Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1450204330053840902

Youngkin has had his own school gaffe.. lmaooo

Right? How is this not a bigger gaffe than T-Mac's? Youngkin is literally calling the entire VA school system sh**t, offending not just the students but all of the teachers and schoolworkers.

[wbrocks67]

How will Youngkin spin this?

https://twitter.com/GrantWoods/status/1450489815917420548

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has Biden approval at 48/49 for Sept. 14-Oct. 13, 2021.

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/18/biden-approval-rating-virginia-gubernatorial-race/

This is actually better than I expected for Biden and if those numbers hold I think McAuliffe is winning this.

Glenn Youngkin and the GOP really needs Biden to being doing a lot worse in that state because voters being split down the middle when it comes to the president's approval is not going to cut it for Youngkin if actually wants to win this.

also, this goes back to 9/14, when his position was a bit worse, so I wonder what the data is showing for the last week or so and if it has improved.

Whose position was  a bit worse? Biden's? If so, his (national) approvals was a bit better at 9/14 according to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1450204330053840902
Youngkin has had his own school gaffe.. lmaooo

How's that a gaffe?

Youngkin is literally taking a sh**t on the entire VA education system. That has direct and indirect implications. You can't honestly say that T-Mac's words out of context are somehow a gaffe and not Youngkin saying that the entire VA educational system is horrific.

[wbrocks67]

So, question for those of you who are arguing mcauliffe's "parents and education" statement wasn't problematic....why is mcauliffe spending time and resources producing an ad saying it was "taken out of context"?

They know it didn't play well. It probably won't matter, but it didn't help either.

Also....lmfao at a poster above trying to tie youngkin to trump's heartless powell statement.

When you have literally nothing else to run on, you make it all trump trump trump.

the people of va deserve a better campaign.

Not tying Youngkin, but given that he got Trumps endorsement and Trump is out there doing rallies for him, he needs to respond to what the leader of his party is saying.

Also, McAuliffe is clearly doing the teachers ad to not let the GOP control the narrative. Regardless if it's hurting him or not, Youngkin keeps on trying to make it a central part of the campaign, so T-Mac going right after the comment and putting an ad out blunts Youngkin from pushing it constantly.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has Biden approval at 48/49 for Sept. 14-Oct. 13, 2021.

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/18/biden-approval-rating-virginia-gubernatorial-race/

This is actually better than I expected for Biden and if those numbers hold I think McAuliffe is winning this.

Glenn Youngkin and the GOP really needs Biden to being doing a lot worse in that state because voters being split down the middle when it comes to the president's approval is not going to cut it for Youngkin if actually wants to win this.

also, this goes back to 9/14, when his position was a bit worse, so I wonder what the data is showing for the last week or so and if it has improved.

Whose position was  a bit worse? Biden's? If so, his (national) approvals was a bit better at 9/14 according to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1450204330053840902
Youngkin has had his own school gaffe.. lmaooo

How's that a gaffe?

Youngkin is literally taking a sh**t on the entire VA education system. That has direct and indirect implications. You can't honestly say that T-Mac's words out of context are somehow a gaffe and not Youngkin saying that the entire VA educational system is horrific.

It's you who is saying this.

He says in this tweet "Glenn Youngkin will highlight the failure of Virginia's school system and offer his vision to make our schools worthy of our children."

IMO, it's a generic message. I'll tell you about a failure of X and offer a vision of how to fix XYZ.

How is this not sh**tting all over all of VA's teachers and staff?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1450104657167011844

Byler is notoriously always looking for a bright spot for the GOP, so not surprised he's trying to pull for McAuliffe to only do +4.

[wbrocks67]

So, question for those of you who are arguing mcauliffe's "parents and education" statement wasn't problematic....why is mcauliffe spending time and resources producing an ad saying it was "taken out of context"?

They know it didn't play well. It probably won't matter, but it didn't help either.

Also....lmfao at a poster above trying to tie youngkin to trump's heartless powell statement.

When you have literally nothing else to run on, you make it all trump trump trump.

the people of va deserve a better campaign.

Politicians are always paranoid, McAuliffe has to run as if he's down by a point but he isn't actually.

Can't decide if he's tied/losing in his internals and genuinely panicking or he's still up 2-4 and is trying to scare Dems into turning out so he can have a chance at a 2017 result.

Or maybe it's neither.

It's like saying "McAulife is scared and that's why he's bringing in Obama, Biden, Harris, Abrams, etc."

