Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Mr.Phips]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

A winning GOP map doesn’t exist without winning Loudon or Henrico counties.

[Mr.Phips]

Youngkin could turn out to be a problem for McAuliffe.

VA voters might have a Dem. fatigue by November and elect him (barely), but Gov. Murphy should easily hang on in NJ.

A 1R, 1D win would be the same result for Biden as Reagan in 1981.

In the 40 years in between, the new President always lost both races ...

Dems losing either race in November would not be a good sign for them.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1441374272602218496

Because of course.

Here we go again.  Dems are going to lose a state that Biden won by 10 points.  Of course this is happening. 

[Mr.Phips]

What should we expect? Everyone wants the horse race. They wanted it with CA and they want it with this. Love the notion of a simultaneous Newsom landslide in CA but also the "national environment souring for Dems".

Not to mention the public polling is showing a "close ish" race in the sense that there hasn't been a ton of high quality polling, but it's still all generally been McAuliffe +3-5, with some outliers on both sides.

Not to mention the polling average in 2017 was literally Northam +3. This is feeling like that race all over again.

In 2017, Northam had the boost from an unpopular Trump in the White House.  Now the shoe is on the other foot.

[Mr.Phips]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

VA elections have always been overhyped by the MSM, but I would be surprised if this turned into a "2017 redux," and I think Republicans should be concerned if McAuliffe wins by the same margin as Northam.

I’m not a fan of concepts like "redux," but the closest analogies I can think of here are IA-GOV/OH-GOV 2018 — the race ends up at something close to a McAuliffe +4 win, which would also be in line with the CA swing from 2020. Republicans put up a decent candidate with fairly good messenging, the environment is somewhat favorable to them (even if not massively so), but the state is too far gone at that point.

McAuliffe and Murphy both winning in a blowout close to the 2020 result would indicate that the R brand is toxic enough to sink even generic/"inoffensive" Republicans (conservative =/= offensive!) in non-federal races and trump (no pun intended) local issues, and at that point the GOP should worry about implications for 2022. They absolutely don’t need to win states like VA or NJ just like Democrats didn’t need IA or OH for a wave, but if they can’t even achieve a moderate swing from 2020, something is obviously wrong.

BTW I thought Dems would win both the OH and IA governorships in 2018 (they actually held leads in polling averages in both).  It should turn out to be something like McAuliffe + 4, but who knows.

[Mr.Phips]

Chaz nuttycombe says dems will lose 10 to 15 seats in the house of delegates.

He said that this is what would happen if Youngkin actually wins.

[Mr.Phips]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race wins the race by 3 points 6 points single-digits but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

Fixed for moving goalposts

For the record, I fully expect Democrats to win and if they lose, it's a sign of a massive Republican wave (think R+8-10, if not more) building in 2022. As I said earlier, I don't think the votes exist for Republicans to win Virginia, at this point.

You’re probably looking at an R+7 ish environment if Youngkin wins, which is basically like 2010.  I think the Dem floor in the popular vote is around 45%-46%.

[Mr.Phips]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

I'm sticking with McAuliffe +2.5

Youngkin will improve dramatically everywhere else, but given what we have seen in all the elections so far this year, how is he supposed to be the one R candidate that swings the college+ inner suburbs vote?

I think the HoD is basically Lean R, though.  All those Trump->Biden outer suburbs districts are majorly at risk.

Also Sears and Miyares could get enough crossover votes to win.  

There is literally one Trump > Biden district that Dems hold in the HOD.  For Republicans to win the majority, they have to win districts Biden won by double digits.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know if it was mentioned here but Biden will be in VA to campaign with T-Mac on Tuesday.

Might as well since Dems running away from their Presidents have never helped them in the past.

[Mr.Phips]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

[Mr.Phips]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

Hard to imagine that someone who voted for Biden would cuss you out for calling from the McAuliffe campaign.

[Mr.Phips]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

Hard to imagine that someone who voted for Biden would cuss you out for calling from the McAuliffe campaign.

I can't imagine his organization targeting anything but Likely D Biden voters at this point.  They usually switch over to lean D and undecideds during the final week of the election. 

I remember when I worked for a PAC re-electing Corzine after Obama had won in 2008.  We had tons of new voter data from the Obama 2.0 campaign helping us target lean Ds.  I was berated on the phones every single day by Democrats and lean D independents that were sick tax increases.  It's all they cared about. We made no headway in suburban communities.  Didn't matter if they were African American, Hispanic or White. 

