GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Del Tachi]

I was thinking this was likely, and I don't think he'll be a particularly bad candidate in a B I D E N M I D T E R M where Trump, election objections and QAnon will be tertiary issues (at best)

[Del Tachi]

With Perdue teasing a run and Loeffler considering running I thought I would say this. To be honest, I don't get why people who lose elections run again in rematches. The voters don't want you to represent them, otherwise they would've voted you into office. Why don't election losers realize that? Are their egos that large?

Candidate quality is generally overrated as a factor, and Perdue/Loeffler can (accurately) chalk up their runoff loses to Trump's "soft boycott" of Georgia's elections (which won't be a factor in 2022 + the usual poor midterm environment for the incumbent party.)

[Del Tachi]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

[Del Tachi]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

No swing is "regardless of the environment."  GA's swing towards the Democrats in 2018 was less than the nation as a whole, for example. 

States with strong trends aren't immune from the national environment.  Most expect Kemp to best his 2018 performance versus Abrams.  How does this fit into your theory of Georgia as a perpetually D-swinging state?      

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1580213759640862721

Small swings that could all just be statistical noise.  We'll start seeing more Walker-friendly polls next week, I bet.

Walker was already a scandal-plagued candidate (as was Warnock, FWIW.)  The number of voters that could be swayed by new allegations was always going to be pretty small.

[Del Tachi]

Walker was already a scandal-plagued candidate (as was Warnock, FWIW.)

Personal use of campaign funds and allegations of domestic violence.  Both Warnock and Walker have the "scandal" tag in FiveThirtyEight's model. 

Interestingly enough, the abortion drama with Walker wouldn't be enough to meet 538's threshold on its own (since there's nothing illegal about paying for your girlfriend's abortion.) 

[Del Tachi]

Warnock should learn how to answer questions.  Typical politician. 

[Del Tachi]

The amount of copium ITT from our resident D hacks/bloomers is really something to see. 

[Del Tachi]

The amount of copium ITT from our resident D hacks/bloomers is really something to see. 

Walker did not win the debate, no matter how much you try to spin it.

The AJC disagrees with you. 

[Del Tachi]

Democrats were the ones who set expectations so low for Walker in the first place.  Massive own goal!

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Walker isn't going to do anything to turn off Republicans who voted for him, it will be a matter of apathy. Democrats are likely to win Nevada, which would give them control of the Senate without the Georgia runoff.

If the runoff doesn't determine control of the Senate, there's less incentive for Republicans to turn out to hold their noses and vote for Walker if they didn't like him but prefer a Republican over a Democrat.

This take is something only people with pundit brain buy.  People turnout for elections that are not pivotal in delivering majorities all the time.  Walker and Warnock are known commodities in a polarized state; turnout is going to be very high on both people. 

[Del Tachi]

Walker isn't going to do anything to turn off Republicans who voted for him, it will be a matter of apathy. Democrats are likely to win Nevada, which would give them control of the Senate without the Georgia runoff.

If the runoff doesn't determine control of the Senate, there's less incentive for Republicans to turn out to hold their noses and vote for Walker if they didn't like him but prefer a Republican over a Democrat.

This take is something only people with pundit brain buy.  People turnout for elections that are not pivotal in delivering majorities all the time.  Walker and Warnock are known commodities in a polarized state; turnout is going to be very high on both people. 

I'd sooner trust a pundit's predictions for Georgia than yours:

GA-SEN is the higher profile race.  I can believe Walker finishes behind Kemp, but only to the tune of 2-3%.  A >5% underperformance in such a highly polarized state would be a surprise.

My gut feeling is still that undecides break towards Walker and he clears 50% on election night. 

Seeing as my “prediction” aligned closely with the conventional wisdom, I’m not sure what point you’re even trying to make

“Ooooooooh Del Tachi doesn’t have a crystal ball” LOL

[Del Tachi]

*snip*

Thanks! Someone in the replies mentioned that election day (only) turnout on Nov. 8 was 7k in this county and that they do seem to be on pace on to match that, but how many early votes were cast for the runoff this time (in this county)?

According to https://georgiavotes.com/county.php, Camden County has cast 8,981 early votes in the runoff.  (This was 81.4% of their November 8 early vote, which works out to just over 11K.)

Overall, the early vote seems to be holding up for Warnock but there are some worrying numbers for Democrats here, especially among non-ATL sources of D votes where Warnock will need strong margins in a close race.  Places like Chatham (Savannah) and Bibb (Macon) counties, which are only at about 61-62% November early vote.  Fulton also looks pretty weak at 65%.