Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I guess I'll have to start pulling for Sinn Fein to be effective while in opposition, gross.

[ObserverIE]

Mmm...
yeah didn't see Conlon getting that level of traction at all. A new face, based fairly close to Humphries - who seemed a much stronger candidate. Plus I figured the Monagahan and Cavan split in the FG vote would be roughly equal. It seems not. FG's vote management was much better than I had expected (as it was in many other parts).

Otherwise ok-ish. SF worse than I thought, FF better. Labour much better (but still a mediocre result in national context).

I think the Celt poll referred to a few pages back did show Conl[o/a]n as the 2nd FG candidate. In "another place", there was a reference to Conlon appealing to the "Hibernian" vote in Monaghan, which wouldn't be as, how shall we put it, enthusiastic about someone called Heather Humphreys. (FG in Cavan, led by Joe O'Reilly, seemed to be putting in a bit of an effort into reviving the AOH there as well, but it doesn't seem to have gone very far.)

Forde was obviously seen as being the company candidate. She did still outpoll McGuirk, but to be honest, I was expecting McGuirk to be battling it out with the Green at the bottom of the list.

[tpfkaw]

The GOP never dropped to anywhere near 17% of the vote. Never say never I suppose, but it looks to me like the party's over. FF's chances of returning to major party status are probably a  worse than SF's chances of taking their place.

They did drop to 23.17% of the vote...

(Worst result for the GOP in a two-candidate election was 36.54% in 1936, worst result for the Dems was 28.82% in 1924, worst result for the Dems in a two-candidate election was 34.15% in 1920).

[minionofmidas]

The GOP never dropped to anywhere near 17% of the vote. Never say never I suppose, but it looks to me like the party's over. FF's chances of returning to major party status are probably a  worse than SF's chances of taking their place.

They did drop to 23.17% of the vote...

(Worst result for the GOP in a two-candidate election was 36.54% in 1936, worst result for the Dems was 28.82% in 1924, worst result for the Dems in a two-candidate election was 34.15% in 1920).

Meh, "never" was not meant literally.

Besides the obvious issues, of course - a presidential election result is much more elastic, a rout much less meaningful, than a parliamentary result. The Republicans were still one of only two major parties in Congress, state legislatures, etc in 1912.

[minionofmidas]

Cork E

2 FG, 1 Lab can, I should think, be taken as given. Sherlock (Lab) to probably top the poll, followed by Stanton (FG).

Yes

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No

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Yes it was, yes Labour came close, yes anti-FF transfering was fundamental to SF's gain.

Shame about getting the order of FG wrong. Otherwise this was as perfect as could possibly be.

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The other was never eliminated... they battled it out until the last count. I notice you chickened out of picking one of them to win.

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Yes and yes.

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And so he did.

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Absolutely preposterous. Barry polled 9% but never looked close to a seat. If his voters had liked the second Labour candidate better, we might still have seen a second left gain, but as it stood the battle was between Kelleher and the two FG candidates for two seats, and Kelleher stayed on top of that.
WP polled 1.3%.

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Yes, and yes they could chase - FG as well as FF. Very good.

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Wrong FG loser, otherwise perfect. And you did mention he was in with a chance.

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Yeah, another one with one safe FG seat and the other two seats between FG, FF, and Labour. But Labour won it, FF lost out.

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29.1% 2007, 29.2% 2011. And since you actually said "vote" and turnout was also higher... up by 1200.

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The rest of this is of course entirely correct.

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43% Mattie, 22% FG, 35% exhausted, so yeah, not that freely but it was enough.

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Prendergast turned out a very weak candidate, which means she gets a reward in the form of an European Parliament seat. FG were much closer to a second than Labour were to a first, but of course McGrath held on. I could have told you that.

[minionofmidas]

Final Munster constituency...

Waterford

FG should take 2 and Labour 1 with relative ease.

Right.

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Not enough of their transfers made it to SF to overtake the strongest of the small leftist candidates. And enough SF transfers made it to Halligan to overtake Kenneally.

[minionofmidas]

Carlow-Kilkenny
Terrible vote management cost FG a second seat last time – it should be an easy pick-up now.
FF had 3, but will likely come out with just 1 – McGuinness probably.

Labour should easily take 1 (probably Phelan)

Yes!

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Yeah, no. Deering was the 3rd placed FG candidate, but Labour were not his competitors. That was FF.

