Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Progressive Pessimist]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

[Progressive Pessimist]

McAuliffe will win by at least 5%.

The Virginia GOP is lucky that they didn't nominate Chase, but all that's really worth is them losing by less than an absolute blowout.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It was literally ONE school board meeting in one town that's not really indicative of anything, especially in Loudon County, where Joe Biden won by 25%. This is just messy journalism

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1413274684007882762

Also the county which is home to GOP DC organizers and lobbyists, which is why they get an outsized amount of coverage for a diversifying county now dominated by govt-adjacent liberals.

By this logic Democrats ought to target the Macomb County voters who drive to Oakland County to shop at the county's Whole Foods.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Does Trump honestly think that "vote counters" led to his double-digit loss in Virginia in 2020? Probably, I've heard New Hampshire's votes even be put in the "stolen" category-a seven point loss apparently could have been overcome in his, and his followers', deluded mindset.

[Progressive Pessimist]

-rolls eyes-

https://twitter.com/gabriellaborter/status/1418247754313252871

This is just like those senior Biden voters in the Villages who flipped Florida to him due to being "fired up" over Trump's handling of the pandemic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am terrified that  that after the election that Trumpkin supporters will come and invade Nova, Richmond, Charlottesville and Norfolk...

what on earth are you talking about?

Yeah, I mean, Trump supporters would never invade Charlottesville!

Yea these youngkin fans are surreal.. they worship a guy who is literally a rich some dude. Nothing special at all about him. He seems to have magnetic powers. The trumpkin supporters won't handle a loss well

Just like Ron DeSantis. This seems to be a trend among Republicans.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm afraid if Youngkin is elected he will send the entire virignia national guard and all active duty military in the state over to Afghanistan to keep the war going

That's ridiculous, but I do think that we could see the GOP advocate for getting involved with Afghanistan again just out of spite for Biden and for finally having something they think they can use against him. That's a real out-of-touch risk though because most Americans still support the withdrawal, they probably just didn't like seeing it. Americans don't even vote on foreign policy anymore anyway, especially once it leaves their consciousness, so I dare the Republicans to go through with getting involved with the quagmire again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

McAuliffe will win but by 2-5 points.....

McAuliffe will be seen as a potential 2024/2028 contender because he is an attack dog and is partisan and he will use that in the debates....

That is what he is known for....

Dems should not take VA, NJ for granted, just like how Republicans shouldn't take FL or TX for granted...

Every sentence of this is preposterous.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Really? Democrats are the ones who "fear-monger?" Especially about abortion? I can't wait for this guy to lose, ideally by more than Northam whooped Gillespie by (though I doubt it).

[Progressive Pessimist]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1437768503499575298

lmao

After the recall results this looks like an even better campaign tactic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The McAuliffe campaign is probably going to go into onslaught mode against Youngkin in these final few weeks, when they'd be the most potent, if that audio leak is anything to go by.

I predicted the election ending up as McAuliffe+6 for awhile, but I might bump that up to McAuliffe+7, at least, now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The McAuliffe campaign is probably going to go into onslaught mode against Youngkin in these final few weeks, when they'd be the most potent, if that audio leak is anything to go by.

I predicted the election ending up as McAuliffe+6 for awhile, but I might bump that up to McAuliffe+7, at least, now.

Agreed.  It's about to get really nasty.  And I agree with the post above, the reason they aren't releasing stuff is so there isn't complacency.  T Mac doesn't need to persuade anyone, he just needs to get his people out.

But if the GOP thinks there is going to be complacency here that is very wishful thinking.  A significant portion of the Dem base is highly educated NOVA voters.  They are going to turn out.  If anything I'm gonna be watching the turnout in SW VA to see if there's significant drop-off without Trump on the ballot. 

Base turnout is definitely the future of our elections as our political divides continue increasing. It's why fear works so well as a motivator, for both sides. Of course Democrats have many more justified reasons to fear their state turning into Florida or Texas than Republicans do of critical race theory.

[Progressive Pessimist]

if youngkin wins I will literally roll around on the ground and scream angrily!!!

Well sounds like you won't be rolling around on the ground and screaming angrily then.

But didn't you see his astrological prediction?

I completely forgot that jimmie does that.

It reminds me of my sister. She had a crystal pendulum and to try and get me interested in it she did a prediction of the 2020 election. She told me that Sanders would defeat Trump...yeah. It's only slightly less reliable than the average poll though, to be fair.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

After what happened in California, I'm of the opinion that these articles are a net positive to Democrats, especially in high media intake states like Virginia.

I agree. Even in races like this which Democrats will not lose no matter what, I perpetually think that it's beneficial to run or look at a campaign as if one is losing. Better safe than sorry, and at a minimum it may galvanize the Democratic base to turn out due to not wanting to take a risk by sitting the election out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

That probably will be true in 2022, but in 2020 and 2018 Virginia was way more Democratic than Iowa was Republican.

[Progressive Pessimist]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

That probably will be true in 2022, but in 2020 and 2018 Virginia was way more Democratic than Iowa was Republican.

No it wasn't.

Iowa at Trump +8.2 while the popular vote was Biden +4.45 was 12.65% more R than the country.

Virginia at Biden +10.1 was 5.65% more D than the country.

But what about Warner and the other congressional elections?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20

This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20
This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Expect to see a lot of this in 2018. The Big Lie is an all-consuming black hole that will continue growing if meaningfully unchecked.

2018?

The Republicans are planning to roll time backwards to 2018, and will FRAUD their way into winning all the elections they lost in "real" 2018!

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant! It certainly wasn't an embarrassing brain-fart or anything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1448000768045289473

Terry needs to run with this message. Run with the Trumpkin message. Abortion rights, voting rights, 1/6, audits, etc. Despite Trumpkin trying to 'moderate' himself, he has a lot of baggage that Terry can objectively go after.

I don't know if he has already, but if he hasn't, he also should be campaigning on what made him a relatively popular Governor in his previous term and how, with a Democratic House of Delegates and Senate this time, he can deliver on as much as Northam has, perhaps even more. It would be a good way to kill two birds with one stone in both the Governor's race and the down-ballot races.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While I am still confident in a McAuliffe victory, I have no idea what the s*** is going on with this race in every other respect. Like many things these days, it seems like a political Rorschach test. I just want it to be over already, and ideally I want McAuliffe to just be able to win by at least Clinton's 2016 margin at this point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Meanwhile, in things that matter far more to Virginia that Donald Trump:

The loudon story is getting worse, and there are rumblings NYT has an expose article in the works

https://mobile.twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1448760311750791169

If true, it's horrific and there needs to be consequences, but what does this have to do with Terry McAuliffe or Glenn Youngkin?

Somehow Republicans think this will somehow deliver the election to them. And they say we're the ones being desperate when it comes to this election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We did a very preliminary dial test of the "he'll do all of the things we want a governor to do" audio and not only did it activate Democratic voters, but did genuinely astonishing damage to Youngkin's support among independents (possibly exacerbated by the state having a large population of government-adjacent voters).

Potentially a huge gift that Trump just handed to the VA Dems at the most opportune time for them, I'm fully expecting to hear it all over television in the next week.

It's funny. For all the talk of this race being nationalized, that hasn't really happened from what I've been seeing...until now. That Trump audio plus the pledging allegiance to the "peaceful rally" flag rally are certainly nationalizing the race now. I don't know if we should say that a fork should necessarily be stuck in Youngkin's campaign because of all this (though that likely was true from the second he started running as a Republican) but it is a very painful headache that he is going to have to deal with in the final stretches of the campaign and as early voting is ramping up-possibly the worst timing imaginable.