British Local Elections, May 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

Pardon my ignorance but when you say these contests did NOT seem close at the start of the year - is that because people assumed both would be easy Labour pickups in what promises to be a Tory meltdown in the locals or that because people assumed the Tory incumbents had enough personal popularity to be unbeatable?

No, quite the opposite - Houchen and Street were both expected to win easily *despite* the polls.

[JimJamUK]

Pardon my ignorance but when you say these contests did NOT seem close at the start of the year - is that because people assumed both would be easy Labour pickups in what promises to be a Tory meltdown in the locals or that because people assumed the Tory incumbents had enough personal popularity to be unbeatable?

No, quite the opposite - Houchen and Street were both expected to win easily *despite* the polls.

Which is ridiculous given Street only won re-election by 54-46 in a very good Tory year. Just goes to show how ignorant our media is.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1785360073302130781?t=fxXPR0D-pCcUoYe6g...

Here's that New Statesman map by Ben Walker alluded to yesterday. Also includes his writeup, though IMO that fails to note the Gaza Chaos narrative in some councils (perhaps because the defectors don't show up as defectors based on how he constructed his map), and somewhat succumbs to the the mayoral hyperfixation.

[YL]

Andrew Teale's previews:

Part 1: introduction, London and Wales
Part 2: northern England, except Lancashire, and the Midlands

(Parts 3 and 4 to follow)

[YL]

Andrew Teale's previews:

Part 1: introduction, London and Wales
Part 2: northern England, except Lancashire, and the Midlands

(Parts 3 and 4 to follow)

Part 3: southern England outside London

In other news, an outfit called Labour Together ("a think tank offering bold ideas for Britain under a Labour government") have produced a poll of the North Yorkshire mayoral election (which includes the city of York as well as the ridiculous North Yorkshire unitary council, which in turn includes Sunak's constituency). It shows Labour ahead by enough that if they don't win it will be reasonable to call the poll wrong.

[IceAgeComing]

Out of pure curiousity I looked up the Tees Valley polls from 2021 - only had two; both had Houchen in the low 60s and he ended up getting 73% so perhaps an indication that you should hold polling with a pinch of salt - especially because the two 2021 polls were Opinium and Yougov who have a decent reputation. Also interesting to note that the biggest percentage increase in the Tory vote in that election was in Hartlepool which is where they had the famous by-election that they gained - turnout was also at its highest there which might have a small impact on the overall position. Although as I've said before I don't think 2021 is the election to look at here: I'd go back to 2017 where Houchen just won (in I believe an upset in a very good Conservative year).

Anecdotal evidence is a bit useless: in the bits of Darlington I live around and frequent I've seen more Labour posters/boards up in and around houses than Houchen ones; I've also seen Labour canvassing and not the Tories (although my ward is fairly safe Labour which might explain why - although a decent minority of Tories that I think would be big enough to canvass) although only a few times: it really has not felt like a close election from that base. Although my previous experience of that was the mid-2010s elections in Scotland where the SNP ran some impressively large operations all over the place and the Tories were motivated so perhaps not that representative!

[CumbrianLefty]

Pardon my ignorance but when you say these contests did NOT seem close at the start of the year - is that because people assumed both would be easy Labour pickups in what promises to be a Tory meltdown in the locals or that because people assumed the Tory incumbents had enough personal popularity to be unbeatable?

No, quite the opposite - Houchen and Street were both expected to win easily *despite* the polls.

Which is ridiculous given Street only won re-election by 54-46 in a very good Tory year. Just goes to show how ignorant our media is.

I yield to few in my disdain for this country's politics scribblers (all the recent hilariously delusional drivel about "Rishi's best week" is surely reason enough for that) but in this case it wasn't just the  media assuming this, but political activists from all parties as well. Earlier this year, Labour briefers were saying both Houchen and Street would "walk it" - that wasn't just expectations management.

[Oryxslayer]

Andrew Teale's previews:

Part 1: introduction, London and Wales
Part 2: northern England, except Lancashire, and the Midlands

(Parts 3 and 4 to follow)

Part 3: southern England outside London

In other news, an outfit called Labour Together ("a think tank offering bold ideas for Britain under a Labour government") have produced a poll of the North Yorkshire mayoral election (which includes the city of York as well as the ridiculous North Yorkshire unitary council, which in turn includes Sunak's constituency). It shows Labour ahead by enough that if they don't win it will be reasonable to call the poll wrong.

Ehhhh....it's a "possibly believable" poll, that's what I will say. Since I started looking at these contests I have thought there is an outside chance of the Tories taking none of the mayors and Labour all, but that hinged on North Yorkshire.  In a normal time, this is Safe Conservative. But an open seat now, here, is not so safe. 2023 in York and even 2022 in the northern council were bad for the Conservatives.

The issue is that there is viability for not just Labour, but the Lib-Dems as well as potentially one of the Indies. So if the opposition voters gravitate to one and consolidate, then the Tories could be in trouble. If not then vote splits give the Conservatives a path to victory.  Definitely a place where the elimination of the second round runoff helped the Conservatives. It's not too hard to imagine Labour plus the Lib-Dem voters teaming up in the current environment and putting one of their candidates into power in a 1 v 1.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just found out the Andy Street is the long-term partner of Michael Fabricant MP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These have been a very low-profile set of locals for the most part, which reflects the need for everyone to conserve resources and keep their powder dry for the main event.

[TheTide]

BBC coverage begins at 11:40PM BST tomorrow evening.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, its showtime. 

Polls will open at 7 and close at 10 in the evening. Reminder to bring a acceptable form of ID, that was a big headache when introduced previously.

Some time around or after 10pm the press will begin covering results in text and video. The BBC time is in the post above me, but others exist. I know from experience Sky will have a YT livestream for those who lack anything else - I have pity to offer if that is your only option. 

However,  the above broadcasters will mostly just focus on the toplines and narratives that makes sense to the average viewer.  If you want to know exactly what seat was won by who, a regional papers website or council homepage may be your best choice. People online will eventually have a spreadsheet up, but they are only human and mistakes will happen in the struggle to obtain the data fast like everyone else. At some point people like Ben Walker at the New Statesman  or @ElectionMapsUK will have the results in visual form, depending on how fast results are uploaded.

Things though won't just be overnight, but instead extend into the weekend in some areas. The rough press timeline of when to expect results is here, but that is for things overall.  Individual results may begin to trickle in earlier if there is someone reporting them from the count

[TheTide]

Polls have just opened. Most of the 'news' in the MSM from now until polls close in ~15 hours will be about dogs at polling stations, due to broadcasting rules. However, anecdotes about turnout and other bits and bobs can be found on social media throughout the day.