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All very accurate.

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Yes.

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No.
Who is Áine Kerr? You mean Áine Brady? FG took it. (Labour's second candidate was reasonably strong too, so that was quite right.)

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Martin Heydon crushed the field and raises questions why a second FG candidate wasn't on the ticket. Wall too was elected on the first count.

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Independent Paddy Kennedy was in with a chance as well, thanks to excellent transfers, but O'Fergal overtook him again after Power was eliminated, and then compared himself to "the last of the Mohicans". Memorable quote, that.

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Unfortunately.

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Yes and yes.

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Perfect! Labour were in there with a shot.

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Sexton failed hard. Transfers proved decisive, both in putting McFadden well ahead of running mate Peter Burke who did better on first pref.s, and in randomly allocating the fourth seat... to FF's "off the wall" third candidate.
Which means the prediction is actually correct except for the identity of the FF winner. O'Rourke was eliminated on the second count.

[Nichlemn]

Couldn't FG try for a minority government in which Labour or FF could support legislation on a case-by-case basis?

[Хahar 🤔]

Couldn't FG try for a minority government in which Labour or FF could support legislation on a case-by-case basis?

It's not in the best interests of FG, though. The FG-Lab government will have an enormous majority (and Labour will be relatively pliant given how much larger FG is), whereas a minority government would be very unstable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

(and Labour will be relatively pliant given how much larger FG is)

This is what I don't get. When a smaller party enters in a coalition, it generally has the possibility to influentiate the coalition's work a lot, even when it's very small, because it can always go out and make the government fall.

[Iannis]

Couldn't FG try for a minority government in which Labour or FF could support legislation on a case-by-case basis?

It's not in the best interests of FG, though. The FG-Lab government will have an enormous majority (and Labour will be relatively pliant given how much larger FG is), whereas a minority government would be very unstable.

FG could also form a majority with indipendents. Indeed, who are these indipendents?

[Associate Justice PiT]

Couldn't FG try for a minority government in which Labour or FF could support legislation on a case-by-case basis?

It's not in the best interests of FG, though. The FG-Lab government will have an enormous majority (and Labour will be relatively pliant given how much larger FG is), whereas a minority government would be very unstable.

FG could also form a majority with indipendents. Indeed, who are these indipendents?

     As someone stated earlier, there's not enough FG-friendly independents to make the prospect any more appealing than a minority government.

     Given how obvious it is that FF's days as Ireland's biggest party are over, I'm slightly amused that they still don't want to form a government with FG. With that said, delusion on the part of politicians is nothing new, of course.

[ObserverIE]

Longford-Westmeath

Labour and FG’s existing seats can be taken as given. FF running 3 candidates is off the wall and I think puts both their seats in danger.

McFadden should pick up FG’s second without too much difficulty, leaving FF against ex-PD, now Labour, Mae Sexton for the last. Again a week ago, my answer here might have been different, but I’ll now take FF to just hold out (O’Rourke?).

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF (FG GAIN from FF)

Sexton failed hard. Transfers proved decisive, both in putting McFadden well ahead of running mate Peter Burke who did better on first pref.s, and in randomly allocating the fourth seat... to FF's "off the wall" third candidate.
Which means the prediction is actually correct except for the identity of the FF winner. O'Rourke was eliminated on the second count.

As someone who actually lives and votes in this constituency, I'll put in my pennyworth:

The Labour strategy from what I could see in terms of posters and literature was that Westmeath (2/3rds of the vote and almost all of the previous Labour vote and organisation) was exclusively for Penrose and Sexton got Longford (1/3rd of the vote but only her personality to win votes). Penrose would comfortably exceed the quota, his transfers would push Sexton well clear of Kelly (the outgoing Longford FF TD), and then transfers from Kelly and from the SF candidate would put her in the running.

Sexton actually did OK in Longford, not as well as she did in 2002 but still a solid performance; she was 131 votes behind Kelly within the county and votes from outside actually put her ahead of him on the first count. What did for her was that there was no Penrose surplus; while he gained ground in the Athlone end of Westmeath, in his Mullingar base the local FG candidate, Burke, did much better than expected. So when the 3rd FF candidate, Mary O'Rourke, was eliminated, Kelly was able to overtake Sexton and the plan fell through.

