State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[IceSpear]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

[IceSpear]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

Until Democrats lose something else or fall a point in the generic ballot average, then suddenly THEY'RE DOOMED AND THE RED WAVE IS INCOMING AGAIN!

Did Conor Lamb's victory not already "prove" they were "repairing their standing with the working class"? I know that was 2 months ago, an eternity by Atlas standards, but people here really need to have perspective and look at the bigger picture rather than obsessing over every little movement in noisy polls and every single state legislative election as if it's a microcosm of the entire country.

[IceSpear]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

Until Democrats lose something else or fall a point in the generic ballot average, then suddenly THEY'RE DOOMED AND THE RED WAVE IS INCOMING AGAIN!

Did Conor Lamb's victory not already "prove" they were "repairing their standing with the working class"? I know that was 2 months ago, an eternity by Atlas standards, but people here really need to have perspective and look at the bigger picture rather than obsessing over every little movement in noisy polls and every single state legislative election as if it's a microcosm of the entire country.

I like how people already forgot about AZ-08. Young Conservative said 2018 might be D+10 after that election, and now he's back to generally being a GOP hack. The generic ballot was D+7 when Tipi got a 16 point swing too, which is barely better than it is now.

Posters here really have the memory of goldfish.

And that one was merely 3 weeks ago. 3 weeks! LOL

I'm pretty convinced at this point that posters here won't be satisfied with the Democratic Party's standing until there's not a single elected Republican official in the entire country.

[IceSpear]

Unfortunately he already gained what he was seeking with that post: attention.

[IceSpear]

Might as well rename this thread "LimoLiberal trolls users who bother to engage his nonsense megathread v2"

[IceSpear]

Time to ban Andrew tbh

[IceSpear]

Wow. Clark Mitchell makes a massive improvement off of Hillary’s showing in Washington County with everything in. This is an impressive result for a dude who lives in his mom’s basement. Helen Tai will pull off a massive upset in PA178 indicating the blue wave is alive and well

Republicans couldn't even match Trump's performance with a highly contested primary going on on their side with nothing on the Dem side, running against a neckbeard surviving on Hot Pockets, Cheetos, and Mountain Dew playing Call of Duty in his mom's basement. Sad!

PAGOP is finished.

[IceSpear]

So, Republicans won 3 Specials to the Democrats 2 tonight. The 🌊 is slowing a bit, it seems.

Next week:

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83

This analysis is retarded even by Atlas standards

No, I'd say it fits in quite well.

[IceSpear]

The state GOP is in shambles, Greitens has dragged them down in the pits, and they have no hope of recovering before November.

Greitens will be a distant memory by November. You really think the attention span of the average voter is that long?

[IceSpear]

People are already rushing in to say "muh Greitens" to excuse the R-loss, using it to act as if this has no bearing on the rest of the races we'll see in 2018. They did the same with "muh pederast" in AL-SEN. It's almost as if MULTIPLE state-level Republican parties are horrible, scandal-plagued and liable to blowback, and that perhaps these cases aren't necessarily isolated incidents.

It won't. Only Dem hacks (which were already banked votes) will remember or care about Greitens by November. Voters have the attention span of a goldfish.

If McCaskill wins, it'll be because of the political environment, the enthusiasm gap, and Hawley's dud of a campaign.

[IceSpear]

Rep. Lauren Arthur had massive facebook enthusiasm and the DLCC invested rather significantly here as well. She was a great candidate who had a great win.

So this means the Dem wave is back on, right Andrew?

[IceSpear]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

[IceSpear]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

There's a reason Lear, hofoid, and now Bagel adopted the concern trolling strategy. It gets you the most bang for your buck in terms of effectiveness and getting attention for yourself, with the added bonus that the mods have made clear you can do it with impunity. Definitely the best market to invest in if you want to be a long term troll, as opposed to the more risky "be an outright Nazi" market, which may yield short term fortunes but with a grim longterm prognosis.

[IceSpear]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

It's so weird. He keeps getting these races wrong and for some reason always seems to favor Republicans (wrongly). I don't understand why. I'm just so perplexed by this!

