Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1512045013060001805


https://mobile.twitter.com/EP_President/status/1512018889672208392

[rc18]

UK considering sending Armored Cars to Ukraine???

Britain is drawing up plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times. Options include sending a protected patrol vehicle, such as the Mastiff, or a vehicle like the Jackal, which can be used as a reconnaissance or long-range patrol vehicle, a ministry of defence report said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/07/russia-ukraine-war-nato-foreign-ministers-to-meet-as-zelenskiy-dismisses-fresh-sanctions-live-news

We've got lots left over from Iraq and Afghanistan that the government have been itching to ditch anyway. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

Shame we've got sod all tank or SPG stocks to give them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511722816210616321

No. At worst, they will scrap some reserved planes to keep their active fleet in the air.

If this was a problem, there wouldn’t still be RuAF flights in other threatened (Syria, pointless patrols, etc).

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1512053218448183300
A good 🧵 on why the Russia new offensive in the east is heading for disaster

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1512000767514849282?t=MaJqc4lyNfPtlBQyo...

They must be mercilessly expelled from Ukraine. Whatever has to be done. Read the thread. It's bad, very bad.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1512000767514849282?t=MaJqc4lyNfPtlBQyo...

They must be mercilessly expelled from Ukraine. Whatever has to be done.

Send these thugs to The Hague. And take Putler with 'em.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511722816210616321

No. At worst, they will scrap some reserved planes to keep their active fleet in the air.

If this was a problem, there wouldn’t still be RuAF flights in other threatened (Syria, pointless patrols, etc).

Here's the thing, they are running only about 200 sorties daily. Compare that to the 1,000 per day we ran in desert storm and IIRC 1,500 in Iraq 2 electric boogaloo.
They have theoretically huge advantage in available combat aircraft in the theater, but they can't secure uncontested air superiority or proper SEAD and they are running a comparatively small number of flights relative to other modern militaries in major operations.
Based on this, I think they are stretched to the limit in terms of capacity to actually use warplanes, simply based on the fact that if they could ramp up flights they would have by now.

[2952-0-0]

It's been almost two weeks since the last KIA of a Russian general. Back in early March, Russia was losing a general every three or four days.

I wonder what changes were made since then. Part of me was even thinking that Putin was intentionally sending generals into harm's way for coup-proofing.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It's been almost two weeks since the last KIA of a Russian general. Back in early March, Russia was losing a general every three or four days.

I wonder what changes were made since then. Part of me was even thinking that Putin was intentionally sending generals into harm's way for coup-proofing.

Not as many huge columns stuck on the road?

I'm guessing (with little evidence, just intuition) that a good number of those generals were divisional ops chiefs that had to go up front and look very important trying to get things moving again. Which, you know, is generally bad for one's health assume that there are armed people upfront trying to kill you.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1511903789623779333

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mariupol’s defenders have been split into at least two “pockets”, although they might still have limited coordination by air and sea.

https://www.twitter.com/InstantReporter/status/1512074245504856067

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1512000767514849282?t=MaJqc4lyNfPtlBQyo...

They must be mercilessly expelled from Ukraine. Whatever has to be done. Read the thread. It's bad, very bad.

Considering that these intercepts indicate that Bucha was part of a deliberate military strategy that probably is systematic and not restricted to Bucha itself, the genocide charge certainly is starting to make grounds.

Driven mad by the loss of the Cold War and perceived Western slights Russian nationalism has spiraled out of control. In fact it lends credence to a bit of another WWII anology with the Cold War serving as Russia's World War I and the Yeltsin (and early Putin) period as the turbulent Weimar Republic.

[John Dule]

Guys guys, obviously genocide is bad, but it's important that we remain vigilant in case Ukraine hypothetically does something I imagined in my head that would make them worse than Russia. I am a very smart moderate.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys guys, obviously genocide is bad, but it's important that we remain vigilant in case Ukraine hypothetically does something I imagined in my head that would make them worse than Russia. I am a very smart moderate.

Wow, makes you think, we live in a society

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1512096434346201088

https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1512092377330110475

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511722816210616321

No. At worst, they will scrap some reserved planes to keep their active fleet in the air.

If this was a problem, there wouldn’t still be RuAF flights in other threatened (Syria, pointless patrols, etc).

