2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[psychprofessor]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

In 2016 these same districts were R +15.

[Brittain33]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

[Tender Branson]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

That's assuming that the Democrats win all the other close races, which is far from certain.  Yes, there's a plausible path for it to happen, but the Democrats have to get all the breaks.  Their chances of doing this are about the same as filling an inside straight in poker.   Sometimes people do fill inside straights, but there's a reason that's a metaphor for something really unlikely happening.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

That's assuming that the Democrats win all the other close races, which is far from certain.  Yes, there's a plausible path for it to happen, but the Democrats have to get all the breaks.  Their chances of doing this are about the same as filling an inside straight in poker.   Sometimes people do fill inside straights, but there's a reason that's a metaphor for something really unlikely happening.

Not all, I assumed ND is a lost cause for the Dems ...

[libertpaulian]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

Ouch.  Bye-bye Rothfus, Fitzpatrick, Kelly, and Perry.

[Virginiá]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

Ouch.  Bye-bye Rothfus, Fitzpatrick, Kelly, and Perry.

I'm more curious what that will do to the state legislature. That kind of margin (or something similar) is unlike anything seen since at least 2008, and it would probably obliterate the PAGOP's majorities. At least in the state House anyway.

[wbrocks67]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

If we were able to take PA-10 and PA-16, I think I would cry. Now if PA-11 was included too...

[Brittain33]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047

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Awesome, so under the very likely scenario that Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House by a significant margin, both sides will go crazy.

Republicans holding the Senate isn't "very likely".

All it takes is a pickup in AZ and NV and a slight polling error in TX or TN and ... it's gone.

That's assuming that the Democrats win all the other close races, which is far from certain.  Yes, there's a plausible path for it to happen, but the Democrats have to get all the breaks.  Their chances of doing this are about the same as filling an inside straight in poker.   Sometimes people do fill inside straights, but there's a reason that's a metaphor for something really unlikely happening.

Not all, I assumed ND is a lost cause for the Dems ...

Missouri is a toss-up at best for Dems, and it would take a major polling error for Dems to win TX, TN, or ND. I agree it's not impossible, but looking at the polls, it is less likely than Trump winning in 2016 was.

[Gass3268]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

If we were able to take PA-10 and PA-16, I think I would cry. Now if PA-11 was included too...

If this is accurate, I'd love to see the margin of PA-09.

[Brittain33]

Can you imagine what the Senate and GCB polls would look like if Kavanaugh had withdrawn and Republicans had a conservative, pro-life nominee awaiting confirmation over Election Day?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

[Zaybay]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

I seriously am surprised you havent been kicked off the Congressional board at this point. At this point, you're just another Limo.

[Doimper]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

I seriously am surprised you havent been kicked off the Congressional board at this point. At this point, you're just another Limo.

He's looking for attention; don't give it to him.

[Yellowhammer]

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

West Virginia US Congress District 1

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=341, +/-5.5%

David McKinley (R-Inc) 57%, Kendra Fershee (D) 32%, 11% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 2

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=344, +/-5.5%

Alexander Mooney (R-Inc) 47%, Talley Sergent (D) 39%, 10% undecided

West Virginia US Congress District 3

MM, LV, Oct 28-31, n=328, +/-5.5%

Carol Miller (R) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Morrisey and Miller primed for the win.

I seriously am surprised you havent been kicked off the Congressional board at this point. At this point, you're just another Limo.

I didn't know that being a disciple of the bluenami cult was a requirement for being permitted on the congressional board.
Half of Bagel's statement is objectively true, Miller is favored to win. The other half is an embellishment, but it's certainly a slim possibility that Morrisey could win. Honestly, Bagel's concern trolling is usually about as tolerable and reasonable if not more so than your hackery.

[ON Progressive]

North Carolina (Meredith):
Democrats 49
Republicans 38
Others 3

State legislature generic ballot is similar:
Democrats 48
Republicans 38
Others 3

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Final_Poll_Report_October_2018.pdf#page15

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

North Carolina (Meredith):
Democrats 49
Republicans 38
Others 3

State legislature generic ballot is similar:
Democrats 48
Republicans 38
Others 3

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Final_Poll_Report_October_2018.pdf#page15

Inject this into my veins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Oct. 28-29, 822 RV including 509 LV (1-week change)

RV: D 50 (nc), R 44 (+4)

LV (no priors): D 52, R 43

[Florida Man for Crime]

NPR/Marist, Oct. 28-29, 822 RV including 509 LV (1-week change)

RV: D 50 (nc), R 44 (+4)

LV (no priors): D 52, R 43

I don't like the +4 R with RVs, but I'll take the LVs.

[Gass3268]

NPR/Marist, Oct. 28-29, 822 RV including 509 LV (1-week change)

RV: D 50 (nc), R 44 (+4)

LV (no priors): D 52, R 43

I don't like the +4 R with RVs, but I'll take the LVs.

As a Democrat, it feels weird to see LV screens get more Democratic. I don't think I've ever seen that since I've started closing watching polling (2008).

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Oct. 28-29, 822 RV including 509 LV (1-week change)

RV: D 50 (nc), R 44 (+4)

LV (no priors): D 52, R 43

I don't like the +4 R with RVs, but I'll take the LVs.

FWIW, the RV sample this week was relatively more Republican (compared to Democrat) with a lot fewer independents.  Trump's approval also improved this week, which is counter to the trend in most of the other recent polls.

Last week (RV): D 33, R 26, I 38
This week (RV): D 37, R 32, I 30
This week (LV): D 39, R 34, I 26

[Gass3268]

GOP poll has IL-14 as a tie:

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP poll has IL-14 as a tie:

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This is on my list of potential upsets.