Those people would be brought in whether his internals said +10 or -10.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1450544811396763650

[wbrocks67]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years
B) T-Mac HAS been talking about the issues. Both have. Both are also going after other elements (T-Mac after Trumpkin, Youngkin after stupid issues like CRT), but both HAVE ALSO talked about main issues. Not sure where you're getting that T-Mac is exclusively talking about Trump and nothing else.

Not really sure how you get T-Mac running the most embarrasing gov campaign in recent memory in response to a tweet of... Youngkin's campaign rally and a few Dem *activists* with a Trump balloon outside.

[wbrocks67]

I know there’s no point in arguing with him, but this...

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years

...has reached obsessive levels at this point. You keep comparing this to 2017, but there’s a slight difference here: Back then, we had a deeply unpopular Republican President and a depressed GOP base. Now, we have a (nationally) very unpopular Democratic President and a (presumably) far more energized GOP base.

It’s not that hard to figure out why polling may have 'underestimated' Republicans in 2009 and 2013 and why it 'underestimated' Democrats in 2017.

Except there's no proof that the GOP is energized, especially without Trump on the ticket. They could be, but it remains to be seen. And the 'underestimated' thing is a question mark too. As we've seen, and others have brought this up, when Trump is not on the ballot, Democrats tend to be underestimated. When he IS on the ballot, Dems are overestimated. So there are other factors at play here, especially with the new Dem college+ white coalition as well that aren't solely just based on who is in the white house.

[wbrocks67]

mcauliffe, imo, is doing a disservice to a gubernatorial campaign. I have never in my life seen a candidate make the entire campaign about a former president. ever.

Corzine didn't do it in NJ, the dems didn't do it in va in 2009, etc

Newsom quite successfully used Trump and Covid to his advantage why shouldn’t TMAC do the same.

I am fine with mcauliffe using covid policy in the campaign.

What I am NOT ok with is a person running for governor avoiding talking about any issue specific to his state: education, job policy, spending, taxes, etc, instead opting for vague references to a former president who has absolutely zero bearing on state level policymaking.

It just rubs me the wrong way, that's all. I don't think it is intellectual or interesting.

Youngkin seems to be running a more issues-based campaign.

I do understand why mcaualiffe is doing what he is doing, though: democrats are stalled in DC, and biden's ratings in va are mediocre at  best.

It's going to be insufferable and, frankly, lazy, to see a party go around the country next year screaming "TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, WHATBOUT TRUMP, NO NO DON'T ASK THAT, ASK ABOUT DRUMPF".

reminds me of GOP and "socialism".

Like I agree with you that it is lazy and unhealthy for all campaigns to follow this model. However it’s honestly like Republicans didn’t just do this under Obama by going Obama bad vote for us. Even under Trump it was all about Pelosi and the radical left.

So I don’t really blame democrats for using this strategy as it’s proven to be effective in states that lean in your parties direction.

I get it, but considering the polling in va suggests a tighter race than the state has been in recent years, maybe mcauliffe needs to start talking about the issues more.

trump is yesterday's news to many voters.

A) this is literally the same exact polling average as 2017. Northam had a final polling average of +3. T-Mac is at +3. So, no, it's not any tighter than it's been in years
B) T-Mac HAS been talking about the issues. Both have. Both are also going after other elements (T-Mac after Trumpkin, Youngkin after stupid issues like CRT), but both HAVE ALSO talked about main issues. Not sure where you're getting that T-Mac is exclusively talking about Trump and nothing else.

Not really sure how you get T-Mac running the most embarrasing gov campaign in recent memory in response to a tweet of... Youngkin's campaign rally and a few Dem *activists* with a Trump balloon outside.

I don't think you saw my earlier question to you, so I'll repeat it again. What margin do you believe McAuliffe will win by?

I have no idea. My opinion is irrelevant. My gripe comes mostly with pundits and journalists who care more about a narrative than facts, evidence, and history.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

[wbrocks67]

Huh. It appears that reporter was being completely disingenuous. This is a Sinclair-operated station though, which is not surprising.

https://twitter.com/Renzo_Olivari/status/1450823592200056839

[wbrocks67]

Obama has cut an ad for T-Mac. Same timing as CA race.

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1450877950941876229

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1450939025561464842

Well yes, this is a more favorable poll clearly for the GOP than they've gotten recently, so that's not a big surprise.

[wbrocks67]

McAuliffe might not win by a lot, but my reaction to Atlas still acting as though Virginia is a swing state in 2021:

Tell that to the media too.

