British Local Elections, May 2024

[Oryxslayer]

Election maps UK seems to think the Savanta poll was incorrectly weighted by REGION and not by COUNTY for the West Midlands mayoral election, meaning that it overestimated Con and underestimated Labour.....

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1782360305437147340

They admitted their failure lol:

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1782389209988296867?t=vjHsD4N8mBKcv4TlMfj4...

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1782389213079519599?t=gjY3GjRnGv9Bm08rBo8m...

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting platform. Going to be an uphill battle for her though. Labour won this ward with an increased majority in 2023.

Fringe party who can very likely be expected to poll accordingly.

(to a degree at least, they are an offshoot of the Women's Equality Party - a more established minor electoral outfit - who however cleared out most of their TERFs after some internal warfare)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

"Pick the least serious candidate in this triptych"

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1783435787432059058?t=xoyJm_YM00tdoc_9...

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1783437413584363827?t=3cvD9jQwZlJ3-LN-...

Perhaps a far more realistic Reform number. Street has a 39/17 positive approval rating, whereas Sunak is underwater with 27/46. He's mostly getting pulled under by voters who didn't participate in 2021 - aka the shifting national environment making the local electorate very different.

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1783436718470791480?t=fOM0nrphi6kwVNIZG3MZ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the previous R&W survey in the West Midlands didn't prompt by name for the mayoral VI, which is tbh pretty poor bordering on negligent given how personalised these contests can be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we must have polling for these contests, can it perhaps be by firms that actually have reasonable (I'm not even demanding 'good') reputations?

[DL]

So Khan is ahead 46-33 in a pure FPTP contest - presumably if London still used the preferential ballot his would scoop virtually all of the second preferences of Green and LibDem voters and the final count would be something like 63-37

[Torrain]

Reform dropping 9% - either proving they’re a mirage, or the mother of all hedging from R&W, surely?

[EastAnglianLefty]

If we must have polling for these contests, can it perhaps be by firms that actually have reasonable (I'm not even demanding 'good') reputations?

I preferred the days when I could take British pollsters more seriously than Canadian pollsters.

[JimJamUK]

So Khan is ahead 46-33 in a pure FPTP contest - presumably if London still used the preferential ballot his would scoop virtually all of the second preferences of Green and LibDem voters and the final count would be something like 63-37

A large chunk of them would abstain so he would end up under 60%.

[DL]

So Khan is ahead 46-33 in a pure FPTP contest - presumably if London still used the preferential ballot his would scoop virtually all of the second preferences of Green and LibDem voters and the final count would be something like 63-37

A large chunk of them would abstain so he would end up under 60%.

Presumably, much fewer people will vote for the smaller parties now that they know they cannot preference one of the major candidates - so no one wants to split the vote and have the wrong person win

[Tintrlvr]

So Khan is ahead 46-33 in a pure FPTP contest - presumably if London still used the preferential ballot his would scoop virtually all of the second preferences of Green and LibDem voters and the final count would be something like 63-37

A large chunk of them would abstain so he would end up under 60%.

Presumably, much fewer people will vote for the smaller parties now that they know they cannot preference one of the major candidates - so no one wants to split the vote and have the wrong person win

Strategic voting pressures are much less likely to be relevant in an election that isn't competitive like the London mayoral race. Also Britain has a long history of people voting for third parties in competitive races generally.

[Oryxslayer]

Southwest (mostly Home Counties)

All Up:

Maidstone: 25 Con – 12 LD – 4 Lab – 3 Green – 11 Indies (5 Con – 5 LD – 2 Lab – 2 Green – 4 Indies in 2023)

Tandridge: 11 LD – 9 Con – 8 Others – 14 Indies (3 LD – 3 Others – 2 Con – 6 Indies in 2023)

Tunbridge Wells: 17 LD – 11 Con – 7 Lab – 10 Others – 3 Indies (5 LD – 5 Others – 3 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Wokingham: 26 LD – 22 Con – 5 Lab – 1 Indie (11 LD – 4 Con – 3 Lab in 2023)


Partial:

Adur: 9 Con – 4 Lab – 1 Green – 1 Indie [Council: 16 Con – 9 Lab – 2 Green – 2 Indies] (7 Con – 5 Lab – 1 Green – 1 Indie in 2022 )

Cherwell: 11 Con - 3 Lab – 1 LD – 1 Indie [Council: 20 Con – 12 Lab – 10 LD – 3 Greens – 3 Indies] (5 Lab – 5 LD – 3 Con – 2 Greens – 1 Indie in 2023)

