Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The half a trillion in losses is pretty brutal especially as Ukraine's last GDP was only just over $150 billion. That's more than three years it cost them. Of course they'll get immense foreign aid and investment following this. Ideally Russia should pay reparations...maybe that could be a condition for lifting sanctions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A hero returns home: https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-snake-island-border-guard-160358031.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This guy is a real hero.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL Russia has gotten quite petty: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/31/russia-demands-wikipedia-take-down-information-about-ukraine-war/?sh=48a0567866f2

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1512096434346201088
https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1512092377330110475

Serbia?!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That "war crime" video looks very staged and I'm seeing people debunk things about it...also "Glory to Ukraine" lol, that reminds me of Jussie Smollett's claim he was told "This is MAGA country!"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based Spanish ship captain!

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1511985384623910917

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based Spanish ship captain!

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1511985384623910917

The accent seems to be Slavic from Central Europe, not Spain. It's totally understandable.

Actually a bit weird because Central Europe being mostly landlocked countries would be an odd origin for a ship in a Spanish port. Maybe if Poland counts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine has announced that it'll shoot down any Russian military planes headed toward Transnistria: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3451569-ukraine-to-down-russian-military-aircraft-flying-to-transnistria-general-staff.html

Transnistria is probably finished.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Transnistria situation is interesting. For one Transnistria provides like zero benefits to Russia, zilch, the only reason Russia cared about it initially was to exert influence on Moldova and force it into the CIS, it's a complete backwater even by Moldovan standards (and Moldova was the third to last country in Europe to get any McDonald's when it did in 1998, the second one was Bosnia and Herzegovina which did in 2011, and the final country in Europe with no McDonalds is unsurprisingly Albania), and its entire economy is basically being a Russian-funded welfare state. In 1992 when Russia helped seize it Ukraine was under a pro-Russian regime, so Russia had no issues getting troops and supplies there. Since that's changed Russia now doesn't have easy access to it, in fact I read the main way Russia sent troops there was literally to fly into Chisinau on commercial flights and then get picked up by civilian vehicles and driven out there.

Of course the Moldovan military is unsurprisingly a complete joke. So the question then remains of who else could take it. Romania would probably be interested in backing Moldova on this, the problem is that if Romania is a NATO member but if they started the war couldn't implement Article 5, so Romania would open itself up to a Russian attack if they hit it. Ukraine could probably take it under normal circumstances without breaking a sweat though. The Transnistrian "military" after all is an even bigger joke, they're actually more like the forces of a Mexican drug cartel than any real country's military (appropriate analogy since basically every business in Transnistria is a front for or heavily extorted by the Russian mob and/or corrupt local politicians [there aren't any other type in Transnistria]), so without the Russian troops Transnistria wouldn't last a week. Russia probably can't sustain there for much longer if they keep this up.

Speaking of the extreme corruption, Transnistrian "elections" are almost darkly comic in how much of a joke they are, traditionally a lot of the country wouldn't even engage in ballot stuffing, the local authorities would just toss all the ballots and then make up numbers (still done in Belarus and Chechnya), and everyone knew this and of course no one is allowed to run who isn't owned by Russia or some of the oligarch-owned companies operating there, so turnout is dirt bottom and any type of opposition doesn't even bother. In the last "election" the ruling party ran unopposed in a majority of seats, a couple "independents" won, but in those districts your choice was either: a puppet of the ruling Russia-backed regime belonging to a "party" that's directly affiliated with United Russia or: a puppet of an oligarch-owned company that holds monopolies in most of the country on everything from gas to groceries and gets so much from the national budget in graft it's practically a branch of government in itself. Unsurprisingly this resulted in turnout <30% and 20% of votes being cast for the equivalent of "none of the above", and that's just results that were actually reported as such. This place really needs to go, it's not often that joining Moldova would be such a huge step up, but here we are.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also nice to see that even with Tucker Carlson, only 2% of the US population seems to be swayed against Ukraine. I honestly expected higher.

