I've read 15 books about the 2020 election...Ask me anything!

[Pres Mike]

At first I thought, no way you've read that many.  But then I read your list and realized I've read the vast majority of those as well.

Yeah. I wasn't trying to read all of them. I just love political books. Whenever I see a new one on Amazon, I buy it.

Was Minnesota won by a bigger margin than expected?  How did the Biden and Trump campaigns feel about Minnesota?

Trump hoped to win Minnesota in the 2017-2019 period, since it was so close in 2020. Same with New Hampshire. But after Biden won the nomination, it was considered out of reach. I think the margin of victory was fairly close to expected. Perhaps slightly more. Neither campaign thought MN was a close state. The Biden campaign did spend money to be safe. Trump never bothered, even pulled out of Michigan.

Not entirely true.  One of the books, can't remember which one, indicated that Trump's campaign thought they could win Minnesota.

Pre-COVID, Trump himself thought he would win his 2016 map plus NV, NH and MN. Maybe even VA. By Summer and George Floyde, they wrote MN off completely

How did Trump feel about Virginia?

Was never seriously contested. At the end, the Trump campaign plan was to aggressively fight for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They expected to win Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. They wrote off Michigan and Arizona. Nevada was a toss up.

They did not write off Arizona.

They pulled funding in the Summer and early Fall. Same with Michigan. They did campaign and invest in the late Fall. But the Trump campaign saw its easiest path to victory by winning FL, WI and PA. They moved funds towards the latter two.

[Pres Mike]

Was any big name Democrat worried that the "shut up man" incident might hurt Biden or were they pleased with his debate performance?

Quite pleased with Biden's performance, althought they viewed Trump's disastrous performance as having a bigger impact.

The consensus for the second debate was Trump did much better, a draw. But almost every voter had decided

[Pres Mike]

Was the election stolen like 1876, 1960, and 2000 were?

No. The 2020 election was the best run and most efficient election in our nation's history. Results were counted and reported very accurately. Its a shame Trump promoted the big lie. Otherwise, Americans should be proud how well their state officials ran elections in all 50 states, during a pandemic.

[Pres Mike]

Please not derail this thread

[Pres Mike]

Was there any particular reason why Biden flopped so hard in Iowa and New Hampshire?

Besides Trump's occasional taunts was there any organized effort by Republicans to ratf**k the Democratic primaries?

1. These states favor novelty candidates. They also favor those who campaign extensively with  the public in diners and cafes. And they favor those with strong activist support. Activists tend to support the new shiny candidates.

Biden was a poor fit for IA and NH. He didn't have an activist base and has been in politics for decades. Not to go off topic, but Biden was the most electable general election candidate and did poorly in the first two states. Which means they shouldn't go first.

2. Not to my knowledge. Considering the media attention and record turnout, it wouldn't have worked. Trump feared Biden the most. I read conflicting reports about Bernie. Some say Trump wanted to run against Bernie, thinking it was easy to paint him as a socialist. Other say he thought Bernie could steal the populist manta.  Trump did think he would easily win against Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

[Pres Mike]

Why did Trump support increase 10 points in 2020 vis a vis 2016 in Hispanic urban core areas of NE NJ and upper Manhattan and the Bronx of NYC

Turnout went from 55% to 67% nationally. Most of Trump's gains with Hispanics were with conservative leaning Hispanics who never voted before. Many of whom work with fossil fuels. Another big factor were Cubans and Venezuelans moving towards the GOP.

The number of Hispanics who voted for Hillary in 2016 than Trump in 2020 is almost entirely in Miami and RGV.

[Pres Mike]

1. When the results did not look good on election night, was there a time ween Biden did not feel confident/expected to lose? Or did he always know he would win by the margin he did?

2. What was Warren’s rationale for staying in all throughout February

3. What candidate did trump most fear?

1. The Biden campaign internal numbers looked good. At no point did they expect to lose. Throughout October they knew the election was closer than public polls. The Trump campaign also knew this.

2. Nothing official, but the Bernie campaign suspected Warren was hoping to sabotage Bernie and become Biden’s VP.

3. Trump feared Biden the most, and hoped to go against Bernie or Bloomberg. Hence the 2019 Ukraine scandal.

[Pres Mike]

Why did Trump support increase 10 points in 2020 vis a vis 2016 in Hispanic urban core areas of NE NJ and upper Manhattan and the Bronx of NYC

Turnout went from 55% to 67% nationally. Most of Trump's gains with Hispanics were with conservative leaning Hispanics who never voted before. Many of whom work with fossil fuels. Another big factor were Cubans and Venezuelans moving towards the GOP.

The number of Hispanics who voted for Hillary in 2016 than Trump in 2020 is almost entirely in Miami and RGV.