Lol I find it very hard to believe you would ever work for a Democrat.

[Mr.Phips]

I have a question. If McAuliffe does lose, what do you think will have been the biggest reasons as to why he lost?

Here's my 5 reasons as to why McAuliffe might lose.

#1. Biden's unpopularity.

It can definitely be said that Biden is in a much weaker position in terms of his approval ratings than he was even three short months ago. Biden is underwater in several Virginia polls as well which might indicate Biden's national popularity has carried over to The Old Dominion State. If McAuliffe loses, part of that may very well be because Youngkin was able to tie him to Biden successfully.

#2. Youngkin has been a relatively decent candidate and has run a good campaign for a Republican in Virginia.

If Amanda Chase was the GOP nominee, we would likely not be having discussions about this race being close. Youngkin became the nominee though and he can be stated to have done a relatively decent job at appealing to both Trumpers by advocating for many of Trump's ideas and moderate Republicans/independents by speaking in at least a slightly more reserved tone on the campaign trail.

#3. Youngkin might win out on the education issue.

The issue of education has arguably become the biggest issue of this race and Youngkin has been doing fairly well on the issue of education in most polls. If more voters end up trusting Youngkin more than McAuliffe on election day on the issue of education, that should bode well for his chances.

#4. Turnout

If Youngkin wins, It may be partly so due to having a relatively high rural turnout with McAuliffe having a relatively lackluster turnout in urban areas and suburbs.

#5. McAuliffe might simply be a rather lackluster candidate.

While yes, McAuliffe was previously governor. It can be argued that he doesn't have that much of enthusiastic supporters. The same arguably cannot be said for Youngkin who definitely seems to have a pretty loud and energetic base of support. In this sense, it could be seen as a mini-2016 presidential election. Clinton was leading in most of the polls but suffered from a lackluster turnout while Trump's base was rather energetic for him and if McAuliffe loses, I'm sure these comparisons might well be brought up.

If McAuliffe does lose, I think it will have been due to a combination of these five factors.

Good take.

#4 is the most important point in my opinion. If McAuliffe actually ends up losing this race, it will be due to low turnout from Dem and D-leaning voters across the board. That would continue the pattern that voters of the sitting prez become far less motivated to vote, while voters of the opposition are out there to vote against the current admin. We also saw this at the beginning of the Obama and Trump tenures.

That said, it says nothing about the next presidential election. Obama still got reelected and Trump came closer than polls and previous election returns suggested. I still expect Atlas to completely freak out over a Youngkin victory and declare Biden and/or Harris 2024 completely DOA.

Who cares about the next Presidential election if Dems are a super minority in Congress and can’t get anything done.

[Mr.Phips]

2022 is going to be a worse year for Democrats than 2014.

Don’t know how much lower they can go than that when it comes to House, Senate, and state legislatures.  They were really scraping the bottom that year.

[Mr.Phips]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

The problem is the 2016 coalition doesn't actually help Dems win anything.  What they need is for the Biden coalition to filter downballot and solve their geography problems through Southern suburbs and small cities more generally.  So far, that just isn't happening.   

The Biden coalition in 2020 was a short term reaction to Trump, much like the Carter coalition in 1976 was a one time reaction to reaction to Watergate.

[Mr.Phips]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

The problem is the 2016 coalition doesn't actually help Dems win anything.  What they need is for the Biden coalition to filter downballot and solve their geography problems through Southern suburbs and small cities more generally.  So far, that just isn't happening.  

The Biden coalition in 2020 was a short term reaction to Trump, much like the Carter coalition in 1976 was a one time reaction to reaction to Watergate.

If that is true, then Dems are screwed for a decade, especially with the Hispanic GOP trend continuing beyond Trump.

2024 will likely produce a GOP supermajority in the senate if they win the presidential race, so it's kind of a must-win for Dems.  I could see the party that loses 2028 being better off in the long run though, between redistricting control, China likely peaking in power, and the social security/medicare situation really coming to a head.  But 2024 is the Republican New Deal if they win.    

If Dems win the Presidential race in 2024, they very likely lose 2028.  

[Mr.Phips]

If Democrats have a covid fear mongering campaign in the next cycle in Virginia, it could transition to quite a republican state.

If they do not have a covid fear mongering campaign, I would guess they win back the House of Delegates.

If we're talking about 2023, COVID will almost surely be conclusively over by then.  If a 2022 HoD election happens, that is a little iffier.  With presidential midterm turnout, I doubt VA Dems could flip back the HoD in 2022 anyway.  It would have to be driven by the new map, maybe with some Roe backlash thrown in.

