I've read 15 books about the 2020 election...Ask me anything!
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  I've read 15 books about the 2020 election...Ask me anything!
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Author Topic: I've read 15 books about the 2020 election...Ask me anything!  (Read 10086 times)
Pres Mike
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« on: February 01, 2023, 10:29:30 AM »

Here they are....

Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency
Jonathan Allen

Battle for the Soul: Inside the Democrats' Campaigns to Defeat Trump
Edward-Isaac Dovere

Peril
Bob Woodward

Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost
Michael C. Bender

Joe Biden : the life, the run, and what matters now
Evan Osnos

Growing Up Biden: A Memoir
Valerie Biden Owens

A Return to Normalcy?: The 2020 Election that (Almost) Broke America
Larry Sabato

Landslide
Michael Wolff

Betrayal : the final act of the Trump show
Jonathan Karl

Divided We Stand
Andrew Busch and John Pitney

I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year
Carol Leonning and Philip Rucker

This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future
Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns

The Fighting Soul: On the Road with Bernie Sanders
Ari-Rabin-Havt

The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama
Gabriel Debenedetti

The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden's White House
Chris Whipple
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strangeland
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2023, 12:59:28 PM »

1) Why did Bernie Sanders do worse in 2020 than in 2016, despite having four years to prepare, near-universal name recognition, and being viewed very positively by Democratic primary voters?
2) What was Kamala Harris's plan after her "that little girl was me" confrontation with Biden in that debate, if any? The attacks on Biden on busing never made much sense, because at some point she would have had to argue that busing was good and should be brought back, which is a position that maybe 10% of the population holds, and the policy was never very popular even in the Black community.
3) Why did polls show a bigger lead for Biden than the final results? The polling miss was even bigger than in 2016, they just got the winner right. By contrast, the polls in 2018 were much closer to the mark (though still of in a few key races), and 2022 had an error in the other direction
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2023, 04:07:57 PM »

1) Why did Bernie Sanders do worse in 2020 than in 2016, despite having four years to prepare, near-universal name recognition, and being viewed very positively by Democratic primary voters?
2) What was Kamala Harris's plan after her "that little girl was me" confrontation with Biden in that debate, if any? The attacks on Biden on busing never made much sense, because at some point she would have had to argue that busing was good and should be brought back, which is a position that maybe 10% of the population holds, and the policy was never very popular even in the Black community.
3) Why did polls show a bigger lead for Biden than the final results? The polling miss was even bigger than in 2016, they just got the winner right. By contrast, the polls in 2018 were much closer to the mark (though still of in a few key races), and 2022 had an error in the other direction

1. Bernie Sander's campaign expected to lose some support from 2016 to 2020. Some support would be lost to Warren, a fellow progressive. But not a lot because Sanders mostly competed with Biden for voters. Both Biden and Sanders were "beer" while Warren was "wine". They also expected to lose some votes to Biden because of name recongition and some to youth support to "flavor of the month" candidiates. They also acknowledged that Sanders in 2016 had some support because some Democrats just wanted a male or protested Hillary. Some of Bernie's 2016 support just wanted Biden and Bernie was a place holder.

Sanders campaign knew the only way to win was by winning a pluratiy and than a contested convention.

2. Kamala's plan from the start was to be VP. If she became the nominee the better. The "that little girl was me" actually took her campaign by surpise, they weren't expected such a reaction. Thus could not build from that. The Harris campaign was a s*** show behind the scenes and was never going to become a successful operation. So basically no plan.

3. Both the Biden and Trump campaigns knew the polls over performed for Biden. The Biden campaign knew they weren't going to win Florida from internal polls. The Biden campaign final predictions were pretty close, they were only wrong about North Carolina.

Why were the polls wrong again? I don't think any of the books go into great detail. Some things about Trump voters not picking up the phone to Democrats being more likely to stay home.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2023, 09:49:09 AM »

Why do you think Biden was unable to carry NC? What lessons need to be learned for Dems to finally win the state in 2024?
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VirginiaAaron
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2023, 01:58:55 PM »

I've read that some people around Trump knew it would be an uphill battle for them, is that true and was Trump being told that or was he just completely left out of the dark?
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2023, 04:49:04 PM »

Why do you think Biden was unable to carry NC? What lessons need to be learned for Dems to finally win the state in 2024?
Mostly Cal Cunningham for reasons....