Crawley: 7 Con – 5 Lab [Council: 20 Lab – 16 Con] (8 Lab – 4 Con in 2023)

Elmbridge: 6 Con – 4 LD – 6 Others [Council: 20 LD – 12 Con – 16 Others in Many Groups] (9 LD – 5 Others – 2 Con in 2023)

Hastings: 7 Con - 3Lab – 1 Green – 1 RefUK – 4 Indies [Council: 10 Con – 6 Lab – 4 Greens – 1 RefUK – 11 Indies] (9 Lab – 4 Con – 3 Greens in 2022 )

Milton Keynes: 9 Con – 6 Lab – 4 LD [Council: 27 Lab – 16 LD – 14 Con] (12 Lab – 6 LD – 2 Con in 2023)

Mole Vally: 11 LD – 1 Con – 2 Others [30 LD – 3 Con – 6 Others] (All up in 2023)

Oxford: 14 Lab - 5 LD – 2 Greens – 5 Indies [Council: 22 Lab – 9 LD – 6 Green – 11 Indies] (15 Lab – 4 LD – 4 Green – 1 Indie in 2022 )

Reading: 12 Lab – 2 Green – 1 Con – 1 LD [Council: 32 Lab – 7 Green – 5 Con – 3 LD – 1 Indie] (11 Lab – 3 Greens – 2 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

Reigate and Banstead: 9 Con – 3 Greens – 1 LD – 2 Others [Council: 23 Con – 11 Greens – 3 LD – 1 Lab – 6 Others in 2 groups – 1 Indie] (7 Con – 4 Greens – 2 Others – 1 LD – 1 Lab in 2023]

Runnymede: 8 Con – 1 LD – 1 RefUK – 2 Others – 1 Indie [Council: 19 Con – 4 Lab – 4 LD – 2 Greens – 1 RefUK – 4 Others – 7 Indies] (5 Con – 2 Lab – 2 LD – 2 Others – 1 Green – 2 Indies in 2023)

West Oxfordshire: 7 Con – 4 Lab – 3 LD – 1 Green – 2 Indies [Council: 17 LD – 16 Con - 11 Lab – 3 Greens – 2 Indies] (6 LD – 6 Con – 4 Lab – 1 Green in 2023)

Woking: 6 LD – 4 Con – 1 Lab [Council: 20 LD – 4 Con – 2 Lab – 4 Indies] (8 LD – 1 Lab – 1 Indie in 2023)

Worthing: 7 Lab – 5 Con – 1 LD [Council: 24 Lab – 11 Con – 1 LD – 1 Green] (9 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Green in 2023)




Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.



2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward. Some councils up did not vote in 2023.

One week until people vote, so I’ll try to make this quick, even though the Southeast is by far the most complex of the regions.

Labour should be safely in control of Reading, Crawley, and Worthing. The latter two being notable because Labour only recently took (back) control, but that is why those two are safe. Like so many other places, the class of councilors up here is more Conservative than preceding years, with them even winning Crawley that year. This means overexposure and the potential for increasing Labour gains.

Labour meanwhile is in a straight fight with the Tories in Adur. The seaside council is nestled between Labour’s Brighton and Worthing gains, but because no seats were up in 2023, the council remains under a tenuous Conservative majority. Labour’s dramatic growth along the Sussex coast meant this was a known target: activists have been working here since the new year to try and take control. The question may not be just toppling tory control, but can Labour sweep for it's own majority.

Milton Keynes meanwhile seems poised to return to a Labour majority after many years in NOC. The Lib-Dems are a factor here, but their incumbents and targets have near-zero overlap with Labour's. Two Tory councilors defected to Labour and a third fell in a Lib-Dem By-Election flip, putting them in such a dire position. Labour needs to repeat only some of their 2023 gains to take the majority, and this class has may more Tory overexposure compared to the 2022 or 2023 results.

The Lib-Dems meanwhile are safely in control of Woking and Mole Valley and will almost certainly take control of Wokingham. Woking is interesting because the council had to declare bankruptcy, usually something that precipitates a change in control. But here the Lib-Dems took power after Tory misadministration became public, and since then have been trying to do the best with their inherited difficulties. Gains therefore are still a possibility, especially since in 2022 and 2023 voters elected zero Tories. Wokingham meanwhile is currently in a Lib-Dem minority government. The only reason it is not a majority is because the 2021 class is overwhelmingly Conservative, whereas 2022 and 2023 were Lib-Dem waves. With all councilors up under new and seemingly favorable lines, the Lib-Dems should take a majority in a council covering one of their GE targets.
 
