Alberta Election 2019

[mileslunn]

Since the Alberta election must be held no later than May 31, 2019, I am now opening the topic.  At this point the UCP looks heavily favoured, but as we are seeing with the Ontario election, I think it would be a bit premature to call it.  My thoughts on the four parties with seats are as follows obviously subject to change.

UCP: Definitely the heavy favourites.  Should probably sweep most of the ridings outside of the two main cities with perhaps the exception of the two Lethbridge ridings and maybe a few in the Capital region.  Well ahead in Calgary and if they can hold that, should form the next government.  Edmonton competitive, but I tend to think its really more a question if they can win any seats there or do they get shut out again.  I think the big dangers is Alberta is not nearly as right wing as it was 20 years ago so things like bringing back the Flat Tax, more funding for private schools could scare away some moderate voters who are unhappy with the NDP but feel the UCP is going too far.  Nonetheless Harper got 59.5% in 2015 and while I doubt the UCP will get quite that high, I suspect at least 80% of those who voted Tory federally in 2015 will also vote UCP and that puts them at 48% so still enough to win albeit probably not a landslide.

NDP: Despite what some say, I don't think the NDP is totally out of it.  In terms of the popular vote, I am almost positive they will lose that, but due to voter efficiency I think there is a very narrow path to a majority.  UCP will likely run up the margins in rural ridings without any small city topping 70 even 80% in some whereas unlike 2015 I don't think the NDP will have any blowouts not even in Edmonton.  Their path to power is basically to unite progressives + Red Tories which would mean sweeping Edmonton, capital region, being competitive in Calgary, and winning many smaller cities like Lethbridge, Red Deer etc.  The pipeline also should help too a bit.  So while I think the NDP is likely headed for opposition, I think it is highly likely they will get over 20 seats and even 30 seats I think is very realistic.  Otherwise I don't believe they are in as bad a shape as some claim they are.

Alberta Party: They won't win many if any seats at all, but if things tighten up could play kingmaker.  If they mostly take away soft NDP votes, then probably a UCP landslide, but if they pull away many Red Tories from the former Progressive Conservatives they could create an opening for the NDP to win.  Otherwise if they get 15% and that 15% is mostly Red Tories, the UCP will only get in the 40s and if the NDP can unite the 35-40% of Albertans on the political left this could allow the NDP to narrowly slip in.  If they take evenly from both won't matter then.

Liberals: Along with the Alberta Party, they are battling for the centrist vote, but I think the Alberta Party is in better shape to win it so in all likelihood the Liberals will become like what they are in neighbouring Saskatchewan, i.e. irrelevant.

[mileslunn]

Re: the Alberta Party - how much space is there really in the "reasonable center" between Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney?  I presume it'll come more from the "PC" side - but I suspect it'll be a pretty small group. 

Unlike in BC (or perhaps in the future Ontario) the NDP may have a decent chance even if the right is united, it's really hard to see the Alberta NDP win against a (more or less) united right.

Agreed it is pretty tough to win against a united right in Alberta, I am more just leaving all options open as we've seen enough surprises.  As for BC, definitely the NDP can win against a united right, but far from certain.  Ontario will be interesting since if the PCs stay clearly on the right like they are under Ford, were under Harris, and Hudak, I think they will probably lose more often than win.  But if they move back to their traditional Red Tory spot, then I think they will win most of the time.  BC Liberals maybe on the right and similar in many ways to the Ontario PCs, but the BC Liberals are a much bigger tent and don't tend to be quite as ideological.  Ontario PCs right now are more like the UCP than BC Liberals and if you have a divided left you can get away with that, but not a united left, whereas Alberta is more conservative than Ontario so people who are unelectable elsewhere can win there.

That is the big reason Kenney choose to run provincially rather than federally as he probably figured he couldn't beat Trudeau, whereas he could win in his home province.

[mileslunn]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

[mileslunn]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

[mileslunn]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title) Andrea Horwath....

The Rachel Notley situation is unique because it was such a 'bonus' for the NDP to win the election, I'd find it hard to believe all that many New Democrats in Alberta would force her out if the NDP lost in 2019.  Is there a logical successor to her?

Given that Brian Mason in one article, for instance, admitted that it's harder to be in government than in opposition, I can imagine Notley would relish the opportunity of the tables being turned against Jason Kenney (though, of course, she'd prefer to beat him in 2019.)

