Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[ObserverIE]

Cavan-Monaghan

Given that this is my native constituency, I’ll go that bit further here in my prediction than elsewhere, and make what will no doubt be a ridiculous complete first preference guestimation…

%   
21 Ó Caoláin   
15 Humphries   
13 O’Reilly      
11 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  7 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  6 Conlon, S   
  4 McGuirk
  3 Hogan   
  2 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  1 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

We can go back and lol at that on Saturday.

So by this I’d say Ó Caoláin, Humphries, O’Reilly and Smith to get elected – with Reilly against McVittie for the last seat. I imagine SF will suffer much less transfer leakage than FG, so I’ll plump for Reilly.

Prediction: 2 FG, 2 SF, 1 FF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Forde (caroline-forde.com) is a Quinn Insurance employee who's running on a pro-Quinn (independent.ie/national-news/elections/quinn-not-bankrolling-poll-fight-2547362.html) platform. This is quite a big issue around Cavan town and county generally (a large employer in an area that doesn't have much other employment and where there are fears that a new purchaser will dispose of the local operations). I suspect she'll do a good deal better than 1%; I'd certainly expect her to do better than McGuirk.

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RTÉ's political correspondent tipped this as a potential shock last night, with Pringle edging out Coughlan.

[Oakvale]

http://www.finegael2011.com/game/


Jesus Christ.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

[Хahar 🤔]

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

Sinn Féin is not the IRA. Certainly this new modern Sinn Féin is not. More importantly, it does not want to be the IRA.

[Јas]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

I understand the Government is about to declare a week of national mourning and that Gadafi has been offered asylum.
 

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

Several. As of course has everyone else.

Oh no wait... I'm not actually living in BRTD-bizarro world.


Not that anyone will be shedding tears about him, but ironically, as noted by journalist Eamon Mallie, it is unionists in the North who might be more concerned about Gadaffi falling - it scuppers their hopes to get him to agree to a compensation deal for IRA victims.


As it happens one of the independents running in South Dublin is of Libyan origin (he got asylum in Ireland in the 90s), tragically, it seems his brother was shot and killed in Benghazi a few days ago.


Short piece in The Irish Times on Irish-Libyan relations; also a brief colour piece on Islam in Ireland from the weekend.

[Јas]

http://www.finegael2011.com/game/


Jesus Christ.

I can only recommend that you be infracted severely for inflicting that on the forum

[ObserverIE]

Limerick City

Home of Willie O’Dea, one presumes FF’s safest seat in the country. He won’t bring in running-mate Peter Power, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out there was the votes to do so.

FG should hold their 2 without too much difficulty. Similarly Labour’s Jan O’Sullivan should also hold.
The last seat should be between the 2nd Labour candidate, Cllr Joe Leddin; independent (ex-FG) Cllr Kevin Kiely; and SF Cllr Maurice Quinlivan – who I think will get the strongest first preference vote of the group and probably won’t get caught. FF transfers might decide this one.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF (SF GAIN from FF)

Limerick City is now only a four-seater.

[Јas]

Limerick City is now only a four-seater.

Oops... will correct
Thanks

[patrick1]

Thanks for the analysis, fellas. I disagree with Oakvale and think Mary Lou will pull it out. I was thinking about doing my predictions but don't want to embarrass myself.  Really have no clue how independents will swing individual races or how transfers are going to break.

[Oakvale]

I've been playing that Super Enda game. It was going pretty well, but Joan Burton killed me after I'd collected a bunch of votes.

[minionofmidas]

I can only pray that we’ve seen the end of the Healy-Raes.

Say it ain't so, James.

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Traditional provincial rivalries?

[Oakvale]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

A representation of this post.

[patrick1]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

A representation of this post.

When it comes to these matters BRTD is either dumb, a troll or a dumb troll. Not sure what South Boston has to do with anything,  by product of too many movies I presume.

LOL@Healy- Rae.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPISMWa0SMU

[Oakvale]

On the off chance anyone wants to take a look at tonight's final debate...

EDIT: To summarise -

Kenny being pretty average, but not making any major gaffes so he's doing just fine. Gilmore's best performance yet, but it's probably too late to matter.

Martin is being smarmy, cheap and unlikeable, but I've thought that about his performance in every debate so far and the public hasn't agreed with me, so....

[minionofmidas]

I can only pray that we’ve seen the end of the Healy-Raes.

Say it ain't so, James.

Oh. Good. God.

Not quite as cute as his dad, but endorsed!

[Јas]

The final election campaign polls were published this morning.
Per below with the weekend polls.

	23 Feb	23 Feb	21 Feb	20 Feb	20 Feb	2007
	RedC	MBL	I-MRBI	MBL	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	40	38	37	37	39	27
Labour	18	20	19	20	17	10
Fianna Fáil	15	14	16	16	16	42
Sinn Féin	10	11	12	12	12	7
Green	3	1	2	1	2	5
Ind/Other	14	16	18	19	14	9

One can draw one's own conclusions.

[ObserverIE]

A poll from Cavan-Monaghan, FWIW, in today's Anglo-Celt (local newspaper in Cavan, carried out last Friday by Cavan Institute students, sample 525, weightings applied for electoral area, social background, gender and age grouping):

Ó Caoláin (SF) 17.6%
O'Reilly (FG) 13.8%
Reilly (SF) 11.4%
Conlon (FG) 11.2%
Smith (FF) 10.9%
Humphreys (FG) 8.9%
Conlon (FF) 5.3%
Forde (Ind) 5.1%
Hogan (Lab) 4.2%
McVitty (FG) 4.2%
Treanor (Ind) 2.7%
Lonergan (GP) 2.3%
McGuirk (Ind) 1.4%
Duffy (Ind) 1.0%

[Silent Hunter]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

[Verily]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

[Insula Dei]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

[patrick1]

A poll from Cavan-Monaghan, FWIW, in today's Anglo-Celt (local newspaper in Cavan, carried out last Friday by Cavan Institute students, sample 525, weightings applied for electoral area, social background, gender and age grouping):

Ó Caoláin (SF) 17.6%
O'Reilly (FG) 13.8%
Reilly (SF) 11.4%
Conlon (FG) 11.2%
Smith (FF) 10.9%
Humphreys (FG) 8.9%
Conlon (FF) 5.3%
Forde (Ind) 5.1%
Hogan (Lab) 4.2%
McVitty (FG) 4.2%
Treanor (Ind) 2.7%
Lonergan (GP) 2.3%
McGuirk (Ind) 1.4%
Duffy (Ind) 1.0%

Thanks for posting, Observer. Do you post on politics.ie as well? Welcome to the forum. 
That spread would suggest some good vote management for SF, no? I wonder how toxic FF will be with transfers. Could see 3 FG and 2 SF.

[minionofmidas]

Possible. 2-2-1 seems more likely though.

[Silent Hunter]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

There is; it's just election results day instead; you can stay in on Saturday and watch the Irish election results.

[Verily]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

I think last time they announced the first count and then went to bed (might be remembering that wrong), but I think all counting is happening the next morning this time.

[ObserverIE]

Thanks for posting, Observer. Do you post on politics.ie as well? Welcome to the forum. 

Thanks. I might well post on p.ie...

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I think it depends on the transfers of Forde and Hogan, who are both based in and around Cavan town and whose votes will skew in general towards County Cavan (55% or so of the electorate). Smith is from Cavan, but an anti-government vote will favour Humphreys. I suspect a good many of Margaret Conlon's transfers will go to her neighbour and cousin, Seán Conlon, making it easier for him to get elected earlier.