Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Inmate Trump]

Early voting begins tomorrow and I'm planning to go early in the day.  This will be my first time showing up on the first day of in-person voting.  Usually I kinda just go when I feel like it, but this time I'm going first thing.

I hope the rest of my state's Democratic voters are as energized about Stacey as I am, and I hope they plan to vote sooner rather than later.

[Inmate Trump]

Just got back from voting.

I’m in a heavily Trump/Kemp favored district. 80+% for Trump in 2016. There was a woman originally from NYC moved to GA also there who voted for Abrams.  And a middle aged white guy supporting Abrams.  And obviously me supporting her.  There might have been others but out of the 7 or so that were there that’s a fairly promising sign.

We could be the only three in my district going for Abrams, or it could be a sign that things might just turn out alright.

[Inmate Trump]

So these numbers so far look better for Kemp right?  Or am I interpreting it wrong?

[Inmate Trump]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

The people who care about the honor of Lost Cause trash were unlikely to vote for a Democrat and were never voting for a black woman period.

Yea I don’t think it takes away many votes from her.

[Inmate Trump]

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

Polls show him winning, but other than that, I really have no clue.

[Inmate Trump]

^^^ Related to above, I'm back at looking at the EV totals by county and comparing them to the final electorate from 2014. Essentially, I took each county's EV totals and stacked them against Deal/Carter's performance, to calculate what the statewide margin would be if every county's voters supported Abrams and/or Kemp by the same margins as Deal and/or Carter. It's not great:

2014: 52.75% Deal, 44.89% Carter (Deal +7.86)
2018: 53.22% Kemp, 44.42% Abrams (Kemp +8.80)

Just to be clear: this isn't saying that Kemp is ahead by 9 right now, or that he would even win among all voters by the same margin. What it is saying is that historically GOP counties and/or constituencies are actually slightly more represented right now in the 2018 EV than they were among all votes from 2014. In essence, it means likely GOP territory is outpacing DEM territory in early vote relative to what we'd expect in a general election overall, irrespective of the figures. That's not good.

Now, Abrams could very well be doing better in even heavily-GOP counties, there could be more Democrats and non-white voters turning out in otherwise hostile counties for Democrats, Abrams could certainly be over-performing compared to Carter in a variety of heavily-populated counties that Deal won (particularly in metro ATL), and so forth. Nevertheless, what this shows is that right now, base Democratic areas are slacking relative to base GOP areas, which isn't exactly a natural indicator of success.

So we're kinda f**ked, in a way?

Seriously, wtf is wrong with my state?

[Inmate Trump]

Will be great to have President Trump in Macon, GA on Sunday!  Im sure it will have a huge turnout!  Weather is looking horrible for the whole state on Tuesday, with severe thunderstorms likely.  Will be interesting how this impacts turnout.  Regardless, excited to see Georgia's future under the direction of Governor Kemp!!

Ugh.

[Inmate Trump]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

This thread is confusing.  Either things look really good for her or pretty underwhelming.

[Inmate Trump]

^ doesn’t look all that great.

Is it just me?

[Inmate Trump]

I'll still vote (more out of OCD and not wanting to have gaps in my voting history) but I'm willing to put money that this election is neither free or fair and that Kemp uses his position to ensure he wins outright tomorrow.

The last tiny ounce of faith that this country has anything even remotely resembling free elections (faith that was almost nonexistent before I was even of voting age thanks to 2000, despite my support for Bush) is beyond long gone at this point.

Expecting the same thing to happen in Wisconsin as Georgia as well, which was factored into my predictions.

Yea, I’m trying not to get my hopes up.

I think if Kemp was not SoS, then Abrams would probably win outright tomorrow. At least, it would go to a runoff.  Kemp is the type of politician (a Republican) to abuse his power and ensure his victory.

[Inmate Trump]

My prediction for tonight is Kemp barely wins more votes than Abrams (something like 49-47%), and it goes to a December runoff.

I wish I could think more optimistically, but having been around so many red voters (I live and work in a very pro-Trump area) and seeing how energized they are, not by Kemp but by a dislike of Abrams, I think Kemp is going to get more votes but be unable to bring it home.

My wish is that Abrams wins outright tonight.

[Inmate Trump]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

Then why did she do so much better than every Democrat who has run for governor here in the last 20 years? She reached to virtually a tie.

[Inmate Trump]

So why did John Barrow do so well, and why wasn’t he recruited for the governor race instead?

[Inmate Trump]

I just find it weird how no networks have declared Kemp the winner. If there are really just 25k votes left to be counted he would at least be called the Apparent Winner. I’m confused as to what’s the hold up.

Yea, I don’t get that either.

It seems to me Kemp has won (even if by cheating).  I don’t see a way for Abrams to make up the difference, and I highly doubt there’s enough uncounted votes to bring him below 50%.

[Inmate Trump]

Abrams is hurting her political future and also potentially hurting Georgia’s status as a swing state for 2020.

I voted for her; it’s time to concede.

[Inmate Trump]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

I sort of feel like her actions post election haven't put her in a good light.