2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Brittain33]

NBC/Marist has GCB at D+10

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810241423.pdf

Hahahaha, "Suburban" is 1% more Democratic voting than "Big city."

[Brittain33]

Hahahaha, "Suburban" is 1% more Democratic voting than "Big city."

Uh-oh, are Dems losing all their support in big cities? #DemsInDisarray

Perhaps we need a new thread asking if anyone else feels the Dems are throwing away their chance at success?

[Brittain33]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject. I know some people refuse to see any connection between the pipe bombs and the attacks and Trump but the median voter understands the danger in what Trump and his allies in the media have been saying about Dems and Soros.

[Brittain33]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Are you sure that isn't for women vs men voting Dem? Here's what I see on their website:

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https://www.prri.org/research/partisan-polarization-dominates-trump-era-findings-from-the-2018-american-values-survey/

[Brittain33]

I'm going by the topline PDF, which says...

Hmm, yeah, I see it now. Not sure what's happening with the write-up, then.

[Brittain33]

Hmm, well the PA-11 poll only has a sample size of 311.

That is super-small and VERY noisy. So it is most likely a substantial outlier.

This is a R+14 district. Pennsylvania seems to have serious buyer's remorse about Trump (look at PA-7 not being close) but even so, this seems like quite an outlier.

[Brittain33]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

However, this poll wrapped more than one week ago (Oct. 21-22), so it was unaffected by the shooting.

[Brittain33]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

[Brittain33]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

That's assuming that the Democrats win all the other close races, which is far from certain.  Yes, there's a plausible path for it to happen, but the Democrats have to get all the breaks.  Their chances of doing this are about the same as filling an inside straight in poker.   Sometimes people do fill inside straights, but there's a reason that's a metaphor for something really unlikely happening.

Not all, I assumed ND is a lost cause for the Dems ...

Missouri is a toss-up at best for Dems, and it would take a major polling error for Dems to win TX, TN, or ND. I agree it's not impossible, but looking at the polls, it is less likely than Trump winning in 2016 was.

[Brittain33]

Can you imagine what the Senate and GCB polls would look like if Kavanaugh had withdrawn and Republicans had a conservative, pro-life nominee awaiting confirmation over Election Day?

[Brittain33]

New Jersey GCB, D +20 (56-36)
Bodes well for close suburban districts.

Trump approval: 37/62

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf

By comparison, the actual congressional vote in NJ in 2016 was D+7.

...and Gottheimer still won under those circumstances, which surprises me, but I guess that district has been more D since the last round of redistricting pulled it southeast.

[Brittain33]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

[Brittain33]

Axne outpacing Finkenauer?
Wut

College degree voters swing

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

[Brittain33]

I’m so confused. Where is the presumption that Dems are lagging coming from? Not from two D+7 polls, surely?!

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/CSierra1CNN/status/1059399939246166016

I had to look up if there is any historical precedent for a gap in actual votes this large. This is what I found:

1974: D+16.8%
1964: D+14.7%
1958: D+12.4%

So, um, yeah. Brave, CNN.

[Brittain33]

How do I fix this GIF I posted ^^?

I don't think gifs show up as images on the Atlas board.

I just successfully posted one on the Nelson+7 poll using the Insert Image feature, but it doesn't always work.

[Brittain33]

CNN's poll was complete catnip for Trump, wasn't it? Especially since it would be extraordinary for Dems to actually achieve that result.

[Brittain33]

Bookmarking this thread for feedback on Wednesday.

Sorry, I had to merge it.

[Brittain33]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Nice!

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.

[Brittain33]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Gallup had it at D+7 back in '06...

D+12 in '08 (53-41)

[Brittain33]

I can't wait to find out what the margin in the 218th district turns out to be and what that says about the impact of the R gerrymander of Congress after PA, VA, and FL were revised by courts.

[Brittain33]

Obviously not a top tier candidate, but Stephen Lynch has his first primary challenger.

Good luck, Some Guy!

[Brittain33]

NY-14: #WalkAway founder Brandon Straka to consider a challenge to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D). Straka voted for Hillary in 2016, but has since moved hard-right. He’ll run as a Republican most likely.

He reminds me of Peggy Hubbard (who's considering a run against Sen. Durbin in 2020) in many ways.

https://twitter.com/usminority/status/1093171522422886402

wouldn't he want to run somewhere he wouldn't get embarrassed?

If it's a #walkaway scam, he's a grifter. He is going to fundraise so much money off the Fox News demographic by running against AOC on his way to losing by 50 points.

[Brittain33]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

Yes, the PVI is R+12. Collin Peterson is there, UT-4 is R+13, and OK-5 and SC-1 are hanging out at R+10 but that's it among ~50 Republicans.