Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Epaminondas]

Haven't seen this posted yet on this thread: in 2019 (long before the war began!), researchers at the Princeton Program on Science and Global Security created a simulated war "using realistic nuclear weapons positions, targets, and fatality estimates to show the consequences that a nuclear war could have on both countries and the world".

The simulation’s scenario predicted 91.5 million casualties, with 34.1 million dead and 57.4 million injured.

Here's their page: https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a with eerie video.

Not sure I buy Putin going mad and dragging down every Russian with him, but their prediction that an Eastern European land conflict might start this was spot on.

[Epaminondas]

Slightly unrelated to the current excitement, but what does the restored Ukraine-Russia border look like now? Mined up and locked down?

[Epaminondas]

A reminder just how huge Russia is: Chita, where this report was made, is 4,700 kilometers from Moscow. Manila is closer at 4,200km away!

I often wonder what sort of allegeance the citizens of Eastern Siberia or Kamtchatka can feel for the Kremlin over 4000 miles away. I've been told by Russians that the same shows are broadcast a few hours later.

[Epaminondas]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia%E2%80%99s-capability-not-its-intent

US policy should recognize that the Kremlin’s intent regarding Ukraine is maximalist, inflexible, and will not change in the foreseeable future. The West should stop expending resources trying to change a reality it does not control and focus on what it can shape plenty: denying Russia’s ability to wage a war against Ukraine.

Surely even you can see that you're actively misinterpreting the thrust of the article, which advocates for more military support for the Ukrainian military rather than less.

[Epaminondas]

Is Tweeter Andrew Perpetua unbiased? He seems to focus readily on Russian advances.

Bakhmut - Pidhorodne is taken/partially taken by RU. Bakhmut itself might soon be surrounded by 3 sides.

It's on 3 sides. Could this guy actually be a Russian plant?

[Epaminondas]

Lol speak of a modern Potemkine village.

[Epaminondas]

I've lived in Lithuania for work. No Lithuanian over the age of 30 wants that land back, and they are very concerned by Russian language dominating everyday life again. Older people remember growing up in the USSR and the tacit ban on using Lithuanian in any official capacity.

The Czechs put up a good prank website: Visit Kralóvec

it was quit sensible to remove the Germans from Eastern Europe, one of the best results of WW2. Like the Russians the Germans had spread over far too great an area and were blocking legitimate interests of many other nations [...]

the fewer people identifying as Germans and Russians in this world the better so any assimilation of Germans and Russians into other nations should be welcomed.

Gross and seriously immature. These were people, not pawns on a Risk board.
Dehumanising is the first step towards fascism. Try replacing German or Russian by Jews, see how it sounds.

[Epaminondas]

That last explosion was at least 200km from the frontline. The storage area is completely levelled.

[Epaminondas]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Terrible advice, as usual.
If the Ukrainians advance, it reinforces Prigozhin's platform that the RAF are run by incompetent generals and that he Russia's providential man.

If the events dislocate the front and Ukrainians don't advance, how will that benefit them in a week when the situation in Moscow is stabilised one way or another? It doesn't, unless you truly believe that a war fanatic such as Prigozhin would order a general retreat.

[Epaminondas]

A take from a Kazakh friend: he believes that it is all a false flag operation in order to invite Tokayev to send the whole Kazakh army into the country as government support, only to then send them to the Ukrainian front.

[Epaminondas]

Europe is honestly lucky a country like Turkey still wants to enter EU after the humiliation it makes them go through for acceptance. If I were Turkey I would honestly not give a damn about EU and simply leave NATO altogether.

It tracks with your world view that you'd think the EU someone needs to advertise to recruit new members. In Estonia, the EU regional development fund has poured in €10B since 2005, over 3 years of the national budget. Everyone can see that Turkish ministers would love this windfall to line their pockets.

Rather, Erdogan knows full well his poor, corrupt, authoritarian regime doesn't make the cut for membership in the considerably wealthier and democratic European Union, so he tries blackmail rather than comply with the institutional requirements for a functional block.

How long will it take for you to see that most of the tech and amenities around you would not exist without Western institutions.

[Epaminondas]

Am in Vilnius for the event, and can tell you it's something: police on every main street, helicopters hovering despite the usual restrictions, new checks at the border with Latvia & Poland, and Ukrainian flags everywhere.

A flag from Bakhmut was raised on the central square, bullet holes and all.

Zelensky gave a speech: intro in English, then several paragraph in Ukrainian with a live translation into Lithuanian. Came within 3ft of him as he left.

https://ibb.co/2vSRFJR

Huge crowds, a Lithuanian colleague told me the atmosphere hasn't felt this electric since the first large scale freedom demonstrations in 1988.

[Epaminondas]

Also, this is a colossal collapse to Russia by Europe. I’m noninterventionist, but if Canada was being invaded I would take great interest.

Does noninterventionist means whoever has more guns gets to set the law, regardless of treaties or past agreements?

We could agree with the analogy, if there existed at the fringes of Nunavut a sinister Arctic empire, run by a tyrant hell-bent on restoring a glorious albeit invented Era of Winter and who had already annexed Ellesmere through covert military operations a few years ago.
As it stands however, there is just no comparison possible. Russia has intervened in Eastern Europe for over 300 years.

[Epaminondas]

Also, this is a colossal collapse to Russia by Europe. I’m noninterventionist, but if Canada was being invaded I would take great interest.

Does noninterventionist means whoever has more guns gets to set the law, regardless of treaties or past agreements?

Yes! How are those treaties/laws/agreements enforced? With guns and bullets

Enforcing bilateral treaties with a well-trained force ≠ invading countries at leisure and causing untold suffering because they one country has more tanks.
The difference between the borders of Russia-Ukraine and US-Canada.