COVID will never be “over”.  At some point it will be like the flu, but it will never be gone.

Anyway, the new HOD map will probably give Dems back their Fredericksburg seat by not splitting that city anymore.  They may also get another Loundon seat that is around Biden + 15.  That would tie the chamber again.

[Mr.Phips]

If Democrats have a covid fear mongering campaign in the next cycle in Virginia, it could transition to quite a republican state.

If they do not have a covid fear mongering campaign, I would guess they win back the House of Delegates.

If we're talking about 2023, COVID will almost surely be conclusively over by then.  If a 2022 HoD election happens, that is a little iffier.  With presidential midterm turnout, I doubt VA Dems could flip back the HoD in 2022 anyway.  It would have to be driven by the new map, maybe with some Roe backlash thrown in.

COVID will never be “over”.  At some point it will be like the flu, but it will never be gone.

Anyway, the new HOD map will probably give Dems back their Fredericksburg seat by not splitting that city anymore.  They may also get another Loundon seat that is around Biden + 15.  That would tie the chamber again.

Wouldn't that be the existing narrow Biden Loudoun-Clarke seat they currently hold?  I think there would have to be 2 heavily Biden seats around Charlottesville/Albemarle, though, and possibly one more easy Dem seat in Chesterfield.

The current Loudoun-Clark seat will likely have to contract and lose some or all of its rural territory.  Very possible a new Loudoun seat needs to be created.  And yes, probably another stron Dem district in the Charlottesville area.  Under a new map, Dems have a pretty decent chance at winning back a majority even in a bad year. 

[Mr.Phips]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats. 

I think in the HOD, you are missing the Biden + 11/Youngkin +2 south side seat (Kim Taylor).

[Mr.Phips]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

[Mr.Phips]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

If 2023 is a rehash of 2022, Democrats win.

It's VA 1st year stuff that historically correlates with the midterm.  VA 3rd year stuff doesn't correlate with much of anything.

The third year often does.  The only time it really didn’t was 2011, when Dems did pretty badly even though 2012 was a decent year for them.  1995, 2003, and 2015 were all years where there was pretty much no change.  1999 had a small change, but it was enough to shift the assembly to Rs.  2007 was a good Dem year that foreshadowed 2008.  2019 was a good Dem year, but Dems underperformed expectations a bit (failed to pick up a few HOD seats many thought they’d win and didn’t pick up the VA Beach and Henrico/Hanover seats that Clinton won in the Senate).

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

The DNC basically needs to give more like $10M to Virginia.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Perry has outraised Segura last quarter 2:1 (and in general the rest of the Democrats) - Segura still has an advantage in overall fundraising, but it's shrunk considerably. I'm not sure I would still rate the seat at Lean R.

I wouldn’t rate it any better than tossup for Republicans and probably tilt D, especially if there is a government shutdown.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

I disagree with the idea Biden's 2020 performance was the all-time peak of Dems federally in VA. Warner literally outran Biden; Kaine in 2018 did so by a lot. Sure those races weren't seriously contested, but show it's feasibly possible for Dems to outrun Biden 2020 numbers in VA.

Not saying that'll happen here in the legislative elections, but with the exception of maybe 2 seats, all the Biden 2020 State House seats in VA are either safe/likely blue or have been shifting left. It's not hard to see Dems getting like 57 seats even if the statewide environment is only like D+6 or smtg. 58 is probably on the upper end of realistic, but def not impossible.

Agree State Sen is prolly a harder lift for Rs than the statehouse, especially since even Dem's seat 21 is to the left of the state in most recent election results. In the statehouse there are a ton of Biden + 7ish statehouse seats Rs have a fighting chance in.

1.I don't think Biden would even win Virginia by 6 if the elections were held today, given the polling.

2.Virginia is definitely redder at the state level than the federal level.

I could see Democrats flip the House narrowly and win 22-18 in the Senate, but my current prediction is 50-50 House and 21-19 Senate, with Republicans still in the game for a trifecta if late deciders break R as they did in 2021/2022.

This isn't that hard, because the most probable 22nd Dem seat is Biden +9, has a Dem incumbent, and voted Dem in 2022.  22D/18R in the state senate could reasonably happen while R's hold or tie the HoD.  Dems need Biden +7ish seats for control in the HoD.

I believe Dems only need Biden + 11 seats for control of the HOD.