Here's the thing, they are running only about 200 sorties daily. Compare that to the 1,000 per day we ran in desert storm and IIRC 1,500 in Iraq 2 electric boogaloo.
They have theoretically huge advantage in available combat aircraft in the theater, but they can't secure uncontested air superiority or proper SEAD and they are running a comparatively small number of flights relative to other modern militaries in major operations.
Based on this, I think they are stretched to the limit in terms of capacity to actually use warplanes, simply based on the fact that if they could ramp up flights they would have by now.

I wouldn’t expect flights to increase in the short term, but I wouldn’t expect them to decrease for lack of spare parts, either.

In the long term, they are steadily destroying Ukraine’s air defences and aircraft, which have had little to no resupply beyond the very short range of MANPADS.

We’ve also seen less from the Bayraktars, possibly because they are running out of missiles and Turkey only supplies what was paid for before the war.

I would characterise this as slow but real progress towards Russian air superiority. The switchblades could help even things out when they arrive, and more MANPADS will make close air support even harder, but neither of those things is going to threaten most Russian jets in a significant way. Once the more powerful AD is gone, Russian bombing runs are likely to increase in frequency and individual efficacy.

The upshot for Ukraine is that Russia is probably using cruise/ballistic missiles much faster than it can produce them, so their strategy of bombing from a safe distance is increasingly difficult to pursue.

[pppolitics]

I wonder if the war is scarier as a dog or a human

https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1511833630003408897

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/pakistan-pm-imran-khan-paying-the-price-for-being-disobedient-to-washington-says-russia-1097876.html

"Pakistan PM Imran Khan paying the price for being 'disobedient' to Washington, says Russia"

Putin made a mistake by doubling down on Khan in Pakistan.  Pakistan supreme court has ruled Khan's move to dissolve the parliament for early elections illegal and now a new anti-Khan government will likely be installed.  Russia being so close to Khan will now have blowback on Russia with the likely new regime in Pakistan.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Guys guys, obviously genocide is bad, but it's important that we remain vigilant in case Ukraine hypothetically does something I imagined in my head that would make them worse than Russia. I am a very smart moderate.

Moderate? The people claiming Ukrainian atrocities are at the very tips of the horseshoe and getting closer and closer to holding hands.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1512096434346201088
https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1512092377330110475

Serbia?!

[lfromnj]

Guys guys, obviously genocide is bad, but it's important that we remain vigilant in case Ukraine hypothetically does something I imagined in my head that would make them worse than Russia. I am a very smart moderate.

Moderate? The people claiming Ukrainian atrocities are at the very tips of the horseshoe and getting closer and closer to holding hands.

Wait what ? Its one thing to say what Russia is doing is worse. It is true and Russia is clearly the aggressor and has done much more evil than Ukrainian soldiers.  However Ukraine executing captured POWs is still an atrocity people saying they exist is not crazy. IMO the clear solution is to continue giving lend lease but we should restrict it such that any cancelation is only contigent on Ukraine cooperating with prosecution of any war crimes their soldiers committed.

[2952-0-0]

Serbia?!

They probably realized that since the motion was going to pass, they might as well vote with the winning side. Voting no would have exposed them to real consequences without materially helping Russia.

[2952-0-0]

Guys guys, obviously genocide is bad, but it's important that we remain vigilant in case Ukraine hypothetically does something I imagined in my head that would make them worse than Russia. I am a very smart moderate.

Moderate? The people claiming Ukrainian atrocities are at the very tips of the horseshoe and getting closer and closer to holding hands.

Wait what ? Its one thing to say what Russia is doing is worse. It is true and Russia is clearly the aggressor and has done much more evil than Ukrainian soldiers.  However Ukraine executing captured POWs is still an atrocity people saying they exist is not crazy. IMO the clear solution is to continue giving lend lease but we should restrict it such that any cancelation is only contigent on Ukraine cooperating with prosecution of any war crimes their soldiers committed.

I imagine the EU have quietly told the Ukrainians that a non-negotiable condition of accession is that Ukrainian troops who committed war crimes against Russian POWs must be subject to a harsh court-martial, as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That "war crime" video looks very staged and I'm seeing people debunk things about it...also "Glory to Ukraine" lol, that reminds me of Jussie Smollett's claim he was told "This is MAGA country!"

[Splash]

Serbia?!

They probably realized that since the motion was going to pass, they might as well vote with the winning side. Voting no would have exposed them to real consequences without materially helping Russia.

Myanmar is what surprised me.