British Local Elections, May 2024

[YL]

One thing about Reform UK is that they are a very top down party, which can make it hard to develop a proper organisation. I note that one of their few full slates this time is in Bolton, where they are in an alliance with a localist party called "Bolton for Change", and their only actual electoral success has been in Derby, where again they are in an alliance with a localist organisation.

At this rate though they are struggling find enough candidates to fulfil their pledge to contest every seat in the General Election. And some of those they have found have been "interesting".

[CumbrianLefty]

Though they are clearly prioritising the coming GE over local elections, which clearly sets them apart from not just the LibDems and Greens but some of the bigger "minor" parties. Which doesn't mean such an approach *can't* be successful - the coming election may well be an interesting test of this.

[JimJamUK]

The thing is, Reform ‘should’ want some credible 2nd places at the general election which could be greatly assisted by properly establishing themselves in a few areas. Even though UKIP were organisationally a bit of a shambles at times, they still did have a number of places where they elected councillors, were capable of campaigning, and achieved better results than they got in similar areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think everywhere where they have a full slate or close to one they were close to that last year as well? Which is not a great sign for them.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Though they are clearly prioritising the coming GE over local elections, which clearly sets them apart from not just the LibDems and Greens but some of the bigger "minor" parties. Which doesn't mean such an approach *can't* be successful - the coming election may well be an interesting test of this.

I do understand why they may be going for that strategy (all of ukip's investment in locals just landed them with a small battalion of feuding local weirdos who almost all dropped out of the party), but it means they're heading into the general with very little idea where their target seats will be (if there are indeed any).

[warandwar]

I think the SDP's reincarnation shows that if another far-right party like Reform or a far-leff party tried pouring all their resources and volunteers all into one area they could probably win. Realistically speaking if you just concentrated like 100 volunteers in one ward with decently favorable demographics you could win. I dont get the sense these are terribly professional operations. But i think most of these candidates are running to sit on a stage once and yell at people.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Low turnout elections (in areas that are rather working class and rather white, turnout in local elections can sometimes be considerably lower than half seen at a GE) in which most people are motivated by things like bin collections ought to be good territory for fringe parties, full stop.

[Blair]

I think there's a good chance that there potential GE vote basically gets lost in the campaign and they basically end up getting what I could unfairly call the 'online boomer' vote combined with people who think the Tories haven't been right wing enough; this might get you 6-7% of the vote, but without a local base where are they going to target?

Ashfield? Clacton?

The first is the classic problem with defections; you end up fighting seats you wouldn't naturally on paper. Which I assume was a problem for the SDP?

The other problem with Reform is that both with their leader and their brand is much more of a 'we're a right wing protest party' rather than a 'we're a populist pro-brexit party'; it's a small difference and one of the tensions that existed in UKIP but I do wonder if they're doomed to basically do what the referendum party did in 1997- take a 1-2K votes and tip 20-30 marginals to Labour and then dissapear.

[TheTide]

It has been suggested that a lot of the Reform support in the polls is merely another way of saying 'abstain' or 'NOTA'. Of course most pollsters have such options available in their surveys, but the overall age profile of Reform appears to be significantly older and the whole 'civic duty' concept of voting is stronger and thus there is more reluctance to check those actual options.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think there's a good chance that there potential GE vote basically gets lost in the campaign and they basically end up getting what I could unfairly call the 'online boomer' vote combined with people who think the Tories haven't been right wing enough; this might get you 6-7% of the vote, but without a local base where are they going to target?

The maybe honest answer from some Reform people is "this election is all about finding out where our 2029 targets should be" - when they will also hope Labour becoming more unpopular (maybe) will help them. Having said that, even this presumes getting a fairly decent overall vote.

Re your later comment, James Goldsmith announced beforehand that the Referendum Party would be a one election operation and wound up subsequently - and of course he died soon afterwards anyway. Quite a few of its standard bearers soon migrated into UKIP.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though they are clearly prioritising the coming GE over local elections, which clearly sets them apart from not just the LibDems and Greens but some of the bigger "minor" parties. Which doesn't mean such an approach *can't* be successful - the coming election may well be an interesting test of this.