The Lib-Dems should also be secure in their control of Elmbridge, but potentially in only a minority. They were able to catapult a shock 2019 GE result into subsequent local success, making gains off the MANY residents groups and Conservatives. Now they are  the largest party and face the last class of councilors with a noticeable Tory presence. If the Lib-Dems repeat their gains from 2023 they take a majority of 1, but not all of these seats are held by Tories like in 2023. So they would have to outperform past results and go against the residents groups to make a majority likely – something hard to measure since the Lib-Dems didn’t put resources or sometimes even candidates against the groups in 2023.
 
Oxford and Hastings are in comparable positions of the councilor’s own makings. Both were previously controlled by Labour, a majority in Oxford and a minority in Hastings, but then both councils saw significant Labour defections in reaction to the war in Gaza. This is despite both councils having limited Muslim populations, though in Hastings this was likely an excuse for deeper differences between Local and national Labour groups. In Oxford Labour maintained a minority – and could retake the majority since enough defectors are up for reelection – but in Hastings the Independents formed a new administration with the Greens.

That is the key divergence. In Oxford Labour could face an activist backlash if voters go Green but barring that should have control. Hastings meanwhile is a free for all. The Greens are going in to try and expand their delegation after taking leadership through the defections, the Tories have a large number of incumbents to defend after the 2021 wave, and Labour are still pushing. Complicating matters are tensions between the Labour mayor and the chaotic coalition, and constant whispers of financial difficulties. Any outcome is imaginable, even Labour doing what they did last year in Brighton and retaking a majority.

Cherwell, Tunbridge Wells, and West Oxfordshire are three councils where the situation can be generalized as a Lib-Dem and Labour (and localists in Tunbridge) team-up to force something close to a duopoly versus the Conservatives. Neither party on its own can win their own majority, neither presently can eliminate the other, but together they do/will hold power. There is no alliance between the the parties electorally, but recently voters behaved tactically in most circumstances. In all three Labour is concentrating in a urban area – Banbury, Whitney, and Tunbridge Wells town – with the Lib-Dems advancing elsewhere. Cherwell is the only one not under a coalition administration, but that’s because Labour refused to work with the Greens in 2023, leaving the council with a Tory minority. In all three The Conservatives are overexposed cause of the 2021 wave, enabling all all parties to potentially make gains. In Tunbridge Wells this is especially the case with all councilors up, and under new lines that seemingly hurt the rural Localists and Tories the most. Though the Lib-Dems are pouring resources into Tunbridge Wells with Ed Davey making a stop early in the campaign: partially to prepare for the GE and partially try for a majority since the all-up election affords them this possibility.

Maidstone, Reigate, and Runnymede form the next grouping which might be labeled ‘coalitions of chaos.’ In all three the Tories hold minorities versus a very fractured opposition. The Greens and Lib-Dems top the pile in Reigate and Maidstone respectively, but a rival administration would need at least 4 groups to work together in all 3 councils. Yet people dislike the Tories and therefore elected a messy constellation of non-Tory councilors in 2023. In Runnymede these issues are compounded by large council debts. In Reigate the Greens are trying to make a push, but the council has received less attention than other contests. All councilors are up in Maidstone, which may end up facilitating anti-Tory unity among voters. The Conservative administrations though could persist in these councils either by exploiting a split opposition vote, or through exploiting a divided council that cannot agree to work together.

Finally, all seats are up in Tandridge though change here most likely can only happen through negotiations. This presently is a localist stronghold: the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group is solid and another third of councilors are Independents. Those two have been working together since 2021. If the growing Lib-Dems win enough seats then maybe they could lead a new coalition, but more likely is a reaffirmation of support for the peculiar coalition.

[JimJamUK]

Cherwell, Tunbridge Wells, and West Oxfordshire are three councils where the situation can be generalized as a Lib-Dem and Labour (and localists in Tunbridge) team-up to force something close to a duopoly versus the Conservatives. Neither party on its own can win their own majority, neither presently can eliminate the other, but together they do/will hold power. There is no alliance between the the parties electorally, but recently voters behaved tactically in most circumstances. In all three Labour is concentrating in a urban area – Banbury, Whitney, and Tunbridge Wells town – with the Lib-Dems advancing elsewhere. Cherwell is the only one not under a coalition administration, but that’s because Labour refused to work with the Greens in 2023, leaving the council with a Tory minority. In all three The Conservatives are overexposed cause of the 2021 wave, enabling all all parties to potentially make gains.