At this rate, I'm expecting Morning Joe to call it for Youngkin this year just like they did for Gillepsie in 2017.

[wbrocks67]

This seems decidedly toxic. George Soros is now being the scapegaot for... school board members? Really? Youngkin is trash.

https://twitter.com/BruceLeshan/status/1450912585205833735

[wbrocks67]

Wonder if WaPo will release a VA poll this time around, they did two in October 2017.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/a-week-before-election-day-new-poll-finds-tightening-race-for-va-governor/2017/10/31/61190912-bd7d-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html

Some of these quotes really are like deja vu; just change out GIllepsie for Youngkin and things like MS-13 for CRT and boom, same race lmao.

"But they may be effective — appealing to “Build That Wall” Trump voters as well as suburbanites unnerved by brutal slayings attributed to the gang."

"Those numbers suggest that Gillespie, who has struggled at times with Virginia’s purple-state politics in the Trump era, has successfully threaded the needle with his ads"

"In a sign that Democrats fear that Gillespie’s message is breaking through,"

"We have a very competitive race, largely about mobilizing the base” for each candidate, "

"Among registered voters, an identical 71 percent of both Northam and Gillespie supporters say they are certain to vote or have already done so,"

[wbrocks67]

It used to be said that VA had a preference for voting for governor the opposite of the party that controlled the WH (until 2013), but personally I think that was just a coincidence helped by VA being competitive enough and the "out party" performing better as usual because Americans tend to just mindlessly blame whoever is in charge for their woes.

Still, it doesn't mean Democrats won't pay a penalty this year for a (currently) unpopular Dem president weighing them down. OTOH, the Democratic coalition absorbing so many suburban professional class voters does give it an ideal coalition for off-year/midterm elections. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is what is so interesting and what will be most pertinent. White College grads are the highest turnout mid-term/off year group, so now that that its more of a Democratic leaning group than it has been in the past, how does that change the calculus?

[wbrocks67]

The bottom line is McAuliffe needs something to break the all education, all the time news cycle before election day. 

Even if that line was hurting T-Mac, him putting that ad out blunted it and I'm sure stopped any momentum Youngkin had on the issue.

With that said, with all the talk of education and CRT and parents, the Monmouth poll still only had Youngkin and T-Mac tied on education. Youngkin clearly not running away with that issue.

[wbrocks67]

It’s getting worse in loudon. This isn’t daily wire anymore reporting it

It’s actual local news

I honestly hope the school board members sleep in absolute terror tonight and even urinate in their beds thinking about how bad it is going to get for them in the coming days

https://mobile.twitter.com/WTOP/status/1451338174328881160

This is an awful story and everyone that is involved should probably lose their job, but I don't understand how this is a state-wide issue.

The school board is non-partisan (and I have no idea what their beliefs are), the Sheriff is a Republican, and I have no idea what the principal is.  Maybe I'm missing something but is there any reason why this relates to the gubernatorial election?

That's National News.  The Loudon County School Board was not reporting sexual assaults. Most notably, one where a transgender boy assaulted a girl in the girl's bathroom.  McAuliffe sided with the school board.  And then people really got pissed when Biden threatened to send the DOJ after school board protestors.  

Sigh. That's not what happpened. It's not just "school board protestors", it was towards the absolutely unhinged people who were coming to literally threaten the lives of school workers... which shouldn't be a partisan issue. Apparently it's totally okay though for parents, or whoever, to come to meetings and threaten the lives of people who work at the school in the name of "education"!

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1451228939511336967

[wbrocks67]

Anyway, Harris was in VA last night.

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1451322796471169035

[wbrocks67]

Anyway, Harris was in VA last night.

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1451322796471169035

So Republicans are making it an issue to protect people who are rioting?

I think you meant to quote the DOJ thing but yes, basically. Essentially the GOP is mad that the DOJ is going after these deranged lunatics going to school board meetings looking to threaten people. GOP trying to create a narrative that DOJ is going "after" "concerned parents" which is not at all what is going on.

Again, not sure how this is playing in the suburbs, but I don't imagine the lunatics going to school board meetings and yelling about masks and how they're going to "get" school board members is supposed to help GOP?

[wbrocks67]

I don't know if it was mentioned here but Biden will be in VA to campaign with T-Mac on Tuesday.

[wbrocks67]

Talk about gaffes, Youngkin's personal instinct is a "no" on same-sex marriage:

https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1451506339931463680