I do understand why they may be going for that strategy (all of ukip's investment in locals just landed them with a small battalion of feuding local weirdos who almost all dropped out of the party), but it means they're heading into the general with very little idea where their target seats will be (if there are indeed any).

The difference now is that the local weirdos are being made parliamentary candidates then dropped a month later when their weird and/or extremely racist and/or misogynist comments come to light.

It's not the major benefit of running a doorstep-focused election campaign, but one benefit of it is that it keeps your activists off Twitter for a bit.

[Oryxslayer]

So I posted about this data-focused Twitter thread in the main GE thread, but I'm going to mention it here as well. Obviously local elections are not national ones, and there are more viable tickets. However,  the polling analysis found that any losses among activist left voters were overwhelmingly drowned out by other votes, and the activists were not exactly dropping off in droves cause the "time for change" drive is so strong.  He also goes on to mention a 10% drop in Labour support in Muslim areas, which is large but they still lead.

Locally,  this would suggest that Labour have little to be afraid of. Students and young activist types have horrible local election turnout rates, and only losing 10% among Muslims will give them most of the defector wards back. But local context and campaigns targeting that context matters,  which may allow for things to diverge from the data.

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1778706279147397598?t=oNXlk0a3tcOzhX9sFX-d8w...

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1778707803894436157?t=fNf226Wiyqg1wCK36nNFBQ...

[Blair]

Why do so many fringe people run in London mayoral races?

I mean both in the sense of is the nomination process easy and do people think there’s a benefit?

[Oryxslayer]

Estimated declaration times for council local results, which will go into the weekend. Here's a copy of the list, with anything immediately interesting bolded. Overall, I would say the timetable favors Hartlepool, Rushmoor, Southend, or some combination becoming the "Labour surge" narrative setter:


Overnight May 3:


– 1.30 am: Hartlepool, Rochford, Sunderland, Cumbria P&C

– 2 am: Bolton, Gosport, Ipswich, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North East Lincolnshire, South Tyneside, Wigan

– 2.30 am: Chorley, Eastleigh, Fareham, Hart, Oldham, Portsmouth, Rushmoor, Southend-on-Sea, Avon & Somerset P&C

– 2.45 am: Exeter

– 3 am: Hull, Lincoln, Sefton, Tameside, Thurrock, Lincolnshire P&C

– 3.15 am: Reading

– 3.30 am: Colchester, Gateshead, Harlow, Redditch, Stockport

– 4 am: Peterborough, Plymouth

– 4.30 am: Southampton

– 8.30 am Winchester


May 3 Evening:


– 12 pm: Blackburn with Darwen, Walsall, North East Mayor

– 12.30 pm: Broxbourne, Havant, Tees Valley Mayor

– 1 pm: Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Manchester, Preston, Watford, Welwyn Hatfield, Gwent P&C, North Wales P&C, Nottinghamshire P&C

– 1.30 pm: Burnley, Sheffield, West Oxfordshire, Humberside P&C

– 2 pm: Basildon, Brentwood, Hyndburn, Knowsley, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Rossendale, East Midlands Mayor, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough P&C, Hampshire P&C, Suffolk P&C

– 2.30 pm: Crawley, Rochdale, Solihull

– 3 pm: Barnsley, Hastings, Kirklees, Maidstone, Three Rivers, York & North Yorkshire
Mayor, Bedfordshire P&C, Dyfed-Powys P&C, Norfolk P&C, Surrey P&C

– 3.30 pm: Halton, Milton Keynes, Sandwell, Trafford, Leicestershire P&C

– 4 pm: Adur, Bury, Calderdale, Cheltenham, Epping Forest, Pendle, St Albans, Swindon, Tamworth, Tunbridge Wells, Woking, Wokingham, Essex P&C, Lancashire P&C, Northamptonshire P&C, South Wales P&C, Staffordshire P&C

