Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The video of UA soldiers kneecapping Russian POWs is looking more genuine after some work done by the OSINT community.

If Ukraine does not crack down on this, good luck getting more soldiers to surrender after they have seen videos of torture/mistreatment.

Thread below:

https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1508114632673828867

At first, the Ukrainian MoD didn't deny the incident, but pointed out that there were fake videos being distributed to discredit Ukraine. It seems like Ukraine is acknowledging it was real, though - Oleksiy Arestovych, a senior presidential advisor, has promised an immediate investigation and stressed that troops must follow the Geneva Convention.

I don't expect the men will be brought to justice. Given the large number of militiamen running around since the war kicked off, it's possible the Ukrainian MoD would have a hard time holding them to account even if it wanted to.

That the government is willing to go as far as it has to condemn this kind of act is a good sign, but wars get uglier as they go on and it will be an incredibly difficult task to prevent worse than kneecapping on either side. I think a lot of people would be prepared to surrender even with the prospect of kneecapping (look at Northern Ireland for examples), but this will probably change if and when POW massacres start happening in significant numbers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Let's keep trying what hasn't worked for 8 years: accommodating Putin and trying to "de escalate" and "peacefully resolve" a situation the Russians have only ever shown interest in further provoking.

https://twitter.com/PolishHeroes/status/1508317634714124292?s=20&t=qBVopLzqH...

With the opposition to a peackeeping contingent and a no-fly zone Scholz has merely reiterated what NATO's consensus (including the position of the U.S. government) is at this point, so this tweet doesn't contain anything new in terms of facts. Scholz didn't in fact say anything new in yesterday's TV interview this tweet is alluding to either, but this is often his standard modus operandi. Germany's position at this point is sanctions + military aid like any other NATO/EU member.

The oil and gas thing is a special situation related to Germany (and a few other EU countries) that is also well-established by now and has recently led to increased efforts to open up alternative sources of energy ("alternative" in terms of "other countries to buy from" and not only actual alternative energy like solar/wind) quickly.

It continues to be a hotly debated topic within the context of German politics whether we should wait that long and do an oil and gas embargo on Russia instead right now and Scholz is certainly more in the "no embargo" camp here. But not doing anything drastic or rash unless forced to by the circumstances is also his standard modus operandi that could be observed in the recent past with other issues. That means his stance could very well change here in the coming weeks, depending how things develop.

But as I indicated above, this NEXTA tweet is a big non-story, because it doesn't really contain anything new. The newest thing Scholz said in that interview was that he confirmed media reports that his government is discussing buying a missile defense system from Israel.

[Torie]

The overwhelming majority of these were probably Russian-speaking Ukrainians, the same demographic Putin spoke about wanting to protect from 'genocide' by their Ukrainian government as part of his justification for the invasion in the first place:

Civilian death toll in Ukraine surpasses 1,100: UN

The UN office noted that the actual injury and death tolls are likely far higher than its calculations.

"OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration," the office's statement said.

The current casualty count is from the time that Moscow's invasion began on Feb. 24 through midnight local time on Saturday.

Yes, there is a certain irony.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha! https://gur.gov.ua/content/sotrudnyky-fsb-rossyy-uchastvuiushchye-v-prestupnoi-deiatelnosty-stranyahressora-na-terrytoryy-evropy.html

Ukrainian intelligence just released the names of 620 FSB agents throughout Europe. And...their dates of birth, addresses, places of employment and make and registration numbers of their cars. OUCH!

The FSB in Europe is basically crippled.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, that embargo on Russian oil and gas might very well come sooner rather than later.


https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1508418021769031681

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Kadyrov seems to be becoming more important to the war.

https://www.twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1508426419273142278

[Sir Mohamed]

Btw, that embargo on Russian oil and gas might very well come sooner rather than later.


https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1508418021769031681

So it's basically up to Putler himself whether he wants to cave or cut himself off an important revenue source? Either option is bad for him. Could very well have been an own goal and another strategic missstep on his part.

[Storr]

Winter War moment:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1508435315123445761?s=20&t=O19cDokB...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Irpin is fully liberated by Ukraine forces its mayor confirmed on Facebook

[Storr]

The Russians are using 80s radars and showing them in their propaganda videos as if it's some massive triumph:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508372946074624003?s=20&t=lIneaPq...

[pppolitics]

Kadyrov seems to be becoming more important to the war.

https://www.twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1508426419273142278

Russia must be running out of generals.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, that embargo on Russian oil and gas might very well come sooner rather than later.


https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1508418021769031681

So it's basically up to Putler himself whether he wants to cave or cut himself off an important revenue source? Either option is bad for him. Could very well have been an own goal and another strategic missstep on his part.

Putin is a very stable genius.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kadyrov seems to be becoming more important to the war.

https://www.twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1508426419273142278

Ukrainian snipers: 👀

[Sir Mohamed]

The Russians are using 80s radars and showing them in their propaganda videos as if it's some massive triumph:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508372946074624003?s=20&t=lIneaPq...

sUPeRpOWeR!1!!1

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/1508424057770889222

[Gass3268]

UAE starting to pull out of Russia?

https://twitter.com/havivrettiggur/status/1508458284939984905?s=20&t=4b8HNOM...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/MaximColch/status/1508461578416496643

what

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/MaximColch/status/1508461578416496643

what

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1508465158703796231

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1508460803791503364

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/MaximColch/status/1508461578416496643

what

See thread,

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=3pd0svMdBlS...

Incidentally this also explains why a few days ago Russian-affiliated trolls on twitter out of the blue started claiming Rustem Umerov was dead.

[It’s so Joever]

Changes on the frontlines according to Wikipedia (aka barrel of salt source)

-Slavutych has not been captured by the Russians fully and there still is fighting
-Snovsk has been fully captured by the Russians
-The Ukrainians have done a successful counteroffensive and reclaimed Krasnopilia
-The Russians have reached Borova
-Ukrainians are still fighting for Popasna
-Velyka Oleksandrivka has been liberated by the Ukrainians
-Ukrainians are trying to retake Novovorontsovka

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1508460803791503364

Certainly possible, if Ukraine is pulling off a successful counteroffensive in that area Irpin would almost certainly be first to be freed fully based on geography. There will probably be lots of visual confirmation across social media soon if true.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1508474128906469388

[dead0man]

I keep seeing that we can't send them this or that western weapons system because they lack the training and experience.  I sure hope there are a few hundred Ukrainian techs, troops and teachers currently sitting in various NATO classrooms right now learning these systems (and how to teach them to others).  Sure they might not be ready for months or even years, but better to get that process started sooner than later, right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The half a trillion in losses is pretty brutal especially as Ukraine's last GDP was only just over $150 billion. That's more than three years it cost them. Of course they'll get immense foreign aid and investment following this. Ideally Russia should pay reparations...maybe that could be a condition for lifting sanctions.