Any overlap with the Hispanics that Bernie took in the primaries?

No, the Hispanic vote for Bernie was overwhelming young and progressive

[Pres Mike]

1. Did any Democratic Senator or Governor (former or at the time incumbent) sit the race out for Biden, like so many sat the race out for Hillary Clinton in 2016?

2. Did any high ranking cabinet official (up to and including Pence) privately, meaningfully, try to get Trump to acknowledge the reality that he lost and to concede or did they, as I suspect they did (with the exception of Barr who resigned/was asked to resign after his investigation proved their was no fraud), sit on their hands in the name of staying on his good side?

1. Both Andrew Cuomo and Sherrod Brown strongly considered it but decided Biden was unbeatable. Brown was also concerned about Ohio’s republican Governor picking his replacement in the senate.

2. No cabinet official attempted to get Trump to concede. Only members of his family spoke to him of the possibility

[Pres Mike]

1. Did Biden consider dropping out after Iowa or New Hampshire?

2. Who did Obama secretly support? What where his true thoughts on Biden running?

3. This may have been asked before but did Trump genuinely believe there was fraud? Or was this a shtick to get attention?

1. No, Biden himself was adamant that he stay until SC. This was shared with his wife and sister. Some lower campaign officials did start looking for new jobs.

2. Obama didn't support anyone. He did have a soft spot for Cory Booker and hoped he'd win. Back when Biden was considering running in 2016, Obama made it clear that Booker needed to be VP. Obama did not want Biden to run in 2020, fearing he would lose and tarnish his repuation.

3. Unknown. Most likely knew their was no fraud. Most likely knew he was not going to stay in office but wanted to lay the groundwork for 2024.

[Pres Mike]

Did Trump expect Biden to win the primaries?

Yes and he feared Biden winning the primaries. Hence the 2019 Ukraine scandle

[Pres Mike]

2. Obama didn't support anyone. He did have a soft spot for Cory Booker and hoped he'd win.

That's strange considering what Booker did in 2012.

What did Booker do?

[Pres Mike]

2. Obama didn't support anyone. He did have a soft spot for Cory Booker and hoped he'd win.

That's strange considering what Booker did in 2012.

What did Booker do?

Must not have bothered Obama

In 2016, the Hillary campaign was getting worried about Bernie. They asked Obama to endorse Hillary early. Obama was hesitiant to do so. One condition was Hillary naming Booker VP. Obama saw a lot of himself in Booker.
Stanned for Bain Capital, aka Mitt Romney's venture-capitalist company.

[Pres Mike]

(Sorry for all the questions)

1. Was Obama Ok with Biden mentioning him in his campaign or ads?

2. Did Hillary at any point consider running?

3. Did Beto really want to be president? Or did he just run because a lot of people wanted him to?

4. Did anybody close to Biden believe he was declining cognitively? What where there thoughts on the attacks?

5. Stupid question but Was Biden bothered that his videos on YouTube generally got more dislikes than likes?

1. I don't think Obama cared. He did think he needed respect and would not tolerate criticism. Obama invited every candidate to his house for advice. When he spoke to Warren, he made it clear he would not tolerate criticism of his administration. Warren never again criticized Obama on the campaign trail. That said, when Warren was briefly the front runner Obama told donors he could get behind her as nominee. He thought Buttigieg was too short and gay.

2. Yes, one of the books mention Hillary thinking about it. But it never left the "why not" stage.

3. Yes, very much so.

4. No, at no point did anyone in his campaign think this.

5. Didn't read anything about youtube likes. I do not social media like twitter and youtube was handled by younger staffers.

[Pres Mike]

Hillary cancelled her fireworks the day before the election. What where some subtle signs like that from the Biden and trump campaigns in the month leading up to the election that they knew what was coming?

None that I know of. Internal polling for both campaign were pretty accurate. The day before election, the Biden campaign expected to win Georgia but not Florida. They had it down to the street level.

[Pres Mike]

Hillary cancelled her fireworks the day before the election. What where some subtle signs like that from the Biden and trump campaigns in the month leading up to the election that they knew what was coming?

None that I know of. Internal polling for both campaign were pretty accurate. The day before election, the Biden campaign expected to win Georgia but not Florida. They had it down to the street level.

You've said it before that Biden expected to lose Florida. If so then why did they spend an obscene amount of money there (by they I don't mean only Biden's campaign but also DNC and Bloomberg's PAC).

Biden himself didn’t think he would win Florida when he won the nomination and wanted to abandon the state.

But pressure from the DNC and the DCCC made his campaign spend money there. They had more than enough. Plus polls in the summer showed him in the lead. But by late October it looked like Trump was going to win