Not quite. Labour were the largest party in a potential non-Tory coalition so were expected to take control. However, the Lib Dems and Greens formed one council group and therefore claimed a Lib Dem should lead the council. Labour were understandably a bit narked off with these shenanigans and ultimately the Tories retained minority control. Whether relationships have healed, the Tories falling further into minority, or one opposition party doing particularly well/badly will change this dynamic we’ll have to wait and see.

[YL]

Mayor polls from More in Common. Street narrowly ahead, Driscoll close in the North East, Labour ahead in Notts/Derbys and Burnham unsurprisingly winning in a landslide.

North East

McGuinness (Lab) 35
Driscoll (Ind) 33
Donaghy (Reform UK) 14
Renner-Thompson (Con) 11
Gray (Green) 4
King (Lib Dem) 4

West Midlands

Street (Con) 41
Parker (Lab) 39
Harper-Nunes (Green) 8
Williams (Reform UK) 8
Yakoob (Ind) 3
Virk (Lib Dem) 1

Greater Manchester

Burnham (Lab) 63
Barker (Reform UK) 12
Buckley (Ind) 9
Evans (Con) 9
Austin (Lib Dem) 4
Spencer (Green) 4

"East Midlands" (Notts/Derbys)

Ward (Lab) 41
Bradley (Con) 28
Graves (Reform UK) 14
Adlington-Stringer (Green) 9
Relf (Ind) 4
Tamblyn-Saville (Lib Dem) 4

Details here

[JimJamUK]

North East

McGuinness (Lab) 35
Driscoll (Ind) 33
Donaghy (Reform UK) 14
Renner-Thompson (Con) 11
Gray (Green) 4
King (Lib Dem) 4

FWIW, there is a massive turnout gap in Driscoll’s favour and he is basically level with the Conservative candidate among Conservative voters. Far from a left wing challenger, if this poll is true he’s basically the anti-left candidate. There does seem to be a big issue with political engagement with this. The pollster themselves are caveating it by saying their focus group is not paying attention to the race and don’t know who Driscoll is, which makes the likelihood of him winning as an independent rather unlikely. It’s certainly true that he was very low profile until his bust-up with Labour, and his actual campaign seems to largely amount to spending shed loads on social media advertising touting ‘his’ achievements as mayor.

[Cassius]

The real question is not who will win all of these mayoral contests (Labour), but rather whether the turnout in any of them will manage to crawl across the 40% line this time round. Although the target would actually be 35% for several of them and 30(!)% in the case of the ‘Liverpool City Region’ (aka Merseyside) mayoralty.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More in Common's output has never been much good, and the internals of some of these look, how do we say, 'clown car'. They may be right (these contests are rather odd affairs) but if they are it will generally be by accident. Again, it's striking that the only firms polling these elections are not very credible ones.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour figure in West Mids looks suspiciously low - are they *really* down on 2017 and 2021? Even more so given that the "protest" candidate targeting their left flank over Gaza is only on 3%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One curiosity is that for all of these polls they have applied a very heavy turnout weight, but have not weighted for SES in any form at all and have not weighted based on geographical sub-regions of some kind either. Leaving any other issues aside, there are a few obvious problems that could arise from that.

[Blair]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

[Oryxslayer]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

On that point YouGov today had both incumbents up narrowly. They are definitely being hyped up as the races to watch, even though they really shouldn't IMO, and it probably works to the Tories detriment.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1785076688746934574?t=SqCB81WRXrpmjC9skok0j...

Ben Walker looks to have the national map like last year up tomorrow(?) on the New Statesman, now everyone else can see something like the data I had to compile in GIS and have sporadically been posting. Which I created and have been posting cause this wasn't available earlier. Far later than last year, but last year things got more attention.

In that vein,  I miss the Twitch/YT streams/podcasts he did back then, they were helpful in aggregating local reports and specific situations.  Hope he still does one on Thursday.

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

On that point YouGov today had both incumbents up narrowly. They are definitely being hyped up as the races to watch, even though they really shouldn't IMO, and it probably works to the Tories detriment.

Most obviously, they need both of them to *actually* win. An awful lot is being staked on what remain likely to be two rather close contests. This is one of the differences between now and the (in)famous Wandsworth and Westminster strategy in 1990 (was it *really* 34 years ago now??) given that both of those were actually Tory blowouts and clearly foreseen by most as such some time beforehand.

[DL]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

Pardon my ignorance but when you say these contests did NOT seem close at the start of the year - is that because people assumed both would be easy Labour pickups in what promises to be a Tory meltdown in the locals or that because people assumed the Tory incumbents had enough personal popularity to be unbeatable?