Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

Occam's razor: Split-ticket voting in a state with very few genuinely persuadable voters will be absolutely minimal after two months in which voters are reminded that both races will end up deciding control of the Senate, and Perdue's ‘superior candidate quality’/Loeffler's ‘inferior candidate quality’ will have a negligible to non-existent impact on the outcome. Unless either race is decided by <.4 points or something like that, there’s little to no chance of a split decision.

Once again:

Turnout patterns + composition of the electorate >>> ‘candidate quality’

I agree

[Frenchrepublican]

This hasn't been mentioned. Don't forget that even Joe Biden isn't at 50% in Georgia.  The Libertarian Party is around 2.5% of the vote in Georgia (in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race) and historically their voters go heavily to the Republicans in any runoff.

I'm sure some of that 2.5% (114,483 votes right now) for the Libertarian candidate wasn't for the Libertarians but was a 'none of the above vote' but, the Libertarian Party does have a good organization in Georgia (relatively speaking) so, there are a fair number of genuine Libertarian voters in Georgia and historically they've gone heavily to the Republican in any runoff.

"historically" does not mean now.

Especially not when these are Libertarians and the Republican Party has become dramatically more authoritarian in recent years.

Most people who voted libertarian in this race simply hate both large parties.

[Frenchrepublican]

💵 💵 💵 💵
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1326377249277415425?s=20

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1326170380516593665?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Anecdotal, but I know a first-time voter from Georgia who is pretty much a centrist having voted for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock. He says doesn't want a Democratic trifecta so he will probably be voting for Perdue and Loeffler in the runoff.

I still try to convince him to to reconsider his support for Loeffler at least with the argument that this would still avoid a Dem trifecta but ensure that Attila's Barbie Girl gets kicked out of Congress. Hope he changes his mind..

Wondering how many Georgians think the way he does.

I really don't get people. So they voted for all 3 in the original race but ... now don't want a Dem trifecta?? Huh?

Court packing + 3.5$ trillons public spendings in more + massive tax increases + Green new deal

[Frenchrepublican]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

Not sure that turning the US into a one party state is a very compelling message to seduce center right voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

If AOC or "The squad" are far left, how is MTG not extreme far right?

Because MTG (like Sarah Palin for example) is too stupid to have any ideological position, she is simply a moron who was lucky enough to get a safe seat in the House.

But she is more into complotist theories than far right ideology.

Far right = Steve King

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

If you think that this woman is sane.....


https://twitter.com/MaxineWaters/status/1324491527662391296?s=20

https://twitter.com/MaxineWaters/status/1325113841164804097?s=20

https://twitter.com/RepMaxineWaters/status/1208218759565066241?s=20

https://twitter.com/RepMaxineWaters/status/1269038270064844801?s=20

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/dec/17/maxine-waters-i-believe-trump-putin-conspiracy-eve/

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328445205066838016?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

Thank you for saying that. I did not dare saying it myself because I would have been called a racist, but yeah calling a corrupt career politican like her a public servant is really a disservice to true public servants (militaries, nurses.....)

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

LOL

He is lucky that GA has very few true swing voters and that most Biden voters are hardcore straight ticket democratic voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

Insane

https://twitter.com/danbayens/status/1329177724657790984?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1329401478679818241?s=20

⬆️ According to the NYT Warnock has raised 40M dollars since Election Day.

Quote : “Everybody’s hopped up with the U.S. Senate on the line and in many ways the fate of the presidency and the courts,” said Mr. Reed, who predicted with more than a little hyperbole that $500 million could be spent on the election. “It’s crazytown.”’

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1329880058580918276?s=20

It will be interesting to see how much democratic PACs spend, anyway it's fair to say that this will be the most expensive senatorial election ever.

[Frenchrepublican]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

[Frenchrepublican]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

Absurd comparison.

Money will help you when you are running on favourable ground as it can help you drive down the image of your opponent (if you spend $ 45M of negative ads against Manchin in which you attack him on his anti guns positions you can bet it will damage him), now sure if you are running in a hostile state money will have a more limited effect.

[Frenchrepublican]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

Absurd comparison.

Money will help you when you are running on favourable ground as it can help you drive down the image of your opponent (if you spend $ 45M of negative ads against Manchin in which you attack him on his anti guns positions you can bet it will damage him), now sure if you are running in a hostile state money will have a more limited effect.

Perfectly responsible comparison.

Throwing money at a race doesn't mean you win. How many times will super funded candidates have to lose for people to understand this.

