Pure Tossup to Tilt D - I picked the former to err on the side of caution.
Obviously the trends in the state are horrible for the GOP and predate Trump's rise. But it's possible that they nominate someone who threads the needle like Youngkin did and manages to get great turnout from rural whites while also flipping back some suburban voters and making some minority inroads.
But to be clear, this would likely be the last hurrah for quite some time.
I agree but it’s worth noting that this strategy did not at all work for them in the January runoffs.
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