– 4.30 pm: Dudley, Leeds, Northumbria P&C

– 5 pm: Basingstoke & Deane, Bradford, Cambridge, Coventry, Oxford, Rotherham, Runnymede, Tandridge, Worthing, Cleveland P&C, Devon & Cornwall P&C, Durham P&C, Gloucestershire P&C

– 5.30 pm: Rugby, Wolverhampton, Worcester

– 5.45 pm: Cherwell

– 6 pm: Mole Valley, North Hertfordshire, Reigate & Banstead, Stevenage, Derbyshire P&C, West Mercia P&C

– 6.30 pm: Bristol, Elmbridge

– 7 pm: Dorset, Wakefield

– 8 pm: West Lancashire

– 10 pm: Gloucester


Saturday May 4:


– 12 pm: Liverpool City Mayor

– 1 pm: Hertfordshire P&C

– 1.30 pm: London Mayor (results by district)

– 2 pm: South Yorkshire Mayor, Thames Valley P&C

– 2.30 pm: Warwickshire P&C, West Midlands P&C

– 3 pm: Norwich, West Midlands Mayor, Cheshire P&C, Dorset P&C

– 3.15 pm: West Yorkshire Mayor

– 3.30 pm: Merseyside P&C

– 4 pm: North Tyneside, Stroud, Warrington, Greater Manchester Mayor, Wiltshire P&C

– 7pm Salford Mayor


Sunday May 5:


– 3 pm: Kent P&C

– 3.30 pm: Sussex P&C

– 5 pm: Salford

[Torrain]

Thanks for that - the order of declarations are going to be pretty vital for narrative-setting, and any hypothetical moves against the PM. If Portsmouth, in particular, comes in early and is dire for the government, it certainly cuts off one potential challenger’s argument to succeed Sunak...

[TheTide]

Individual seat results should start being declared about an hour after the polls close.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Blackpool South declaration (presumably overnight) will be fairly important for narrative setting.

I would also think the Avon & Somerset PCC might be quite significant - Labour weren't too far off winning it in 2021 on second preferences and the areas with concomitant local elections are much better for Labour than the Tories.

[Duke of York]

How do they make the estimate for when a council will be declared?

[TheTide]

How do they make the estimate for when a council will be declared?

They have some kind of information on when counting is due to begin, I would presume.

[Oryxslayer]

How do they make the estimate for when a council will be declared?

They have some kind of information on when counting is due to begin, I would presume.

Each council sets their time based on any number of influencing factors, and then the press eventually creates an aggregate so they know what to talk about and where to look at what time.

[Coldstream]

The Blackpool South declaration (presumably overnight) will be fairly important for narrative setting.

I would also think the Avon & Somerset PCC might be quite significant - Labour weren't too far off winning it in 2021 on second preferences and the areas with concomitant local elections are much better for Labour than the Tories.

We’ve got a chance at the PCC, and under the old system we’d win it easily. But I fear that too many people in Bristol will vote straight ticket Green, and people in somerset (the actual county - not including Banes/North somerset) are too conditioned to vote Lib Dem that we’ll fall just short.

[CumbrianLefty]

You could see the Tories getting clobbered everywhere, though.

If so, who is going to win if not Labour?

[Blair]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

[Oryxslayer]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

Well the boundaries are simple: all the contiguous East Midlands that was willing to join such a deal. Lincolnshire is setting up arrangements for their own combined mayor presently, so they are out. Leicestershire (and Rutland) wanted in, but Leicester city and especially local mayor Sir Peter Soulsby seemingly put his foot down firmly against the deal. Since both the city and the shire needed to join as a pair, they are out. And even if Northamptonshire wanted in they now would be disconnected.

In terms of results...should be strongly for Labour in this environment right? Though that's just a top-down perspective, maybe things are better for Bradley or worse for Ward locally, but nothing comes up under a brief news search.

[Coldstream]

You could see the Tories getting clobbered everywhere, though.

If so, who is going to win if not Labour?

I don’t think the Tories winning with under 30% of the vote in Avon & Somerset is that unrealistic.