The big surprise from outside was the collapse of "Mammy" O'Rourke and the unheralded victory of the supposed sweeper candidate Robert Troy; she seems to have done extremely badly in her base of Athlone town, losing votes to a dissident FFer (Moran) and the local FG and SF candidates, as well as Penrose. There were signs that she was in trouble midway through the campaign when she started erecting posters and billboards and carrying out canvassing in north Westmeath (Troy's area) but his relative resilience came as a surprise.

One other result with implications for the future was the performance of SF, who survived until the penultimate count and ended up with more than 6,000 votes. This was certainly their best performance since the hunger-strike election of 1981, and arguably since 1957. There is a strong possibility of a gain for them here next time.

[Oakvale]

Even if Labour does its job decently as a left-wing party, people will keep thinking their only choice is between FF on one side and a Labour/FG coalition on the other. There's no way Labour could emerge as a major party in this case.

It's worth noting that there's been some attempt to frame such a coalition as a "national government" (which, it consisting of the two largest parties, it sort of is) for extraordinary times, which is probably the best way of going about it.

There's a good post on this over at politicalreform.ie, by the way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If voters buy it, that's fine. But if the FG government fails at managing the economy, the voters won't apreciate it, "national government" or not.

I don't want to seem overly pessimistic (as my sig shows I've enjoyed this election), but I've the sad impression that this massive electoral realignment didn't alter partisan habits at all, and that worries me.

[rob in cal]

I like the fact that both parties seems to support going to a unicameral system and abolishing the Sennead.  As a passionate unicameralist, I love to see unnecessary second chambers going down all over the world.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I guess I'd support it too. BTW, how is the upper house elected in Ireland ?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah, I guess I'd support it too. BTW, how is the upper house elected in Ireland ?

Some members are elected by university graduates, others appointed by the Taoiseach, and the rest are elected through a ridiculous corporatist system.

[minionofmidas]

Louth

Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) Seamus Kirk (FF) is deemed automatically re-elected, so this is effectively a 4-seater (even though the recent constituency review bumped it up to 5 seats).

FG’s O’Dowd and SF leader Gerry Adams should both get in without too much trouble.

Understatement much?

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Labour had a fair few votes to spare (more than Fitzpatrick), but otherwise perfect.

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SF were far too far behind. FG though took it with no trouble - thanks in part to really, really excellent vote management. Their two candidates were basically tied and both ahead of FF (even combined) throughout the count.

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You guessed right. Labour edged FF for fourth place.

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Yes!
FG’s 2 are secure – they’ll be trying to bring in Senator Liam Twomey as their third.[/quote]Twomey ended up their top vote getter. FG votes ended up too well managed here as their three candidates were very close together... and competing for the last two seats. Which means D'Arcy is one of three FG TDs to be defeated for reelection.

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Yes.

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SF didn't get too far.
Of course, so far I've been ignoring the longhaired elephant without a tie in the room. Independent Mick Wallace comfortably topped the poll, was elected on the first count, and is not mentioned here anywhere. To quote RTÉ, "FG here can't believe Wallace got such a high vote and stopped them getting 3 seats".

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Yes. Labour's vote was barely up on 2007, and their transfers weren't great, so definitely a McManus effect there. FG got three, with very little trouble. Good vote management again.

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Donnelly won a seat, of course. SF did well but lost. Behan did okay, Kelly was a nonshow (0.7%).

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It might have been, if FF had had better candidates. Double error, though in a five-seater this time.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I guess I'd support it too. BTW, how is the upper house elected in Ireland ?

Some members are elected by university graduates, others appointed by the Taoiseach, and the rest are elected through a ridiculous corporatist system.

You make it sound as if university seats are not a ridiculous example of corporatism.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That looks hilariously archaic... even though that applies to most of Irish politics.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yeah, I guess I'd support it too. BTW, how is the upper house elected in Ireland ?

Some members are elected by university graduates, others appointed by the Taoiseach, and the rest are elected through a ridiculous corporatist system.

You make it sound as if university seats are not a ridiculous example of corporatism.

At least university seats have tradition on their side.