That's the big question the NDP would have to face, because I'd say the general consensus would be that there isn't a go-to logical successor to her. In thinking about the public profile and rough public perception of the members of the NDP caucus, the following would be my list (in no particular order) of potential NDP leadership contenders were Notley to step down:

• David Eggen (Edmonton-Calder): Minister of Education, 2014 leadership candidate, and 3rd-longest serving caucus member after Mason and Notley
• Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora): Deputy Premier and Minister of Health, former Edmonton Public School Trustee
• Deron Bilous (Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview): Minister of Economic Development and Trade, and along with Eggen, one of the two potential candidates who was an NDP MLA prior to 2015
• Joe Ceci (Calgary-Fort): Minister of Finance (and therefore senior Calgary caucus member), and former Calgary City Councillor
• Ricardo Miranda (Calgary-Cross): Minister of Culture and Tourism
• Shannon Phillips (Lethbridge-West): Minister of Environment, and considered (though with little substantive evidence) to be the most left-wing cabinet minister
• Danielle Larivee (Lesser Slave Lake): Minister of Children's Services and Status of Women

In addition to those above, I could also see either Rod Loyola (MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie) or Gil McGowan (President of the Alberta Federation of Labour) running as an organized labour-oriented candidate.

Off course those ones have to hold their seats.  I suspect UCP will pick up Calgary-Cross and Lesser Slave Lake unless they lose the election in which Notley stays on for sure.  Sarah Hoffman would be a huge turnoff to swing voters so the party choosing her would be making a big mistake.  In fairness actually Notley is probably the best they have so I could see them keeping her but depends on how they do.  If they get say 30 seats, she probably has a strong argument to stay on, but if they drop to only 10 seats it will be a much tougher one. 

[mileslunn]

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣

Sounds like the Libertarian one.  Here some policy proposals we just might see from him.

1.  Eliminate the provincial income tax and replace with a 10% PST.
2.  Entrench property rights in the Alberta constitution
3.  Eliminate as many environmental laws as possible.
4.  Cut off funding to all universities and colleges that don't fully allow free speech, that includes letting alt right speakers speak on campus
5.  Bring in school vouchers and allow home schooling and private schools to be fully tax deductible against PST and property taxes.
6.  End all restrictions on private health care and allow full market competition
7.  Withdraw from CPP and instead let the private sector take over here.
8.  Make all purchases of private health insurance fully tax deductible
9.  Bring in right to work laws.
10.  Make the right to keep and bear arms entrenched in law and opposed all restrictions on law abiding people owning firearms.

These would be a wet dream for people who feel the UCP is not libertarian enough, but somehow doubt they would be popular even in Alberta.

Joking aside, I suspect his party will go the same way the Trilium Party did in the last Ontario election and BC Conservative party in the last BC election, i.e nowhere.

[mileslunn]

How many here think the NDP still could win and if so how would they do it both in terms of votes and geography.  I don't think they can win the popular vote, but I still could see them winning a narrow majority as their vote is more efficient than the UCP (UCP will likely get over 70% and in some cases 80% in much of rural Alberta), while low 60s is the highest I can see the NDP getting (probably in Notley's own riding) and in fact outside central Edmonton I don't see them getting over 50% in many ridings.

How it would happen is a combination of bozo remarks like in 2012 with the Wildrose party as well as Kenney's austerity plans scare off a lot of middle of the road voters, so the UCP only gets around 43-45%, which is very plausible.  Youth turnout is quite high and NDP wins big there while the Alberta Party gets around 15% of the popular vote and most of that comes at the expense of the UCP, not NDP with mostly former PC supporters who find the UCP too right wing going to the Alberta Party.  They only win one of two seats, but create the splits for the NDP.  Progressives unite behind the NDP, so they get close to 40% (note last federal election, 40% voted for centre-left parties, so if they all unite behind the NDP, they get around 40%).  Seatwise, the NDP not only sweeps Edmonton, but wins almost all seats in the Capital Region.  In Calgary, Alberta Party gets around 20% allowing the NDP to sweep all the inner ridings with the UCP only winning along the periphery thus it is closer but NDP still wins just over half the seats in Calgary.  In the rest of Alberta, NDP wins smaller centres like Lethbridge and Red Deer. 