Yeah I mean, I can understand thinking the first few times were a fluke. But you'd think after the 50th time or so you'd learn to stop touching the stove.

[IceSpear]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

[IceSpear]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

The Dems deserve every ounce of criticism and limo liberal trolling they're getting. This result was embarrassing and there's no excuse for it.

Maybe so, but pretending a single obscure low turnout state legislature special election can be extrapolated to the nationwide political environment while ignoring everything else is the definition of trolling. Just more of the same intellectual disingenuousness designed to annoy people and provoke responses, which of course it accomplished with flying colors. Even hofoid's "cave bump" theory looks like scholarly genius by comparison.

[IceSpear]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows massive swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats disastrously and devastatingly underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats collapsing, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look drastically different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

Let me break down this trainwreck of a post one step at a time, even though it's not going to convince concern trolls like you about anything:

1. Polls can't tell you about Latino turnout at all. I hate when people explain poll results by saying "THERE'S LOW LATINO/(insert whatever subgroup) TURNOUT IN THIS AREA IN MIDTERMS" because polls can't predict turnout.

2. How much of that SD-19 swing was because turnout dropped hard for an obscure special election, thus meaning the electorate could've been much whiter than the actual demographics? It'll probably be a significantly more Hispanic electorate in 2018, let alone 2020 when this seat comes back up again.

3. CA-21 was never on the board at all because that area has laughable turnout AND a strong incumbent. The CA-39 poll had Trump approval at even in a Clinton +9 seat which isn't believable at all. That was also probably our toughest of the OC seats. CA-25 is still a tossup, given that Knight is only up 3 and he's under 50 in a 42-52 Trump approval seat.

FL-26 was always going to be tough because the GOP incumbent is really well liked (and even that isn't preventing his race from being within 3 points AND below 50 against an opponent with 32% name recognition LOL), and the two FL-27 polls are internals. One of those internals is from McLaughlin, which is a notoriously terrible firm that's missed races by 30+ points consistently. The other is from a random firm I've never heard of, and it could very well be just being pushed out to tell people "DONATE TO ME!!!!!"

4. The Nevada polls are in line with what we've seen in other Nevada polls, and Nevada polls have a LONG history of underestimating Democrats, as this post by IceSpear shows: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301205.msg6407307#msg6407307

5. What surge? We have two outlier polls with Cruz +9 and O'Rourke +2, which cancel out largely to be a Cruz +4-5 race. Cruz +4 or Cruz +5 would be very much in line with what the race has been stuck at for months.

There's no point in posts like this, they only encourage him.

[IceSpear]

Remember when LimoLiberal insisted that the Texas special election like a month before 2018 meant Hurd was safe, Cruz would win by double digits, and Republicans would hold the House? I also remember when Oklahoma special elections meant Gov. Edmondson was inevitable.

[IceSpear]

Guys, OF F[inks]ING COURSE THEY WEREN’T GOING TO KEEP OVDRPERFORMING. That’s generally what happens after you have a successful election. Trend currently is concerning but we’ll see how it goes with time. Worth noting that presidentials do have different dynamics than midterms due to the fact that everything in pretty much every race is swayed by how the national candidates so far.

Also we’ve been sliding in CT for a while; especially considering the margin in the gov race vs national environment.

I’m not entirely relaxed about it; it’s worrisome. But not time for panic mode just yet either.

2018 was not a successful election by any stretch of the imagination for Democrats. They missed the mark on all the parameters that measure Democratic success tooled for the 2018 elections:

Success in House: Do Democrats have 243 or more seats in the House? No, failure of a cycle.
Success in Senate: Do Democrats have 51 or more seats in the Senate? No, failure of a cycle.
Success in Governorships: Do Democrats have 30 or more total Governorships? No, failure of a cycle.

2018 was a complete failure for the Democrats on every level.

Uh, what kind of idiotic benchmarks are those? Dems only hit one of those in 2006 (the Senate one), and Republicans only one (the Governorship one, and number of governorships is something in which Republicans have a systemic edge) in 2010.

Solid thought WI-01 was lean D, clearly his expectations were a tad too high.