Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[Ben.]

Newest Mason-Dixon Poll.
Kaine: 38
Kilgore: 37
Potts: 9

Very surprising.

Good news is that it’s a Mason-Dixon Poll and they usually know what their doing especially when polling in the south, and Florida in particular.

The though did cross my mind that the fact that Kilgore is identified as the “Republican Candidate” is helping him in the polls, many of those rural voters who put Warner in office in 2001 are naturally republican and no doubt have not given much thought to this election yet and so will be saying they’ll vote for the Republican candidate.

As the campaign heats up however and Kaine (no doubt with the strong support of Warner) is perceived as another moderate democrat in the mould of the popular Warner his numbers should creep back up especially amongst the conservative rural voters who backed Warner last time round.

In the end I think that the nearer we get to the time immediately leading up to the election the better Kaine’s polling will look, that said you have to assume that he will continue to fight a solid campaign and continue to raise enough cash*… so I think the result will be close and Kilgore is polling better at the moment thanks to his party identification, this IMHO will change as the election nears and the “Warner Republicans” (like the sound of that) begin to make their minds up about Kaine.

* = Is there such a thing in elections as “enough cash”?       

[Ben.]

As I keep saying Kaine will get a ‘second wind’ towards the end of the campaign.

At the moment the ‘Warner Republicans’, mostly conservative, rural voters in the panhandle and the west of the state are polling, as supporting the candidate with the R next to their name, this is not the same as supporting Kilgore. Towards the end of the campaign the personalities of the candidates are likely to come into play and this should provide Kaine a “Warner Democrat” with a second wind… I don’t know if it’ll be enough to secure a win though, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see it happen.         

[Ben.]

Both Kaine and Kilgore are uninspiring candidates, Kaine should be doing well because of his links to a successful and very popular outgoing incumbent and his success in Richmond, Kilgore should be doing better as he’s the GOP candidate for Governor in VA, facing a lacklusta Democratic campaign! That simple… neither are really stepping up to the plate on this one

Naturally I’d favour Kaine, but on top of my partisan attachment to him he seems like a decent enough well meaning sorta guy who’d be good for Virginia, Kilgore seems like a fundamentally weak potential governor. Who if anything could pose a serious threat to the positive legacy left by Warner.           

[Ben.]

Anyone catch the debates last night?  Apparently Kaine and Tim Russert (moderator) teamed up to embarrass Kilgore.  Here is a couple snip's from the Washington Post article.


Kaine was aggressive in challenging the men he referred to as his two Republican opponents. He called Kilgore "mean-spirited" and repeatedly accused him of wanting to turn back progress made under Gov. Mark R. Warner (D).

"Jerry Kilgore has fought against every reform that Mark Warner and I have worked on in the last three years," Kaine said
----

During the first debate, Kilgore said Kaine is a "liberal" whose main goal would be to raise taxes while doing nothing to improve transportation in Northern Virginia.

"Just admit it, Tim," Kilgore said in one of many personal exchanges between the two men. "You raised taxes. He's afraid to say to Virginians that he raised taxes."
----

But Kilgore faltered under a series of questions by moderator Tim Russert, host of NBC's Meet the Press. Asked by Russert whether he would sign a bill to outlaw abortion if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade , Kilgore refused to answer, calling the question hypothetical.

Russert, who thrills in catching national politicians in contradictions on his Sunday morning show, followed up quickly by asking whether Kilgore would veto a tax increase. Kilgore fell for the trick question, saying he would.

"That's a hypothetical question!" Russert said, prompting laughter from the luncheon crowd of more than 500 Northern Virginia business executives in the ballroom of the Hilton McLean Tysons Corner.

"Kilgore was nervous and tense. He sounded bad. He argued badly," said University of Virginia politics professor Larry Sabato, who is scheduled to moderate a debate Oct. 9. "This was Kaine's best performance ever."

Got an email about this a little while ago from a friend.#

Its encouraging, but I forget are there to be any televised debates?

As I’ve said early in this thread neither are very good candidates, but Kaine is far and away better than Kilgore, Kaine might not be Mr Gravitas but Kilgore is a complete lightweight who’ll do zero for the state and could wind up doing plenty of harm.     

[Ben.]

Its encouraging, but I forget are there to be any televised debates?

I think this was the first televised debate.

Good as last I'd heard the Kilgore camp had been dragging their feet.

Saw a clip on the WP site, Kaine is a far far better stump speaker than Kilgore, far more at ease far more fluid in his delivery, Kilgore was very weak in comparison.

[Ben.]

The real Jerry Kilgore. - Anti-Kilgore site I just stumbled upon.

Click 'Play Week 1:  Jail Break'

My only question is... Where the hell is Kaine camp?  They should be on this like flys on sh**t.

I think the site could be linked to the Kaine campaign, but your right some of this stuff is pretty hard for Kilgore to respond to... Kaine also seems to have made one or two pretty effective attacks on Kilgore of late, this race really could still go either way, neither candidate is pulling ahead... and while i'm tempted to say Kaine has the momentum I really wouldn't want to call it either way...

[Ben.]

Uh, as I predicted, the illegal immigration issue is really bubbling in Virginia.

Liberals, like Kaine, want to reward illegal immigrants, whereas most Virginians want them deported.

Another article on the matter:

http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20051007-111712-1681r.htm

I've got to say that while imigration is a growing issue nationwide these days, it really is not that important an issue in the VA race right now, sure its a factor but not nearly as big of a factor as you seem to think Carl...

Whats more i think its tough to call Kaine a liberal, sure he's anti-gun and anti-death penalty at the same time he's pro-life and a fiscal hawk those are not the tradtional hallmarks of a liberal democrat.

[Ben.]

He is pretending is is antiabortion (ROTFLMAO).

He is, and on the tax piont it was Warner who introduced a much needed tax rise which has really helped the state's education system... Kaine isn't a Liberal, he isn't as consistantly moderate as Warner but he stands solidly to the right of mainstream liberal democrats (Kerry, Biden, Dodd etc...).

[Ben.]

Kaine--48%
Kilgore--48%
Potts--4%

I let you figure this out

Who did the poll?

I doubt very much anyone is "pulling the plug" I doubt the GOP is "pulling the plug" in NJ and i very very much doubt the Democrats and Warner would "pull the plug" in VA... stikes me as wishful thinking by some.

[Ben.]

News Flash:

The Richmond Times-Dispatch is reporting that a new Mason-Dixon poll will be out tomorrow in the Virginia governor’s race.

Any word on the content?

[Ben.]

Found it!

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