Admittedly this is a long shot, but if the stars line up the NDP does have a path to majority albeit a very narrow one.  Nonetheless Trump in the US had a similarly narrow path to victory so as long as the path remains open they still can win.  That being said I think there is about an 80% chance UCP wins a majority next May and Jason Kenney becomes the next premier, but I think there is a 20% chance of either another NDP majority or a hung parliament.  Off course UCP could do better than expected and sweep Calgary, rest of Alberta and pick up much of suburban Edmonton winning around 65 seats and high 50s in the popular vote while NDP falls to mid 20s.  That would be the opposite extreme which is unlikely but possible.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%

The results amongst Millennials in particular in that poll are giving me flashbacks to the Calgary Mayoral election.

Agreed on millennials they mess up a lot, but even if millennials were say to vote NDP by a 20 point margin UCP would still be ahead albeit by a much smaller margin.  To be fair Mainstreet did correctly call the last Ontario election and asides from Calgary municipal election track record is pretty good.  They also overestimated the NDP in 2015 like most pollsters although still correctly predicted the winner.

[mileslunn]

Two more polls out, one from Abacus and one from Mainstreet.  Both show UCP with a healthy lead although seems UCP lead is more they are successfully uniting the conservative vote and less so about any enthusiasm for Jason Kenney although his approval ratings are okay.  Rachel Notley's are not great, but marginally better than Christy Clark, Brian Gallant, Philippe Couillard, and Stephen Harper, while significantly better than Kathleen Wynne and Greg Selinger so its tough to win with her approval ratings but not impossible.  Her biggest challenge is uniting the progressive vote won't be sufficient; she needs to pull away some traditional conservative voters to win and that will be tough.

Abacus - Online

UCP 48%
NDP 33%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 8%

Mainstreet Research - IVR

UCP 54.3%
NDP 29.1%
Alberta Party 5.5%
Liberals 5.2%

If Mainstreet were correct, you would see a UCP landslide, likely over 60 seats and possibly even over 70 seats while NDP would struggle to reach 20 seats.  If Abacus are correct, then solid UCP win, but probably 55-60 seats, while NDP still forms a strong opposition, probably around 25-30 seats.  Alberta Party will likely hold Greg Clark's riding and maybe Stephen Mandel will win, but cannot see them winning anything else.  I suspect the Liberals unless things change will get shut out with Calgary-Mountainview probably flipping to the NDP, maybe UCP if they win a landslide.  Still a little over 7 months to go so a lot can change, but the NDP definitely has a steep hill to climb and the UCP is without question the favourite at this point.

[mileslunn]

NDP plans a throne speech on March 18th so late April would be the earliest they could realistically call an election.  Some thought they might go earlier as they want to go when the students are still in school since they are strongest amongst youngest voters while in the winter before snowbirds return as UCP has big lead amongst them.  My guess is voting day will be May 31st which is the latest date possible.  Notley really needs a pipeline to go through to have much chance so they longer they wait the better the chances get.  Also more time to sprinkle election goodies as well as also more time for the UCP to have bozo eruptions and scare away moderate voters.  Still not sure timing will make a huge difference although UCP seems very anxious for an election.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.

It will definitely be an interesting election. I feel like this is the most confident a government down by 25% has been going into an election in a long time haha.

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.

I think their reasons are not unwarranted.  While Notley's approval ratings are not great, they are no worse than Christy Clark or Stephen McNeil's were in 2017 who both won the most seats although Christy Clark got defeated on a confidence vote.  I think the feeling rightly or wrongly is Albertans vote conservative more out of habit than anything else, but usually in the past the PCs were fairly moderate whereas UCP is a lot more ideologically driven and that once their policies come out many will go elsewhere. 

Certainly on policy issues, most polls I've seen suggests the median Alberta voter falls about midway between the NDP and UCP.  Most want a balanced budget, less bureaucracy, reduced wages for upper paid civil servants, middle class tax cut, at the same time most support abolishing the flat tax (which UCP plans to bring back), oppose frontline service cuts, and support raising the minimum wage even if maybe not to $15/hour so Albertans on the issues aren't as right wing as the stereotypes paint them.  So I agree an NDP win is unlikely, but when you look below the surface, I don't think it is impossible.  Wynne at this point was only 10 points behind, but high dissatisfaction with her made me think she faced more difficult odds than Notley does and once the campaign got under way her numbers fell.

[mileslunn]

Calgary has a lot of people in the oil industry and affected by that a lot thus why more conservative while Edmonton has more civil servants.  While not quite as noticeable, generally Conservatives and Saskatchewan Party do better in Saskatoon than Regina while in BC generally the right does even worse in the Greater Victoria area than Greater Vancouver area.  The one that bucks this is Quebec as Quebec City is actually fairly conservative even compared to many rural parts of the province while Montreal is off course fairly progressive.

