Rate GA in 2024 with a non-Trump GOP Nominee

[TPIG]

Say health or some other x-factor leads Trump to decide against running in 2024; how would a non-Trump Republican fare in the Peach state?

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt D. Even without Trump, I don’t see it being a likely tipping-point state given how much of the state's transformation is due to mere demographic shifts (generational turnover, extremely favorable migration patterns, etc.).

[Suburbia]

Tilt D

[South Dakota Democrat]

Say health or some other x-factor leads Trump to decide against running in 2024; how would a non-Trump Republican fare in the Peach state?

Peachy.

In all seriousness though, it's probably tilt D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is in trouble all over the map, Warnock is gonna have a Runoff on his hands, no purple state Leans D not even GA

[THG]

Tilt D to Tilt R.

Probably one of the tipping point states.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Tilt D to Tilt R.

Probably one of the tipping point states.

Agreed.

[Roll Roons]

Pure Tossup to Tilt D - I picked the former to err on the side of caution.

Obviously the trends in the state are horrible for the GOP and predate Trump's rise. But it's possible that they nominate someone who threads the needle like Youngkin did and manages to get great turnout from rural whites while also flipping back some suburban voters and making some minority inroads.

But to be clear, this would likely be the last hurrah for quite some time.

[MT Treasurer]

Pure Tossup to Tilt D - I picked the former to err on the side of caution.

Obviously the trends in the state are horrible for the GOP and predate Trump's rise. But it's possible that they nominate someone who threads the needle like Youngkin did and manages to get great turnout from rural whites while also flipping back some suburban voters and making some minority inroads.

But to be clear, this would likely be the last hurrah for quite some time.

I agree but it’s worth noting that this strategy did not at all work for them in the January runoffs.

[patzer]

Likely D, the Youngkin model could theoretically work but it’d need everything to line up right for them. Similar sort of status to Minnesota.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are people so influenced by HA it's gonna go back R even if Warnock wins there isn't any Senate race in 2024/ and Warnock and Ossoff won on 2K checks if you remember and aside from tax credits there aren't any 2K checks anymore

Those tax credits are eaten up by Property taxes that parents pay for having a house if they have kids, most Apartments aren't big enough to have kids but a 90K House  is big enough and out here in Cali the Homes are too expensive so people rent but they need cars and insurance

So, even child tax credits aren't enough, everyone got out of poverty with 2K checks and Kemp will win reelection unless Abrams announces and even then he is Fav, Cook has Kemp winning Reelection regardless

[Ferguson97]

Tossup to Tilt D.

[S019]

Lean D, as it would be in most Generic R v Generic D

[MargieCat]

Define "Non-Trump republican."

[TPIG]

Define "Non-Trump republican."

A Republican other than Donald Trump...

Unfortunately that's the only thing it really could mean, for seemingly every politician in the GOP needs to kiss Trump's ring in order to have any success with the base.

[Person Man]

The Coastal South and the Great Lakes are switching places.

[TodayJunior]

Tossup. But it’s hard to see GA vote to the left of WI and PA this soon. Although I thought the same thing about Virginia this time in 2013 so there’s that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna vote D before WI, Cook has Kemp Fav for reelection and Abrams hasn't announced and Warnock won on 2K checks

If Tammy Baldwin can win in WI so can Barnes and Barnes is no more Socialistic than Warnock

Many maps I have seen show that GA will vormyw D before WI and WARNOCK won based on 2 K check

Both he and Ossoff still underperform polls they were expected to win 51/49 and they both won by .5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D, as it would be in most Generic R v Generic D

.


No
You know Warnock won by 85 K votes that is a Tossup not Tilt D

[Alben Barkley]

Likely D, the Youngkin model could theoretically work but it’d need everything to line up right for them. Similar sort of status to Minnesota.

Georgia was the closest state in the country in 2020.

Virginia voted for Biden by 10 points.

Even a slight regression in the suburbs could cost Dems GA pretty easily.

This site massively overestimates how Democratic GA supposedly is now for some pretty sketchy reasons. The Titanium Tilt D meme circlejerk is getting pretty ridiculous. Likely D and on par with Minnesota is even more ridiculous. Amazing how massively different the narrative would be if like 10k votes went the other way.

[TPIG]

Likely D, the Youngkin model could theoretically work but it’d need everything to line up right for them. Similar sort of status to Minnesota.

Georgia was the closest state in the country in 2020.

Virginia voted for Biden by 10 points.

Even a slight regression in the suburbs could cost Dems GA pretty easily.

This site massively overestimates how Democratic GA supposedly is now for some pretty sketchy reasons. The Titanium Tilt D meme circlejerk is getting pretty ridiculous. Likely D and on par with Minnesota is even more ridiculous. Amazing how massively different the narrative would be if like 10k votes went the other way.

Very much agree! Trump, a uniquely toxic candidate for the expanding Atlanta suburbs was still able to come within 11,000 votes of winning the state. Obviously, the political environment of 2024 is up in the air and thus, so is the status of Georgia. I think toss up is the best bet.

[BG-NY]

People seem to forget that the runoffs were less close than the general. Enmity for 45 gets in the way I guess.

With Trump - Likely D
Without Trump - Likely D

A non-populist can make it a bit closer but it still isn’t voting R absent a blowout.

[Roll Roons]

This may seem obvious, but if Democrats win the 2022 Senate/gubernatorial races even if it's otherwise a good Republican year, I would not be optimistic about the GOP's chances in 2024 even without Trump.

[GregTheGreat657]

It depends
With Trump: Lean D
With DeSantis: Tilt D

[GregTheGreat657]

Pure Tossup to Tilt D - I picked the former to err on the side of caution.

Obviously the trends in the state are horrible for the GOP and predate Trump's rise. But it's possible that they nominate someone who threads the needle like Youngkin did and manages to get great turnout from rural whites while also flipping back some suburban voters and making some minority inroads.

But to be clear, this would likely be the last hurrah for quite some time.

I agree but it’s worth noting that this strategy did not at all work for them in the January runoffs.

That's because the base really did not turnout for Perdue/Loeffler, because they thought there was no point in voting, because Trump kept saying that the election was rigged, and they thought "there was no point in voting, because Dems will steal the election anyway" or something to that effect