Another factor was the slight movment of African American, Hispanic and Native American men towards Trump.

Considering how close it was, any combination of the above reasons might have lost NC for Democrats
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2023, 04:52:49 PM »

I've read that some people around Trump knew it would be an uphill battle for them, is that true and was Trump being told that or was he just completely left out of the dark?
At no point was Trump told he was winning the election. Several people around him desperatly tried to get him to change course. At one point, Trump legit thought there was no point in changing course, because Democrats were planning to replace Biden with Andrew Cuomo or Michelle Obama.

Trump was told throughout the campaign by several people that polls would underestimate him again. And that he didn't need to be above water in polls to win.

In the final week, internal polls showed real movement for Trump. The Biden internal polls showed the same thing.

The last 24 hours of the campaign, the internal polls showed Trump close enough. Not winning, but a 2016 poll error coudl get him across the finish line. When the Florida results were reported, the Trump campaign thought that what was exactly happening. Only until Arizona was called for Democrats that ruined everything.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2023, 05:48:00 PM »

Here they are....

Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency
Jonathan Allen

Battle for the Soul: Inside the Democrats' Campaigns to Defeat Trump
Edward-Isaac Dovere

Peril
Bob Woodward

Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost
Michael C. Bender

Joe Biden : the life, the run, and what matters now
Evan Osnos

Growing Up Biden: A Memoir
Valerie Biden Owens

A Return to Normalcy?: The 2020 Election that (Almost) Broke America
Larry Sabato

Landslide
Michael Wolff

Betrayal : the final act of the Trump show
Jonathan Karl

Divided We Stand
Andrew Busch and John Pitney

I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year
Carol Leonning and Philip Rucker

This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future
Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns

The Fighting Soul: On the Road with Bernie Sanders
Ari-Rabin-Havt

The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama
Gabriel Debenedetti

The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden's White House
Chris Whipple


2 Questions.

1.) I'm currently leading- Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost and I LOVE it. Bender does a great job being neutral and I love timeline books. What would you recommended me to read after? I want another timeline book that goes through a lot of the backroom decisions, inside scoops kinda. Preferably as least bias as possible.

2.) Who were the demographics that Trump lost the most support from in May/June of 2020? It appears that is when he fell apart and could never recover.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2023, 07:41:31 PM »

Who were the 8 million voters Trump gained?
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2023, 08:29:18 PM »

Who were the 8 million voters Trump gained?
The vast vast majority of the 8 million votes Trump gained were already Trump supporters, just people who never voted before. The voter turnout in 2016 was 55%, similar to past elections in the 21st century. It rose to 66% in 2020.

There was some movment with black and hispanic men towards Trump. Men who voted for Obama, stayed home in 2016, than voted for Trump. It wasn't a huge number though. These voters like incumbents and canididates that project strength. For hispanics, especially Texas, it was in support of natural gas and oil.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2023, 08:33:17 PM »

Here they are....

Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won the Presidency
Jonathan Allen

Battle for the Soul: Inside the Democrats' Campaigns to Defeat Trump
Edward-Isaac Dovere

Peril
Bob Woodward

Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost
Michael C. Bender

Joe Biden : the life, the run, and what matters now
Evan Osnos

Growing Up Biden: A Memoir
Valerie Biden Owens

A Return to Normalcy?: The 2020 Election that (Almost) Broke America
Larry Sabato

Landslide
Michael Wolff

Betrayal : the final act of the Trump show
Jonathan Karl

Divided We Stand
Andrew Busch and John Pitney

I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year
Carol Leonning and Philip Rucker

This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future
Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns

The Fighting Soul: On the Road with Bernie Sanders
Ari-Rabin-Havt

The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama
Gabriel Debenedetti

The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden's White House
Chris Whipple


2 Questions.

1.) I'm currently leading- Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost and I LOVE it. Bender does a great job being neutral and I love timeline books. What would you recommended me to read after? I want another timeline book that goes through a lot of the backroom decisions, inside scoops kinda. Preferably as least bias as possible.

