Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[Maxwell]

Rand is higher than Jeb, Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie. This is absolutely bogus. 

Not true, but he is higher than Kasich, who will be in the main debate.

My point still stands. Rand should be in and Kasich out. It's the media wonks who want to stack the debate in favor of the establishment candidates (Trump, Jeb, Kasich, Christie) to attack Cruz.

Kasich didn't bump Rand out of the debate though. Rand is ahead of Kasich nationally, but not in New Hampshire. 

Still Rand should be in and Kasich out. Kasich did because of establishment wing of GOP friendly Fox.

Some at Fox have the same grudge the Establishment Wing of the GOP towards the Paul family. Don't say that it (the grudge) doesn't exist. Goes back to 2008.

Debate criteria is based on polling position you idiot.

[Broken System]

Rand is higher than Jeb, Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie. This is absolutely bogus.  

Not true, but he is higher than Kasich, who will be in the main debate.

My point still stands. Rand should be in and Kasich out. It's the media wonks who want to stack the debate in favor of the establishment candidates (Trump, Jeb, Kasich, Christie) to attack Cruz.

Kasich didn't bump Rand out of the debate though. Rand is ahead of Kasich nationally, but not in New Hampshire.  

Still Rand should be in and Kasich out. Kasich did because of establishment wing of GOP friendly Fox.

Some at Fox have the same grudge the Establishment Wing of the GOP towards the Paul family. Don't say that it (the grudge) doesn't exist. Goes back to 2008.

Debate criteria is based on polling position you idiot.

Shhhh, let him believe in polling magic. Believeeeeeee!

[This account no longer in use.]

Rand is higher than Jeb, Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie. This is absolutely bogus. 

Not true, but he is higher than Kasich, who will be in the main debate.

My point still stands. Rand should be in and Kasich out. It's the media wonks who want to stack the debate in favor of the establishment candidates (Trump, Jeb, Kasich, Christie) to attack Cruz.

Kasich didn't bump Rand out of the debate though. Rand is ahead of Kasich nationally, but not in New Hampshire. 

Still Rand should be in and Kasich out. Kasich did because of establishment wing of GOP friendly Fox.

Some at Fox have the same grudge the Establishment Wing of the GOP towards the Paul family. Don't say that it (the grudge) doesn't exist. Goes back to 2008.

Debate criteria is based on polling position you idiot.

You can just tell when somebody is watching Infowars and reading Stormfront.

[Cruzcrew]

If the DMR poll were counted, Rand and bush would be tied for fifth at 4.4% in Iowa.

[Senator Cris]

The criteria is "polls released by 11th January", not "polls conducted by 11th January". Paul didn't make the criteria and so is out. Stop.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Rand is higher than Jeb, Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie. This is absolutely bogus. 

Not true, but he is higher than Kasich, who will be in the main debate.

My point still stands. Rand should be in and Kasich out. It's the media wonks who want to stack the debate in favor of the establishment candidates (Trump, Jeb, Kasich, Christie) to attack Cruz.

Kasich didn't bump Rand out of the debate though. Rand is ahead of Kasich nationally, but not in New Hampshire. 

Still Rand should be in and Kasich out. Kasich did because of establishment wing of GOP friendly Fox.

Some at Fox have the same grudge the Establishment Wing of the GOP towards the Paul family. Don't say that it (the grudge) doesn't exist. Goes back to 2008.

Debate criteria is based on polling position you idiot.

You can just tell when somebody is watching Infowars and reading Stormfront.

I'm using legitimate polling data. The DMR poll should count because it met the fox business deadline.

Stormfront is a racist rag. I don't read it. Infowars is a legitimate alternative media source.

[Panda Express]

Either way, this is just another example of how far outside the overton window I am,

Overton? WTF is that? This is American politics, not Transformers. Don't be a nerd.

[Maxwell]

lol Reince Preibus sucks at his job.

[ElectionsGuy]

Either way, this is just another example of how far outside the overton window I am,

Overton? WTF is that? This is American politics, not Transformers. Don't be a nerd.

Telling a libertarian not to be a nerd is like telling a cat not to sleep.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Marco just made a big tactical error going after Christie like that. But luckily Christie let up and didn't counterattack nearly as hard as he could have.

[gf20202]

Does anybody know what polls fox biz ended up using in each category? Did they ever release that?

