Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[Likely Voter]

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151222006029/en/FOX-Business-Network-Announces-Entry-Criteria-Republican

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[Likely Voter]

Current rankings
(bold = in the main debate, * = undercard debate)

US      
1   Trump   34.60
2   Cruz   18.60
3   Rubio   12.00
4   Carson   10.20
5   Bush   4.40
6   Christie   3.60

7   Fiorina*   2.60
8   Paul*   2.20
9   Kasich*   2.00
10   Huckabee*   1.60
11   Santorum*   0.50
12   Pataki*   0.25
   
IA      
1   Cruz   28.0
2   Trump   23.4
3   Rubio   13.0
4   Carson   11.4
5   Bush   5.6

6   Paul   3.6
7   Fiorina   2.4
8   Christie   2.0
9   Huckabee   1.8
10   Kasich   1.6
11   Santorum   0.6
12   Pataki   0.3
      
NH      
1   Trump   26.80
2   Rubio   12.20
3   Cruz   9.60
4   Bush   8.60
5   Christie   8.40

6   Kasich   7.60
7   Carson   7.00
8   Fiorina   4.20
9   Paul   2.60
10   Huckabee   0.80
11   Santorum   0.20
12   Pataki   0.00

[Likely Voter]

If, by some kind of Christmas miracle, Gilmore got 1% in a poll somewhere, then the undercard could end up with more candidates (assuming Pataki and Santorum also still has some poll with 1% somewhere)

[Likely Voter]

Polls I used...

US
Quinnipiac
FOX News
ABC News/Wash Post
Monmouth
NBC/WSJ

NH
Boston Herald
WBUR/MassINC
CNN/WMUR
Boston Globe/Suffolk
FOX News

IA
DMR/Bloomberg
Quinnipiac
FOX News
Loras College
Monmouth

 

[Likely Voter]

i guess so, i just cut/paste from spreadsheet. Maybe I should make it sharable on the google machine or something.

[Likely Voter]

Bush has extra incentive to attack Christie immediately and try and knock him from main debate.

Well if you look at the last national poll and the last 3 NH polls, Christie is ahead of Bush. So if anyone is pushing anyone out it the other way around. But for Bush to get pushed entirely out it will take Kasich, Paul or Fiorina to make some gains.

[Likely Voter]

Paul says no kiddie table for him...

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http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/rand-paul-i-wont-participate-in-undercard-debate#.ilYppJgkWB

Remember right before the CNN debate Paul said he had an announcement to make, and some in the media thought it was a drop out thing. It was probably that he wasn't going to go to the kiddie table. And maybe CNN got wind of this and changed their rules literally at the last minute because they didn't want Paul's demotion and refusal to become the story, and because they knew Paul is good for at least one dramatic debate moment.  

And maybe Paul thinks he can bully his way into the next debate too, but I don't think it will work this time.

[Likely Voter]

assuming ARG is included in NH polling Kasich now makes it into the main debate.



And if Paul is serious then we have gone from six main six kiddie to seven main and four kiddie in just one day. And if the two polls one poll where Pataki gets 1% rolls out without being replaced, The kiddie table could end up with just Santorum, Fiorina and Huckabee (assuming none of them drop out and Kasich holds on)

[Likely Voter]

we won't know until the last day, however they said live phone and last time they accepted TIPP which isn't exactly to top tier pollster either. As we go along I can post with and without ARG to see what difference it makes. As of now ARG is Kasich's favorite pollster.

[Likely Voter]

Current standings:

Donald J. Trump | 36.2% | 28.8% | 25.0%
Ted Cruz            | 18.8% | 30.2% | 11.4%
Marco Rubio       | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.8%
Ben Carson        | 9.2%   | 8.6%   | 6.2%
Jeb Bush            | 4.6%   | 4.6%   | 7.8%
Chris Christie     | 4.6%   | 2.4%   | 10.8%
John Kasich       | 2.0%   | 1.4%   | 8.4%
Carly Fiorina      | 2.6%   | 2.6%   | 4.0%
Rand Paul          | 2.4%   | 2.8%   | 3.8%
Mike Huckabee  | 1.6%   | 2.2%   | 0.6%
Rick Santorum  | 1.0%   | 0.4%   | 0.2%
George Pataki    | 0%     | 0.4%   | 0.2%

Gilmore is polling 0% everywhere.

This is not the list. Fox Biz is using only live phone polls. I believe you grabbed all the last five polls from Huffpollster which includes many non-live phone polls.

The current list is either the one posted by  Cris or me (if they are using ARG). 