As for Austin vs. Houston comparisons, I think those are still valid as suburbs around Austin are starting to go Democrat whereas in Houston suburbs for the most part, especially northern ones still GOP.  Likewise in Houston, it is 2/3 non-white thus why Democrats win the city proper and inner suburbs, amongst whites in Houston, I still suspect most vote GOP whereas I suspect in Austin Democrats even win the white vote.

[mileslunn]

Alberta Party leader, Stephen Mandel, and several other Alberta Party candidates may have filed their nomination papers too late with Elections Alberta and may be disqualified from running.

This is the situation at the moment (disqualified from running) however, Mandel is appealing claiming the information he was given was unclear as it didn't specify what the starting date was (they had four months after that date to file) and that given the severity of the penalty, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

The party would still be able to run, but with the leader in question no doubt this will hurt what little chances they had.  What will be interesting is whom does the Alberta Party hurt more.  Are they most likely their membership former Red Tories from the Alberta PCs thus hurting the UCP more or are they more centrist New Democrats who normally vote Liberal but voted NDP in 2015.  In many ways the party is a centrist option for those who don't like the NDP, but find the UCP too right wing to park their votes.

[mileslunn]

For some reason it baffles me that there's a riding in Canada with a whopping 86% minority electorate. Or that there are 8 districts where they are a majority!

This is just in Alberta, too.

But Canada I believe has a slightly higher percentage of non-white people than the U.S. does (this is including First Nations, etc., who strictly speaking are not included in "Visible Minorities") and way more of course than anywhere in Europe. As a result, it's not surprising that there are many ridings that are majority VM/non-white. The UK has a much lower non-white population (around 13% in the UK vs. 27% in Canada) but also has a number of overwhelmingly non-white constituencies.

Actually US depends on definition, if you count all Hispanics as non-white, US has a lower white population than Canada, but if you include Hispanics who are white, then I believe that is correct.  To be fair most Hispanics are mixed race to some degree and Hispanic is more heritage as opposed to any particular race despite the stereotypical image, one can be blonde hair and blue eyed Hispanic and likewise Black Hispanic.

As for Europe exactly, there are UK constituencies that are over 80% non-white so makes sense you would see some in Canada.  I imagine in France and Germany there are majority non-white constituencies and Netherlands, Sweden, and Belgium probably would if they divided theirs into constituencies of 100,000 people. 

[mileslunn]

Hispanics are considered visible minorities on the Canadian Census (if they select Latin American).

True enough, although Latin American really can be any race as it is a melting pot of people from different parts of the world, only reason it is a separate category is most from that region tend to be mixed race.  Interestingly enough the US classifies people of Middle Eastern and North African ancestry as white whereas in Canada they are classified as visible minority.  If you were to use the US definition of white, countries like France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, and Sweden would probably be over 95% white while using the Canadian definition all of them are probably over 10% maybe as high as 15% non-white.  UK it wouldn't make as much of a difference as most non-whites there are South Asians or Black and Canada only a minor difference as Arabs and West Asians put together are about 1.5% of the population.

[mileslunn]

Kenney promises to drop corporate tax rates from 12% to 8%.  While it may not be the most pertinent issue not sure this is a huge vote getter.  Trickle down economics was very in vogue in the 80s and 90s but has sort of fallen out so while not your Hudak moment of firing 100,000 civil servants, I cannot help but think the NDP will probably use this against him and on this policy more will probably side with the NDP.  A cut to 10% or 11% would have faced some opposition, but not as much as this.  I think regardless of what one's views are on economics, the idea of cutting taxes for corporations and the rich and expecting more money is not a very popular policy and in fact Notley's scrapping the flat tax and raising corporate taxes by 2% had over 60% support in 2015 so good or bad idea, I cannot see this helping the UCP politically.  Although probably not fatal on its own, but if the numbers in his platform don't add up or the NDP can get several economists to blow it apart, I think things could get a lot more competitive.  Not sure if it will be enough for the NDP to win, but at least it creates an opening even if very narrow.