2.) Who were the demographics that Trump lost the most support from in May/June of 2020? It appears that is when he fell apart and could never recover.
1. Battle for the Soul: Inside the Democrats' Campaigns to Defeat Trump
Edward-Isaac Dovere
I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year
Carol Leonning and Philip Rucker
Peril by Bob Woodward

are the best ones on the list. Hope you enjoy!


2. Independents. There were polls December 2019-Febrarury 2020 that showed Trump even with independents. Covid and BLM made Trump rely solely on his base.
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2023, 11:50:26 PM »

Did the Biden or Trump campaign actually think Texas could flip blue?

Why did Biden target Iowa and Ohio when he didn't even need them?
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2023, 11:44:31 PM »

Did the Biden or Trump campaign actually think Texas could flip blue?

Why did Biden target Iowa and Ohio when he didn't even need them?
Neither Trump nor Biden expected Democrats to win Texas. Some Democrats wanted more investment in Texas because they thought a landslide was possible. The Biden campaign did spend some money. But they even thought Florida was a waste of time.

Same with Iowa and Ohio. The Biden campaign did not expect to win them but the national party wanted an investment. Especially with the Iowa senate race. Some polls had Greenfield elading Ernst
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2023, 02:37:54 PM »

Probably a dumb question, but why did Nevada take longer than other states to count the votes?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2023, 03:55:33 PM »

Was Minnesota won by a bigger margin than expected?  How did the Biden and Trump campaigns feel about Minnesota?
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EJ24
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« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2023, 06:40:36 PM »

Was anyone warning Trump about potentially losing Georgia? It seems his campaign treated it much the same as Hillary 2016 treated Wisconsin, whereas Biden was sending Harris and Obama down there during the final week.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2023, 11:02:57 PM »

Was anyone warning Trump about potentially losing Georgia? It seems his campaign treated it much the same as Hillary 2016 treated Wisconsin, whereas Biden was sending Harris and Obama down there during the final week.
Both campaigns internal polls showed Georgia within the margin of error. Trump assumed the polls were wrong and he would easily carry the state.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2023, 11:04:51 PM »

Was Minnesota won by a bigger margin than expected?  How did the Biden and Trump campaigns feel about Minnesota?
Trump hoped to win Minnesota in the 2017-2019 period, since it was so close in 2020. Same with New Hampshire. But after Biden won the nomination, it was considered out of reach. I think the margin of victory was fairly close to expected. Perhaps slightly more. Neither campaign thought MN was a close state. The Biden campaign did spend money to be safe. Trump never bothered, even pulled out of Michigan.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2023, 11:06:18 PM »

Probably a dumb question, but why did Nevada take longer than other states to count the votes?
Outside of Vegas and Reno, Nevada is entirely rural. Votes were handcounted by elderly volunteers. And no one expected the final election call to be Neavda so no one was prepared.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2023, 10:54:17 PM »

How did Trump feel about Virginia?
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2023, 02:31:32 PM »

Was never seriously contested. At the end, the Trump campaign plan was to aggressively fight for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They expected to win Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. They wrote off Michigan and Arizona. Nevada was a toss up.
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Snow Belt Republican
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« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2023, 09:20:55 AM »

Weirdest results for some slices of the population?

How much of the leftward swing seems to be simply anti-Trump?

Why does Arizona take so long to count votes?
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2023, 07:35:01 PM »

Weirdest results for some slices of the population?

How much of the leftward swing seems to be simply anti-Trump?

