Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

rte has an article up that turnout during the day (in Ireland as in Britain, the final hours of polling are busiest) appeared to be well up on 2007, fwiw.

[RodPresident]

If Kenny gets a minority government, after Labour opting for consolidating his second-party position, can we see some coherent FF's minds making something like Bakoyannis in Greece (support government in economics and be expelled from party)?

[The Mikado]

I wish you guys the best of luck with the election returns and with pulling your economy out of the ditch.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hey guys, How is emigrant or absentee voting handled? I can't find much information on it- are you allowed to vote at embassies etc.?

AFAIK expatriates aren't allowed to vote.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hey guys, How is emigrant or absentee voting handled? I can't find much information on it- are you allowed to vote at embassies etc.?

AFAIK expatriates aren't allowed to vote.

I´m not.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

So when will the counting begin and where can I find a good stream of election coverage?

[minionofmidas]

Counting will begin at 9am GMT. There's an exit poll coming out at 8am.

[redcommander]

Counting will begin at 9am GMT. There's an exit poll coming out at 8am.

That's interesting. Why is there several hours of a wait before counting begins? A lot of countries immediately start counting once polling stations close.

[minionofmidas]

Probably because polls close quite late at night and counting with STV can take a couple of days anyhow.
But why they don't release the exit poll on poll closing... I haven't the slightest clue.

[minionofmidas]

Exit poll


This time, the poll predicts that Fine Gael will get 36.1% - the party's best result since November 1982, but some way short of what it would need for an overall majority.

Labour is in second place on 20.5%, which would be its best ever share of the vote. The party is ahead of Fine Gael in Dublin.

Fianna Fáil support is put at just 15.1%, by far its worst ever General Election result, and signalling an electoral wipeout.

Sinn Féin support is put at 10.1%, again a record, while the Greens are on 2.7%, which could see the party save some seats.

Independents and Others get the support of 15.5% - a very high figure, though it may be spread quite thinly given the number of candidates, and where those votes transfer could be crucial to the final outcome.

[Harry Hayfield]

RTE Exit Poll (and my forecast allocations)
Fine Gael 36.1% (+8.8% on 2007) winning 69 quotas
Labour 20.5% (+10.4% on 2007) winning 40 quotas
Inds and Others 15.5% (+9.9% on 2007) winning 12 quotas
Fianna Fail 15.1% (-26.5% on 2007) winning 29 quotas
Sinn Fein 10.1% (+3.1% on 2007) winning 13 quotas
Greens 2.7% (-2.0% on 2007) winning 3 quotas
Fine Gael short of an overall majority by by 14 quotas
Swing: Fianna Fail to Fine Gael 17.7%, Fine Gael to Labour 0.8%

[Хahar 🤔]

Sinn Féin a bit higher and Fine Gael a bit lower would be nice, but given recent polling these results aren't bad.

My hope now is that Gilmore isn't stupid enough to take the Tánaiste's post. Unfortunately the results may force him to.

[minionofmidas]

Sinn Féin a bit higher and Fine Gael a bit lower would be nice, but given recent polling these results aren't bad.

My hope now is that Gilmore isn't stupid enough to take the Tánaiste's post. Unfortunately the results may force him to.

I'm all for an FG-FF coalition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour 16 points behind FG ? I know it was expected but that's still a pity.

[Silent Hunter]

Could we get a results thread set up, please, Al?

[minionofmidas]

from the RTE...

Breaking down the Millward Brown Lansdowne poll by region, Fine Gael polled strongest in Connacht/Ulster with 41% of first preference votes.

This was followed by Leinster (excluding Dublin) with 40%, it had 38% in Munster, and 27% in Leinster [sic, Dublin surely].

According to the exit poll, Labour received 31% of first preferences in Dublin, 20% in Munster, 19% in Leinster and 11% in Connacht/Ulster.

RTÉ's Exit Poll indicated Fianna Fáil polled as low as 8% in Dublin. They had 16% support in Munster, 17% in Leinster and 19% in Connacht/Ulster.

The poll indicated Independents and others had their strongest showing in Dublin, with 19%. In the rest of Leinster and Connacht/Ulster they were put at 12% and Munster 18%.

Sinn Féin support is put at 15% on Connacht/Ulster, 11% in Dublin, 10% in the rest of Leinster and 7% in Munster.

Finally, the Green Party is at 5% in Dublin, 3% in the rest of Leinster, 2% in Munster and only 1% in Connacht/Ulster.


Turnout may be up as much as ten points.

[minionofmidas]

RTE has lots of partial counts, early guesstimates, etc up right now. Jas may be delighted to hear they think Luke Flanagan will be the only non-FG TD from Roscommon.

[Јas]

I suppose technically FF have gotten off to an early lead. The outgoing Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) Seamus Kirk being automatically returned in Louth, so it's:

Fianna Fáil	1
Fine Gael	0
Labour	0
Sinn Féin	0
United Left	0
Greens	0
Ind/Other	0

[Јas]

Profile of prospective Taoiseach Enda Kenny in today's Irish Times

[Silent Hunter]

I don't know of any election count in this country that would go to a commercial break, even on ITV1.

(I'm watching the simulcast on BBC Parliament).

[DistingFlyer]

Seeing that exit (and I suppose as well the first count when it comes) reminds me of when the BBC figures in Britain came out in 1997. This wasn't just another opinion poll, and it really brought home the fact that the great dominant party of government was about to be well and truly screwed, perhaps for good. The Tories have recovered somewhat - I doubt if Fianna Fail will.

Fine Gael gets a lower share here than most polls had forecast, but then RTE's exit last time underestimated it a bit so maybe it's the case here too. I suspect it is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and unlock.

Of course we now know most of the results. So don't post anything directly to do with those here.

So why unlock this thread?

For post-election speculation, of course.

[minionofmidas]

And for an analysis of Jas' predictions! I'll get to that as soon as the remaining results are in (ie sometime next year.)

[Harry Hayfield]

I would like to ask member's opinion on this ballot paper from Wicklow constituency to tell me where the elector's marks should go?

[minionofmidas]

In the box to the right of the mugshots, obviously.

Apparently it was folded though, which ought to make it hell to count. And also increase the likelihood of spoiled votes.