[mileslunn]

I always expected the election to be held on May 31st anyways.  With the NDP's weak poll numbers better to wait and hope something trips Kenney up.  As for Brian Jean will be interesting what he announces too.  On the health care bill, will be interesting the details but the fact doing it now does kind of smack of desperation.  While privatizing health care is very unpopular, I don't think allowing private delivery or even private payment for diagnostic services is as controversial as it was 20 years ago.  Many still oppose it, but the polls I've seen show the public is more split on it rather than against it.  That being said if NDP has concluded they are going to lose, this would be very popular amongst their base so might help firm up their core support so they at least form a strong opposition.

[mileslunn]

Ipsos out with numbers from starting line and UCP well in front as expected but not an insurmountable lead.

UCP 53%
NDP 35%
Alberta Party 7%
Liberals 7%

[mileslunn]

ThinkHQInc poll
https://twitter.com/CTVMarkVillani/status/1108342170505887745


The NDP has done better with ThinkHQ polls than with Mainstreet Research polls, so, I don't know what to make of that.

However, it does seem possible the NDP could end up with a (slightly) higher share of the vote than they received in 2015.  Of course, were that to happen, they'd almost certainly still be defeated.

The main difference between this survey and the recent Ipsos survey is Edmonton.  The Ipsos survey had the NDP ahead 44-43%.  I believe that was for just the city of Edmonton.  This survey has the NDP ahead 52-34% for the entire Edmonton metropolitan area.  The NDP won all the Edmonton suburbs in 2015, but mostly by much tighter margins than the ridings in the city of Edmonton.  The only suburban Edmonton ridings where the NDP dominated in 2015 were the older suburbs of Sherwood Park and St. Albert (even though Sherwood Park is technically a 'hamlet' and not a city.)

UCP lead in Calgary is probably biggest barrier to the NDP as they need to win there or be competitive there to form government.  It does though seem no matter which poll you look at most 2015 NDP voters are either in the NDP or undecided column.   Their big problem is vast majority who voted PC or Wildrose in 2015 favour UCP so it woud be 52% to 41% if people voted the same as 2015 and UCP winning a pretty big majority, around 65 seats while NDP sweeps Edmonton but wins only a few outside.  Notley really needs to portray Kenney as too right wing and hope enough red Tories from the PCs switch over, but my guess is if they do switch it will be to the Alberta Party not NDP.  So she needs the Alberta Party to get in at least mid teens and all their gains from the UCP, none from NDP.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet will have a poll out tomorrow morning, 10 PM (Alberta time) for subscribers only.  Hints are it will be a big shocker although with the recent news a much closer race or even tied wouldn't totally shock me.  Solid NDP lead would though.

[mileslunn]

As a Calgarian, the simplest way I can explain it is that Calgarians are big-C Conservative, but when party identity is taken out of the equation, Calgarians tend to vote in a more centrist/progressive way. Our 2 mayors prior to Nenshi, at least, were strongly Liberal

I think Calgarians are also regionalist too so they don't mind bigger government if closer to home, but the further away it gets the more they think it will be hostile to them.  Otherwise most progressive at municipal, somewhere in between provincially, while most conservative at federal level.

[mileslunn]

The UCP lead over the NDP continues to narrow and the NDP continues to gain ground in Edmonton and Calgary...

What'd be interesting is if the NDP actually surpasses its 2015 Calgary performance (even though it's Kenney's  backyard)

That is almost certain to happen. In 2015 the NDP won Calgary 35% to 33% for the PCs and 26% for Wildrose. In a pure two-way race its almost certain that the NDP will get over 40% in Calgary...I think that Calgary is moving away from its past as a conservative monolith and will start to have a voting pattern more like Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg

I think the south end of Calgary where Kenney and Harper hail from still remains quite conservative, but that area has always been an anomaly in urban Canada.  However the other parts of the city are more mixed bag.  Central part has a lot of millennials and renters so should be good for the NDP.  Eastern and Northern parts are very ethnically diverse so depends on who can appeal most here while Western part is fairly affluent thus should favour UCP, but also percentage with post-secondary degrees well above national average so more your traditional Progressive Conservatives as opposed to right wing populists.  In the next week hopefully some other public polls come out just as I like to do a comparison.

Nevertheless I always felt things would tighten up and unlike some I never thought this was in the bag.  UCP favoured, yes, but certain win no.

[mileslunn]

I don't have access to the Mainstreet daily tracking polls, but it seems like the Alberta and Liberal parties are at risk of getting crushed in a two horse race.

I think that was always a given when things are as polarized as they are.  If you want to get rid of Notley, UCP is your best bet.  If you want to stop Kenney from becoming premier, NDP is your best bet.