It would be helpful if anyone had that info because I am sure the criteria will be similar for the next debate on FOX in less than two weeks. Mainly interested in ARG and IBD-TIPP and stuff like Loras and if got excluded or not.

[gf20202]

Actually found answer. ARG, IBD, and Loras all made it in. They used six polls in some cases where there was overlap AND only used one poll from any one poll.

---

The six* polls used in the national average were conducted by the following
organizations: Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP, FOX News, CNN/ORC, Quinnipiac
University, ABC News/Washington Post, and Monmouth University.  All were conducted within the last month (the earliest were completed December 13.)  *Six were used rather than five because the earliest two polls were done concurrently.

The six* polls used in the Iowa average were conducted by the following organizations: American Research Group, Quinnipiac University, FOX News, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, Loras College, and The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg.  *Six were used rather than five because the earliest two polls were done concurrently.

The five polls used in the New Hampshire average were conducted by the following organizations:  Monmouth University, American Research Group, FOX News, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, and Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald.

With respect to our criteria for which polls were used to determine inclusion …

They are the most recent national and state polls from non-partisan, nationally-recognized organizations using standard methodological techniques.  Recency was determined by actual interview dates (not release date).

· We only used the most recent results from a particular survey organization so that no single pollster dominates the calculation of averages.

· They used live interviewers, included both landlines and cellphones, and employed either random digit-dial or registration-based sampling methodologies.  No online or automated (IVR) polls were used.

[gf20202]

And because I am an obsessive about this. If Fox uses the exact same criteria, these are the polls in play currently.

From most recent to least recent:
National: NBC/WSJ, CBS/NY Times, IBD-TIPP, FOX, CNN
IA: DMR, ARG, Q, FOX, NBC/WSJ
NH: Mon, ARG, FOX, NBC/WSJ, BH

Where everything lies:
-We are still not sure if there is an undercard. If there is, Santo wouldn't currently qualify since he doesn't have a 1 in any of those national polls.
-Both Fiorina and Huck have little chance of making it back to big table unless drastically different polling is released.
-Kasich is almost a lock to make it since Monmouth and ARG have him so high in New Hampshire.
-The biggest drama will be if Paul qualifies. Currently, he is tied with Bush for fifth in Iowa but that will most likely change just from having new polls in the next ten days. Paul does better than Bush in the two most recent polls there so he's got a good chance.

[Likely Voter]

The next debate is in only 13 days. I wonder if they will go for fewer than 5 poll average to try to ensure as many of the polls as possible are from in between the debates. With just 11 candidates left, there is no need to do 'kiddie table' debates as they can simply set the criteria to something that will limit the debate to 9 or 10 (like you need 1%/2% nationally or IA or NH). I suspect the ratings for last night's kiddie table debate were not great so maybe Fox will just skip it this time.

[gf20202]

The next debate is in only 13 days. I wonder if they will go for fewer than 5 poll average to try to ensure as many of the polls as possible are from in between the debates. With just 11 candidates left, there is no need to do 'kiddie table' debates as they can simply set the criteria to something that will limit the debate to 9 or 10 (like you need 1%/2% nationally or IA or NH). I suspect the ratings for last night's kiddie table debate were not great so maybe Fox will just skip it this time.

Undercard last time did about two million viewers on Fox Business, which is about what Special Report does on FOX News proper with a lot more distribution.  I bet they do have another one, excluding Huckabee, Santorum and Fiorina and possibly Paul again (if he doesn't make the main debate stage) right before voting begins would be a bad look for the network. (Let ABC News take the hit and further stoke the outrage machine.) Plus, it makes the whole day of coverage seem like an event.

DMR is releasing another poll in Iowa, but it will be too late to include it for the debate. Paul vs Bush for fifth place comes down to anyone polling released in the next week. Can't imagine there will be that much.

[gf20202]

Fox still hasn't announced criteria for next Thursday as far as I've seen, but assuming it's the same...

Loras poll in Iowa would drop the most recent NBC poll and put Paul back out of the top five there by .8. Bush is a 4.6 and Paul is at 3.8.

If there is an undercard, Santoroum would be in because he drew a 1 in the most recent Monmouth poll.

[Likely Voter]

It's weird they haven't announced criteria. I think they just might skip that step and announce invites on Monday or Tuesday.  Also according to the TV schedule there is no undercard slated. It just has Fox's regular programming up to 9pm debate.