[Likely Voter]

This is still current (assumes ARG NH is included)

[Likely Voter]

Well if Paul doesn't make it and refuses the kiddie table and if Pataki loses his one poll keeping him at the kiddie table, I suspect Fox B may ignore the ARG poll just to keep up the numbers at the kiddie table. Otherwise it will just be Fiorina, Huckabee and Santorum.   

[Likely Voter]

As I noted before, Kasich's position at the main debate is solely based on the ARG poll. If Fox B wanted a more balanced night (six main, four kiddie) they could just not use the ARG poll. Then again, Paul or Kasich could also do well in polls released before the 11th that might be harder to ignore.

At this point, the kiddie table is solely something they are doing to get more ratings, there is no reason to break up the debates. They could easily just come up with a criteria that limited the main stage to 8-10 candidates with the rest watching from home.

[Likely Voter]

A lot of the polls, especially the state polls are going to be pretty out of date by the cutoff time. It's possible that Paul has passed or tied Bush nationally and Huckabee has passed or tied Bush in IA, but there may not be enough polls before the 11th for that to matter even if true. It seems this time around Bush is the one benefiting from old polls.

[Likely Voter]

With no new polls, still no changes, but there are six more days for new polls. 

There is one bit of news. FoxB announced they will not show empty podiums if someone is still peeing. http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/01/fox-business-network-debates-podium-217380

[Likely Voter]

Do you know if there are other polls coming before the deadline?
I think Fox News will have National/IA/NH polls, but I'm not sure.

Haven't heard anything but there is bound to be some before deadline.

[Likely Voter]

This is still latest ranking, again assuming ARG NH poll I included



If ARG is not included then Kasich drops down to 6th in NH and is out of main debate. Obviously Pataki is also not going to kiddie debate

[Likely Voter]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

[Likely Voter]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

Perhaps Fiorina has some chance of passing Carson in the polls in NH. She's campaigning there hard now, and is getting some more folks at her events. I wonder if anybody times the release of polls, based on these little debate deadlines, to try to influence who is there. In this last 5 polls prior to the deadline metric, that gives one a fairly substantial impact. If 5 polls come out between now and the 11th, that basically leaves us with a clean slate for the moment.

I doubt we are going to see 5 polls in any state (or nationally) before the deadline. Fiorina may have passed Carson in NH but she has to get past Bush and Kasich too if she wants to get into 5th place, and that doesn't seem likely.

My bet is we see a couple of national polls and one state poll each for IA and NH before the deadline.

[Likely Voter]

If two new national polls came out and Paul average 1% more than Bush in both, then yes Paul would get into 6th place nationally and get on the main stage. Bush would still qualify with his IA position.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with Fox polls for US, IA and NH.

No real change except Bush and Kasich are now tied for 5th in NH. And as before Kasich's 5th place position relies entirely on inclusion of the latest ARG poll.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with Fox polls for US, IA and NH.

No real change except Bush and Kasich are now tied for 5th in NH. And as before Kasich's 5th place position relies entirely on inclusion of the latest ARG poll.

I have the same numbers. Just curious, and this may become moot if another national poll is released this weekend or early Monday, do you think there's any chance that FOX uses both the Monmouth and ABC/WP Polls as polls five and six in the National Average since they were both out in the field at the exact same time? Insignificant except that would get Pataki into the kiddie table debate.

What's the consensus on whether FOX is going to allow ARG? I know it's less known and not very well regarded, but seems like it checks all of FOX's boxes.

Fair point on the ABC and Monmouth poll and they might include both in the average if no new polls come out, however it makes no difference to the top 6 (except that Christie and Bush end up tied for 5th). As for Pataki, he dropped out so that is a moot point.

As for ARG, I have no idea. They included the IBD/TIPP poll last time so I think they could include ARG, althoug if they want to pack the kiddie table they may ignore it to push Kasich into the early debate.

[Likely Voter]

Paul has again said he will refuse to attend the kiddie table debate, but he didn't stop there. He has lots of grievances...

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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/rand-paul-undercard-debate-217523

[Likely Voter]

Glad FoxB didn't cave to Paul like CNN did. Although I suspect the early debate will be shorter than originally planned. When they set the criteria there was going to be 6 in each debate. Now it is 7 and 3.

[Likely Voter]

The next debate is in only 13 days. I wonder if they will go for fewer than 5 poll average to try to ensure as many of the polls as possible are from in between the debates. With just 11 candidates left, there is no need to do 'kiddie table' debates as they can simply set the criteria to something that will limit the debate to 9 or 10 (like you need 1%/2% nationally or IA or NH). I suspect the ratings for last night's kiddie table debate were not great so maybe Fox will just skip it this time.