests into account. They installed a US puppet government and did all they could to integrate Ukraine's armed forces into NATO structures. Joint maneuvers were held and the Russian government's constant objections were ignored.

In this context, the mendacious argument is used that every state has the right to freely choose its alliance. But no state should set up rockets from a rival power on the border of a nuclear power without warning and justify this naively with the free choice of alliance.

There's a certain type of German politician that loves to wax poetic about the special relationship between Germany and Russia and acts as if the two were neighbours, but forgets there are about a dozen different independent countries between them.
And now, some news from Berlin

"Enough is enough": A divided left demonstrates in Berlin against the Greens.

Early Monday evening, various left-wing groups and party members of the Left came together in front of the federal headquarters of the Greens, right next to the Charité. They want to demonstrate against the Green party leadership. According to the police, 600 people gathered on the square in front of the New Gate in Berlin-Mitte under the slogan "Enough is enough - protest instead of freezing". Many of those involved shared an announcement on Twitter with an eye-catching design: Three fists can be seen on the flyer, in the colors of the Russian national flag - white, blue and red.

But still: The omission of the war is not really successful. Not when Harri Grünberg (Die Linke) calls for the immediate end of the sanctions, and not when the biggest applause can be heard when the speakers are talking about Ukraine. This is the main reason why 57-year-old Evelin Genzel from Schmargendorf is here. Ms. Baerbock, she says, has led this country to the abyss with her escalative policies and sanctions against Russia. "Right from the start, she just wanted to escalate." Many of the participants in the demo are of this opinion. Others, on the other hand, are vehemently opposed to mixing up the Ukraine issue with the gas surcharge and sharply condemn statements like Genzel's. One could say: the demo is deeply divided.

achberlin.txt

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Also, the 78-year old Oskar Lafontaine, SPD's candidate for Chancellor in 1990, founder of the left-wing splinter WASG and former co-chairman of Die Linke has regrettably decided to share his thoughts on the war. Just so you know, he opposed the reunification of Germany and quit Die Linke earlier this year due to them not being sufficiently anti-Ukrainian for his tastes.

Most recently, with the Maidan coup in 2014, the USA showed that they were not willing to take Russia's security interests into account. They installed a US puppet government and did all they could to integrate Ukraine's armed forces into NATO structures. Joint maneuvers were held and the Russian government's constant objections were ignored.

In this context, the mendacious argument is used that every state has the right to freely choose its alliance. But no state should set up rockets from a rival power on the border of a nuclear power without warning and justify this naively with the free choice of alliance.

There's a certain type of German politician that loves to wax poetic about the special relationship between Germany and Russia and acts as if the two were neighbours, but forgets there are about a dozen different independent countries between them.
And now, some news from Berlin

"Enough is enough": A divided left demonstrates in Berlin against the Greens.

Early Monday evening, various left-wing groups and party members of the Left came together in front of the federal headquarters of the Greens, right next to the Charité. They want to demonstrate against the Green party leadership. According to the police, 600 people gathered on the square in front of the New Gate in Berlin-Mitte under the slogan "Enough is enough - protest instead of freezing". Many of those involved shared an announcement on Twitter with an eye-catching design: Three fists can be seen on the flyer, in the colors of the Russian national flag - white, blue and red.

But still: The omission of the war is not really successful. Not when Harri Grünberg (Die Linke) calls for the immediate end of the sanctions, and not when the biggest applause can be heard when the speakers are talking about Ukraine. This is the main reason why 57-year-old Evelin Genzel from Schmargendorf is here. Ms. Baerbock, she says, has led this country to the abyss with her escalative policies and sanctions against Russia. "Right from the start, she just wanted to escalate." Many of the participants in the demo are of this opinion. Others, on the other hand, are vehemently opposed to mixing up the Ukraine issue with the gas surcharge and sharply condemn statements like Genzel's. One could say: the demo is deeply divided.

achberlin.txt

Furthermore, the far-left Linke are marching now hand in hand with the right-wing AfD and the right-wing extremist Freie Sachsen in the so-called 4th-wave Monday demonstrations.

[President Johnson]

Wow, at the annual budget debate in the Bundestag, Olaf Scholz was unusually on fire after opposition leader Merz provoked him and attacked Habeck in stark terms. Scholz forcefully dennounced the critisism and accused CDU/CSU of blocking several meaningful reforms over the last 16 years. #Scholzonfire is pretty much trending everywhere now. I thought he was really good.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1567555726138085382

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not news, just something I found during one of my "research politics and history while pretending to work from home" days.

How 18 - 24 year olds voted in German elections from 1990 to 2021:


There are the obvious ever-present caveats about polling and sample sizes, but I think the general trend of younger voters leaning slightly to the left is indeed true also in Germany (or at least, the ones who bothered to show up to vote), if not to the same extent as in other countries.

Particularly interesting how young people liked the SPD so much under Schröder. Would be interesting to see all age groups going back as far back as possible, and of course split between West and East post-1990, but for some reason polling data in Germany is incredibly difficult to find for more than just the past few elections (e.g. table i previously created on age).

[palandio]

The source for this diagram is probably not a compilation of exit polls, but the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (representative electoral statistic), except for 1990 and 1994, when there was no such thing and it must be exit polls.

For the representative electoral statistic ballots in a representative sample of about 3-4% of all precincts are marked with demographic identifiers (gender, age group) and counted by these identifiers.

The representative electoral statistic is extremely precise, since it doesn't have most of the issues commonly associated with (exit) polls. It includes data since 1953 and differentiates by Bundesland and East/West, too.

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/8ad0ca1f-a037-48f8-b9f4-b599dd380f02/btw21_heft4.pdf

(Apologies in advance to your employer for supplying you with fresh material )

[NewYorkExpress]

Amid the energy crisis, Germany has seized three Russian owned oil refineries.