To be clear, this poll is of whether Ukrainians perceive the country in question as friendly or hostile, not whether people in the country in question perceive Ukraine that way. (Support for the invasion within Russia, while unfortunately higher than it seemed like it might be at the beginning, is nowhere near 98%, for instance.) So that's 2% of Ukrainians who think the US is hostile towards their country, not 2% of Americans who feel hostile towards Ukraine. Polls I've seen of American opinion tend to show negative opinions of Ukraine in the 5-10% range, which is still slightly less than my previous working estimate for how much of this country believes whatever ridiculous crap Tucker Carlson happens to spew no matter how insane it seems (about 15% or so), but you might feel differently.

I remember one poll that said that the breakdown by party of who supported Russia was 5% of Democrats, 5% of independents and 8% of Republicans. The real confusing things is who the 5% of Democrats are, there's no way there's that many "anti-imperialists" in the party that they make up 1 in every 20 members, especially since tankies and the like aren't going to identify as Democrats anyway and the sort of people who rave about opposing NATO into this are usually also the types who also spend most of their time online sh!tposting about their extreme supernova sized hateboners for "The Squad", to say nothing of how they feel about Biden and Democrats to his right.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The rape of German women during WW2 by Russian soldiers is probably the greatest mass rape in human history.

Actually the Japanese probably have even them beat on this. There's a reason one of their atrocities is literally called the "Rape of Nanjing." Not that the Russians don't have this horrific past, the Soviet Union was after all definitely the third worst country for atrocities in WW2 and as noted it didn't start there nor did it end after WW2 or even the USSR collapse.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine should put a bounty on Aleksei Bychkov. Like the equivalent of $1 million to anyone who takes him captive or can prove they killed him. And if taken prisoner he should not be eligible for any POW transfers (just as Ukraine has stated that they will not do exchanges or release any captured Russian pilots) but should be charged with and tried for the appropriate crime under Ukraine's law.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1512733846911041541
Cartoonishly evil.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1512733846911041541
Cartoonishly evil.

S--t like this makes me glad I'm not POTUS, because I probably would have hit the "NUKE MOSCOW" button immediately after I read it.

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1512874902818332680

I actually believe this, not because the Russians would particularly care but because of the sheer propaganda blow he gave to them.

He is not going to be treated well obviously to put it mildly...and it's also nothing less than what he deserves.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Heroes:



These are French gendarmerie who have arrived in Ukraine to do investigation of Russian war crimes. I know France is considered to have some of the best investigators in the world for this sort of thing. Pretty awesome move actually going on site!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Glenn Greenwald uncovers insidious NATO conspiracy: the US doesn't want Russia to win

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513967417604689925?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513968423151222792?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...

Glenn Greenwald does weird stuff sometimes.


https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1513884133470228481

"sometimes"?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if anyone in Ukraine has dedicated the "My King is alive!" song to Zelenskyy.

I know For Today toured in Europe but I don't think they made it Ukraine...but there has to be plenty of people in the Ukrainian hardcore scene who know who they are.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Moskva does go under, it'll be the largest ship sank in combat since WWII.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Update on the Moskva. I have my doubts on the Russian claim. We should have some satellite images in a few hours to verify how badly damaged she is. If she has only been crippled, I don't see why Ukraine won't launch another strike to finish her off.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1514542248557486086

Even if this is true the Moskva is still out of commission, it would take months if not years to repair it and that's assuming Russian had access to all the parts they'd need which under sanctions they don't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia is saying that the Moskva didn't sink, is only badly damaged, and is being towed back to port.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

Yeah even if that's true it's just a hunk of scrap metal now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine sunk their flagship!

Largest warship sunk since WW2!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There now needs to be a "The Virgin Moskva vs. The Chad Ukrainian Anti-Naval Defense" meme!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Today is also the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is what happens when Putin has a temper tantrum. You know seeing a toddler throwing a fit and crying in a store aisle? That's what Putin is doing now except he's not a toddler.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Check out the shirt the first winning kid in this commercial is wearing: