2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

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It would be better for the conferences to all work together on alignment, rather than doing it piecemeal here and there.

For example, a year ago, the remaining G5s could have picked CUSA apart and just left a G4, but instead they gave CUSA the chance to rebuild with FCS and Independent teams. Similarly, the Big 12 and Big 10 (and maybe SEC?) could pick apart the Pac-12 and get it down to a P4, but they won't. So instead, we'll just more G5 teams joining P5 leagues, and in a few years, more Pac-12 teams are going to leave.

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In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

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In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

Stanford and Cal don't want to be relegated to ESPN+.

It's probably happening anyway if they can't get into the Big 10.

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In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

Stanford and Cal don't want to be relegated to ESPN+.

It's probably happening anyway if they can't get into the Big 10.

The Pac 12 dies then?

I think so, either in fact or in spirit.

If the conference gets down to 4 (Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, and Stanford) and invites 5-6 more teams to replace them out of the G5 ranks, it's pretty clearly not a power conference anymore.

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There's always Cal Baptist for the WCC, or else call up someone from the D2 Pacific West Conference.

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Also Virginia Tech doesn't appear to have made the cut

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Florida State 247 insiders say there is a lot of rumbling about the Seminoles pulling out of the ACC in the next 3 weeks. If this happens, it 90% means that they and Miami are headed to the Big Ten. Absolutely crazy stuff.

I highly doubt the SEC will sit back and let Florida State slip away to the Big 10. Miami, maybe.

I expect Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and 1-5 other ACC schools to eventually move over to the SEC.

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ACC also looking to expand.

Other than Notre Dame, or a shock move like Florida or South Carolina leaving the SEC, I can't think of any school that fits the geographic profile and is a fit.

Maybe UConn?

Crazy prediction (kinda): Stanford, Cal. Maybe Washington and Oregon if those don't go to the Big 10.

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Maryland and/or Rutgers to the ACC?

No way anyone is leaving the Big 10 for the ACC, period.

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Rumor is Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson this week.

I'm very skeptical. If ACC teams are available, the Big 10 would be going for North Carolina and Virginia.

I mean, I guess it's possible that UNC and UVA have chosen the SEC over the Big 10, while Florida State and Clemson chose the Big 10 over the SEC, but that would be pretty surprising.

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Rumor is Big 10 adds Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson this week.

I'm very skeptical. If ACC teams are available, the Big 10 would be going for North Carolina and Virginia.

I mean, I guess it's possible that UNC and UVA have chosen the SEC over the Big 10, while Florida State and Clemson chose the Big 10 over the SEC, but that would be pretty surprising.

If the idea is that the Big10 and SEC are planning to become two super conferences and ditch the NCAA (something likely to happen sooner or later!) taking Clemson and FSU, the two most financially valuable teams in the ACC, makes sense. Both schools are great for TV ratings, would assist current members in recruiting the south, and keep more value away from the SEC.

Clemson and FSU would leap at it too; its hard to underemphasize just how bad the ACC grant of rights is. ACC schools are already making $10 million less a year than Big10 schools and $18 million less yearly than SEC schools, a gap guaranteed to widen as college football in particular becomes more and more profitable and the contract does not allow for payment amounts to be renegotiated. There's real danger that ACC schools will not be able to compete as top tier programs due to the financial gap with the other conferences within a decade if this keeps up. And they're stuck in the deal until 2036. That's the whole reason I don't believe the current round of rumors; not because it doesn't make sense but because I don't believe anyone has figured out how to break the GoR contract.

My understanding (and you never know what's really true on the Internet) is that the ACC can dissolve the conference with a majority vote, which would be 8. So if you have 8 schools leaving for some combination of Big 10/SEC, it could happen.

However, ESPN has the contract for both the ACC and SEC, so they don't really want to cannibalize their own markets unless the Big 10 basically forces them to.

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The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

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I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

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I'll say it again- the Ivy League should embrace NIL and move up to the FBS, and Stanford should join it if the Big 10 doesn't invite them. Same for Rice.

It's never going to happen. The Ivy's are stodgy and melodramatic about amateurism. In fact, I'll wager that the Ivy League is more likely to leave the NCAA and go and do their own thing than SEC and Big Ten are, so they can go back to players not getting compensated for playing.

Yeah, they'd have to change their attitude, but a 10-team league with Stanford and Rice (or imagine a 14-team league with Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Duke, and Tulane) would have deep pocket$ and could probably make themselves the 4th best overall conference athletically if it really committed.

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I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

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I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

Both Oregon State and Washington State fit in nicely in the Mountain West or American, so it's not like they don't have somewhere to go if the PAC-12 really does collapse.

Well yeah they'll go to the Mountain West, but it really sucks that they have been kicked out of the "power conferences" through no fault of their own.

Even if they hold on to the Pac name and invite the better MWC/AAC teams to join, that's still not going to be considered a power conference.

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Did state politicians shut it down because Oregon State and Washington State were getting left behind? Do they have powerful alumni in the legislatures?

I don't think there's any way the Big 10 takes all 4 of those, nor the Big 12.

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Did state politicians shut it down because Oregon State and Washington State were getting left behind? Do they have powerful alumni in the legislatures?

Guess not

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The ACC won't bother expanding because none of the public schools in the conference have any intention of staying in it. All of them will end up in the SEC or Big 10, or Big 12 if neither of those 2 send an invite.

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There's no point in trying to add 6-8 teams to the Pac when all 4 remaining teams are desperately trying to find another conference to join in the first place.

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At this point, I think the ACC's best hope is to add all 4 of the remaining Pac schools, plus SMU and San Diego State, to go for 20 football (21 overall), and hope that the coming raids by the Big 10 and SEC leave a good enough core to survive. They could come out of that raid with about 10 or so teams probably and then there's a whole AAC to build back up from.

The other option is a surrender - sit down with the SEC, Big 10, and Big 12 and negotiate a landing spot for every team in the conference, and if all 3 conferences will agree to take everyone (and/or include the Big East too), they'll just go ahead an dissolve with no exit fees. Of course solutions like this are too logical to actually happen in real life, but it would make sense.

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My suggestion, all of which seem like good fits:

SEC (24) - Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State
Big 10 (22) - Stanford, Cal, Syracuse, Notre Dame, plus maybe 2 Big 12 schools?
Big 12 (19/17) - Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU
Big East - Boston College, Wake Forest (can be football only in AAC or CUSA)