The German government has seized control of three Russian-owned oil refineries to secure supplies of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.

Germany's economy ministry announced on Friday that it had temporarily taken over Russian oil giant Rosneft's subsidiaries in the country. Rosneft Deutschland and RN Refining & Marketing account for about 12% of Germany's oil refining capacity, the ministry said in a statement.

The move was designed to "counter the threat to the security of energy supply," it added.

....
Germany's Federal Network Agency, which regulates its gas and electricity industries, will control Rosneft's shares in three refineries: PCK Schwedt, near Berlin, MiRo, near Heidelberg, and Bayernoil in Bavaria.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Not news, just something I found during one of my "research politics and history while pretending to work from home" days.

How 18 - 24 year olds voted in German elections from 1990 to 2021:

Make FDP Last Place Among The Youngs Again

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not news, just something I found during one of my "research politics and history while pretending to work from home" days.

How 18 - 24 year olds voted in German elections from 1990 to 2021:

Make FDP Last Place Among The Youngs Again

In 2021, the youth vote for the FDP has largely been attributed to an (anti-) lockdown effect. Well, that and the fact that they didn't want to vote for the AfD over this issue, apparently.

[President Johnson]

Munich Oktoberfest is back today. However, visitor numbers were relatively low. Bad weather is certainly one reason.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1571153502541213696

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some minor things here and there:

- Niedersachsen election polling looks pretty stable thus far, with the SPD leading the CDU by 3-6 points depending on the polls. A continuation of the SPD+CDU coalition is still possible, although a SPD+Green majority is also likely. A Green+CDU coalition is possible but currently most polls show them just coming up short. But so long as neither the SPD or Greens suddenly implode, there is not much reason to expect a change. I don't really know if the SPD+CDU coalition is still desired in Niedersachsen amongst the SPD, but I assume an SPD+Green coalition is favored?

- On the same day as the Niedersachsen election (October 9th), Cottbus will have its run-off election for mayor between SPD candidate Tobias Schick and AfD candidate Lars Schieske. In the first round held on September 11th, Schick received approximately 31,8% of the vote to Schieske's 26,4%.

- Speaking of the AfD and polls, they have been gradually ticking up since May when they were at about 9-10% to 13-14% now, likely due to the cost of living crisis that is making virtually every government in Europe unpopular right now. The AfD and associated groups are planning a March to Berlin-esque event on Saturday, October 8th.

- Interestingly, German industry is using significantly less gas despite only modest declines in production:

[Torrain]

I was reading an article from the Guardian about splits in Die Linke, and wanted to ask -
(https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/germanys-die-linke-on-verge-of-split-over-sanctions-on-russia)

Does this pose the kind of existential threat to the party that it looks like on the surface (to this outsider at least) and inferred by the article? Or will they limp on?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was reading an article from the Guardian about splits in Die Linke, and wanted to ask -
(https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/germanys-die-linke-on-verge-of-split-over-sanctions-on-russia)

Does this pose the kind of existential threat to the party that it looks like on the surface (to this outsider at least) and inferred by the article? Or will they limp on?

Maybe... dunno. The current situation that a couple of semi-prominent Left members have abandoned the party because of Wagenknecht. A split is widely speculated about, but the party leadership is doing everything in its power to hold it together. I think yesterday or so a meeting of the Left caucus in the Bundestag didn't go as badly as it had been expected beforehand.

[MaxQue]

I was reading an article from the Guardian about splits in Die Linke, and wanted to ask -
(https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/germanys-die-linke-on-verge-of-split-over-sanctions-on-russia)

Does this pose the kind of existential threat to the party that it looks like on the surface (to this outsider at least) and inferred by the article? Or will they limp on?

The big problem is that they barely got into the Bundestag last time, so any problem can become quite threathing.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I was reading an article from the Guardian about splits in Die Linke, and wanted to ask -
(https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/germanys-die-linke-on-verge-of-split-over-sanctions-on-russia)

Does this pose the kind of existential threat to the party that it looks like on the surface (to this outsider at least) and inferred by the article? Or will they limp on?

The big problem is that they barely got into the Bundestag last time, so any problem can become quite threathing.

This factional split is occurring among almost the same lines as that which earlier this year resulted in Die Linke being shut out of the legislature of Lafontaine's own Saarland (although of course they fell much further and had much further to fall), so we've already seen what could happen.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Some seem to believe, that Wagenknecht and her allies are planning to split the party, anyway, and are only waiting for the right moment, but who knows, at this point.

For, what it's worth the Linke direct-district-winner in Leipzig II, Sören Pellmann, seems to be quite sympathetic to Wagenknecht and used her on campaign posters in 2021. He is one of the main inititators of the "energy price protests" in Leipzig, that made some headlines, especially for the fear of far-right-infiltration and the use of the "Monday demonstration" symbolism.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/DPolGHH/status/1565679165197750272

Why did I know the person behind this crime was a migrant? Stats tell us that there is no difference in anti-Semitism between someone who learns about the Holocaust in school and someone who goes through the middle-eastern school system.

Not news, just something I found during one of my "research politics and history while pretending to work from home" days.

How 18 - 24 year olds voted in German elections from 1990 to 2021:


There are the obvious ever-present caveats about polling and sample sizes, but I think the general trend of younger voters leaning slightly to the left is indeed true also in Germany (or at least, the ones who bothered to show up to vote), if not to the same extent as in other countries.

Particularly interesting how young people liked the SPD so much under Schröder. Would be interesting to see all age groups going back as far back as possible, and of course split between West and East post-1990, but for some reason polling data in Germany is incredibly difficult to find for more than just the past few elections (e.g. table i previously created on age).

RIP Trans-Atlantic Alliance