Republican South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Polls in South Carolina will be open from 7am to 7pm Eastern.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until after all the polls have closed at 7pm.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep
AP: link
state election commission: http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/59148/158824/en/summary.html

[Mr. Morden]

Polls are now open.  A reporter from a TV station in Greenville took this picture of people lined up before 7am, waiting for the polls to open:



I guess the "I'm going to line up to vote at 7am on a Saturday morning" demographic is pretty old.

[Mr. Morden]

By profiling each of the people in that picture, can we estimate whether the polls systematically overestimated or underestimated support for any particular candidate?

[Mr. Morden]

More exit info:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219

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[Mr. Morden]

Also:

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[Mr. Morden]

From Jake Tapper:

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/701169524847079424

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[Mr. Morden]

45% decided within the last week...

That's actually about the same as the number was in New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219

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[Mr. Morden]

Should be noted that while terrorism is the #1 issue for voters in this exit poll, it was only the #3 issue in both Iowa and NH.

[Mr. Morden]

Early hints as to candidate preferences:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219

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[Mr. Morden]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/politics/south-carolina-exit-polls/

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[Mr. Morden]

New exit info:

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Any estimates as to what % of the electorate that is?

According to this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=229815.msg4923857#msg4923857

it's about 40%.

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[Mr. Morden]

Any estimates as to what % of the electorate that is?

Like, all of it.

We don't know the proportion of the ones who are angry to the total voters. So this means squat (we already knew that Trump would get most of these)!

As I just noted, the earlier story by ABC said that the "angry" faction is about 40% of all the primary voters today.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/701187499104796673

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/results-from-south-carolinas-gop-primary-to-soon-trickle-in/

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[Mr. Morden]

Fox exit poll (if my math is right):

Trump 30%
Cruz 25.5%
Rubio 24%

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll:

Trump 30%
Cruz 25.5%
Rubio 24%
Kasich 7.5%
Bush 6.5%
Carson 6.5%

Taken from here:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/south-carolina

and averaging male/female #s.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Trump does best in counties with a large black population:

[Mr. Morden]

Per Nate Cohn on Twitter: GOP turnout up (on average) 24% in counties that have completed reporting.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump does best in counties with a large black population:

Awesome graphic.

Did you run that yourself or find it online?

No, I didn't make it myself.  I got it from Nate Cohn on Twitter.