We had the ultimate experiment with Michael Bloomberg, who went down in flames despite spending an ungodly mountain of cash.

Throwing money in a state / district which is fundamentally hostile to you is not going to help you if the message is so so, sure, now throwing money in a state / district which structurally leans your way will at least help you to destroy the image of your opponent and to nationalize the race, and when a race which takes place on favourable ground is nationalised you will win it (see Peterson fall in Minnesota).

[Frenchrepublican]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

Absurd comparison.

Money will help you when you are running on favourable ground as it can help you drive down the image of your opponent (if you spend $ 45M of negative ads against Manchin in which you attack him on his anti guns positions you can bet it will damage him), now sure if you are running in a hostile state money will have a more limited effect.

Perfectly responsible comparison.

Throwing money at a race doesn't mean you win. How many times will super funded candidates have to lose for people to understand this.

We had the ultimate experiment with Michael Bloomberg, who went down in flames despite spending an ungodly mountain of cash.

Throwing money in a state / district which is fundamentally hostile to you is not going to help you if the message is so so, sure, now throwing money in a state / district which structurally leans your way will at least help you to destroy the image of your opponent and to nationalize the race, and when a race which takes place on favourable ground is nationalised you will win it (see Peterson fall in Minnesota).

And? Republicans spent in West Virginia and Montana. Trump visited Montana more than any other state. It's true that the NRSC wasted time in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona that year but just spending more isn't going to win.

Sarah Gideon had a mountain of dollars in a state Biden won by 10. It did her no good because her message was bad.

Manchin outspent Morrissey by 2 to 1 ratio, in MT it was even worse.

[Frenchrepublican]

Regular is Likely R; Special is Lean R. Biden only won Georgia because of Trump's collapse in the suburbs; these people are not giving Democrats a trifecta even though the filibuster is here to stay. Only hope for Democrats is if Republicans think the election will be rigged and don't show up.

If there were that many of those people, GA-R wouldn’t have gone to a runoff. I do think the people you’re describing exist in non-insignificant numbers (enough for Perdue/Loeffler to win narrowly), but make no mistake: the writing is on the wall in this state, and the last thing Republicans should be doing right now is getting too cocky because of some belief that runoffs inherently favor Rs in the state/GA will ‘snap back’/etc.

Also, most of the D gains in places like Gwinnett aren’t a result of ancestral Republicans switching parties but rather demographic shifts/D-friendly migration patterns/generational turnover.

Exactly, just look at Henry County for an illustration : Obama 2012 = 46% / Biden 2020 = 59%

The explanation ? Black people moving in the county. In 2010 the county was 36% black, in 2019 it was 48%, do the maths, all the democratic growth was due to black voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

If D's assume the majority DURBIN will be Chairman of Judiciary and usher in DC Statehood, victory

DC is a bit more complicated for various reasons... But I think it's crazy that there is any debate regarding Puerto Rico's right to statehood.  For a long time now, Puerto Rico becoming the 51st state seemed to be almost a foregone conclusion (long before it became such a politicized issue).
 

Except that Puerto Ricans are very divided on the issue, you have those who want independance, those who want to keep the statu quo and those who want to become a state.

At the moment no opinion is majoritarian so the situation is gridlocked

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

Possibly, but I think 2020 should have taught everyone to not read too much into early numbers. They can give indications, but they certainly aren’t definitive.

It's why I said ''could''

[Frenchrepublican]

Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Your comparisons are absurd.

You can't really put Bevin/Moore and Perdue / Loeffler in the same bag

[Frenchrepublican]

Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Your comparisons are absurd.

You can't really put Bevin/Moore and Perdue / Loeffler in the same bag

But Georgia and Alabama aren't either.

Sure but what the other poster implied is that Moore lost because of Trump support, it's no sense.

[Frenchrepublican]

Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Your comparisons are absurd.

You can't really put Bevin/Moore and Perdue / Loeffler in the same bag

But Georgia and Alabama aren't either.

Sure but what the other poster implied is that Moore lost because of Trump support, it's no sense.

I dont wanna say those candidates lost because of trump support, they had their own share of problems. However when Trump endorsed those candidates, you could say the opposition was more motivated to oppose him stronger

In the case of Moore/Bevin the democratic base was already motivated anyway so without Trump's backing Moore and Bevin would likely have done even worse.

Now you can probably make the argument that Trump campaigning in LA helped Edwards as it motivated blacks to turn out for him, after all the electorate in november was more dem friendly than during the jungle primary.