Why does Arizona take so long to count votes?
1. None of the books really get into electoral trivia. One mentioned Arkansas moving towards the right when the rest of the country moved left was unusual and probably ancestoral Clinton voters

2. Biden locked down the "stay home" voters from 2016. And ate most of the Liberterrean and Green Party support from 2016. Combined with 18-22 aging into the electorate, Biden's victory can be entirely drawn from anti-Trump voters who did not vote for Hillary in 2016. Almost no one "switched sides" or were a Trump-Biden voter. Biden's victory in Arizona came from demographics and people moving from California. Georgia came from Atlanta exploding in recent years and Stacy Abram's turnout machine.

Biden was able to get Romney voters that did not vote for eithe side in 2016.

So yes, anti-Trump

3. Thats just how Arizona is. A very large state with far flung rural counties and Native reservations. No one expected for Arizona to be the deciding state. 2018 senate race wasn't called for days
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2023, 04:50:07 PM »

Weirdest results for some slices of the population?

How much of the leftward swing seems to be simply anti-Trump?

Why does Arizona take so long to count votes?
1. None of the books really get into electoral trivia. One mentioned Arkansas moving towards the right when the rest of the country moved left was unusual and probably ancestoral Clinton voters

2. Biden locked down the "stay home" voters from 2016. And ate most of the Liberterrean and Green Party support from 2016. Combined with 18-22 aging into the electorate, Biden's victory can be entirely drawn from anti-Trump voters who did not vote for Hillary in 2016. Almost no one "switched sides" or were a Trump-Biden voter. Biden's victory in Arizona came from demographics and people moving from California. Georgia came from Atlanta exploding in recent years and Stacy Abram's turnout machine.

Biden was able to get Romney voters that did not vote for eithe side in 2016.

So yes, anti-Trump

3. Thats just how Arizona is. A very large state with far flung rural counties and Native reservations. No one expected for Arizona to be the deciding state. 2018 senate race wasn't called for days

How can you tell Biden's victory in AZ came via California movers instead of native AZ independents  /moderate republicans who detested Trump? Like how can someone tell that X amount of people who moved from this state vote a certain way? I know a lot of right leaning Cali people moved to AZ during covid, so kinda surprised to hear that point.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: February 18, 2023, 09:06:18 PM »

1) Why did Bernie Sanders do worse in 2020 than in 2016, despite having four years to prepare, near-universal name recognition, and being viewed very positively by Democratic primary voters?
2) What was Kamala Harris's plan after her "that little girl was me" confrontation with Biden in that debate, if any? The attacks on Biden on busing never made much sense, because at some point she would have had to argue that busing was good and should be brought back, which is a position that maybe 10% of the population holds, and the policy was never very popular even in the Black community.
3) Why did polls show a bigger lead for Biden than the final results? The polling miss was even bigger than in 2016, they just got the winner right. By contrast, the polls in 2018 were much closer to the mark (though still of in a few key races), and 2022 had an error in the other direction

1. Bernie Sander's campaign expected to lose some support from 2016 to 2020. Some support would be lost to Warren, a fellow progressive. But not a lot because Sanders mostly competed with Biden for voters. Both Biden and Sanders were "beer" while Warren was "wine". They also expected to lose some votes to Biden because of name recongition and some to youth support to "flavor of the month" candidiates. They also acknowledged that Sanders in 2016 had some support because some Democrats just wanted a male or protested Hillary. Some of Bernie's 2016 support just wanted Biden and Bernie was a place holder.

Sanders campaign knew the only way to win was by winning a pluratiy and than a contested convention.

2. Kamala's plan from the start was to be VP. If she became the nominee the better. The "that little girl was me" actually took her campaign by surpise, they weren't expected such a reaction. Thus could not build from that. The Harris campaign was a s*** show behind the scenes and was never going to become a successful operation. So basically no plan.

3. Both the Biden and Trump campaigns knew the polls over performed for Biden. The Biden campaign knew they weren't going to win Florida from internal polls. The Biden campaign final predictions were pretty close, they were only wrong about North Carolina.

Why were the polls wrong again? I don't think any of the books go into great detail. Some things about Trump voters not picking up the phone to Democrats being more likely to stay home.

For # 3, why didn’t the Biden campaign warn downballot Dems (especially the DCCC) that the polls were over performing for Democrats and they needed to play more defense in certain seats?
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