[minionofmidas]

Very busy with work and stuff for the next few days, so putting up this holding prediction for the remaining constituencies, in case I don't get time to flesh things out before 'tis too late:
Dublin C
Prediction: 1 Lab, 1 i [O’Sullivan], 1 FG, 1 SF
(FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Dublin MW
Prediction: 2 FG, 2 Lab
(FG, FG and Lab GAINS from FF, PD and Green)

Dublin N
Prediction: 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Soc, 1 FF
(Lab and Soc GAINS from FF and Green)

Dublin NC
Prediction:  1 FG,1 i (McGrath), 1 Lab
(Lab GAIN from FF)

Dublin NE
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 FG
(Lab GAIN from  FF)

Dublin NW
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 SF
 (Lab and SF GAINS from FF)

Dublin S
Prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab
(FG and Lab GAINS from FF and Green)

Dublin SC
Prediction:  2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 PBP
(Lab and PBP GAINS from FF)

Dublin SE
Prediction: 2 Lab, 2 FG
(Lab and FG GAINS from FF and Green)

Dublin SW
Prediction:  2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 SF
(Lab and SF GAINS from FF)

Dublin W
Predition: 2 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc
(LAB and Soc GAINS from FF and new seat created)

Dún Laoighaire
Prediction:  2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 PBP
(FG and PBP GAINS from FF and Green)

Got around to my slightly more detailed Dublin predictions (which include some changes on the quick list I threw up the other morning)...

Dublin C

Where will Bertie Ahern’s vote go?  Not sure myself.
The only safe seat here is Labour’s Joe Costello. The other 3 are very much up for grabs.

FG’s worst constituency last time out, the FG polling increase we’re seeing nationally should at least put Paschal Donohoe close enough to election to make it more than likely. Incumbent independent Maureen O’Sullivan has a strong team and should be in a reasonable position to retain that seat.

A simple look at the national polls and their local election performance would indicate that SF’s Mary Lou McDonald has to be at least competitive.

Quite right.

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His vote wasn't that high in the first place and got scattered totally. McDonald got the biggest bundle (by a small amount), but that's not saying much.

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Underestimating continued FF support. Spot on for the result, though.

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Perfect on the dynamics and the identity of the contenders, but Labour's  (and FG's!) second snuck ahead of SF on the FF transfers. You called it right in the holding prediction.

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Nowhere near.

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Spot on on Sargent and FF being competitive. Daly's stronger-than-expected vote came out of Labour's pocket, I suppose. The notion of a second FG seat here seems to have never entered your mind, though.

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Perfection.

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More perfection.

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Excellency in Perfection. Though it wasn't particularly close for that last seat.

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Jas' habit of underestimating independents in this election strikes again. At least you revised it to include the easy polltopper among the winners. At the expense of FG instead of of FF, alas - though Corrigan was indeed in with a fighting chance.

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Not quite. Though she was easily elected.

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More perfection. You're doing really well in Dublin.

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You missed the most successful of the independents, one Paul Sommerville, but perfect on the call. Labour's second struggled a bit, but took it.

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Maloney with ease, so correct as usual. O'Connor got beaten for fifth by FG's second candidate.

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This was a simple one: same as last time, except Joe Higgins regains his seat.
Nulty did attract a fair few transfers more than Lenihan, but the gap was far too wide to even think of bridging.

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Perfect. Hanafin was in with a shot against Boyd Barrett, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, forgot about your revisions.

And just want to make a handful of revisions to the earlier predictions:

Sligo-Leitrim N

FG should definitely be looking at two here and indeed I’d expect them to both top and come second in the poll.

FF defending 2, will be desperately seeking to hold 1 – but I imagine the wind’s against them. SF seem best placed to pick up here. Labour might have been, but the inclusion of former Labour member Declan Bree, should split that vote and give SF’s Colreavy a cushion.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 SF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Sligo-Leitrim N
Analysis unchanged, but looking at things again, I think the ground is just that bit too much for SF to make up.

Revised prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF
(FG GAIN from FF)

Tinkering was a mistake.

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Cork E

Taking another off SF. Very difficult – the last seat could go any which way between FG, Labour and FF. Can think of reasons against all. Anyway, my inclination is to think Michael Ahern (FF) might hold out.

Revised prediction: 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF
(FG GAIN from FF)

[/quote]As stated before, tinkering was a mistake.

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Cork SC

Taking a fresh view of it, I suspect holding the second FF seat would be a tall order. Putting it down as a FG gain now.

Revised prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab
(FG GAIN from FF)

[/quote]What did I just tell you!? TINKERING WAS A MISTAKE.

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Attaboy.

[Јas]

Tinkering was very definitely a mistake

Happy enough with the overall predicting this time though