IMO Cao lost since he announced his bid relatively close to election weekend and thus lost the support of DAers who had endorsed (and voted for) Scott when it was assumed that Spark would be the Federalist candidate.
Also the obvious reality is that Cao/OSR just aren't as aggressive vote hunters as YT/LT. They are more like ATlasia of yore, put yourself out there, do a little GOTV and you were competitive. Now its all about GOTV and AFE board has declined with less campaigns, less speeches, debates, etc.
It does feel like in order to run a successful campaign in Atlasia, you should post a thread and make one speech and focus on GOTV after that.