Alberta Election 2019

[beesley]

If the Alberta Party were to break through and get say, 5 seats, which would they be? I assume the seats held by Clark and Fraser would be two, plus Edmonton-McClung, but where else do they have any chance.

I presume if the Liberals were to get 5 seats it would be the 5 they had prior to 2015.

[beesley]

If the Alberta Party were to break through and get say, 5 seats, which would they be? I assume the seats held by Clark and Fraser would be two, plus Edmonton-McClung, but where else do they have any chance?

I presume if the Liberals were to get 5 seats it would be the 5 they had prior to 2015.

This is a bit of a crapshoot, but some ABP potentials:

• Calgary-Mountain View: Angela Kokott (pretty well-known former broadcaster) is the candidate
• Peace River: Dakota House (indigenous actor, known for his role on CBC's North of 60) is the candidate in this northern, 27% indigenous riding
• Calgary-McCall
• Calgary-East
• Calgary-Currie
• Edmonton-Castle Downs
• Edmonton-Riverview
• Edmonton-Ellerslie

The latter six are ridings where the ABP candidates have been quite active and have been featured a fair bit in social media from the central party. As anecdotal as this is, I drove through parts of McCall and East yesterday and the ABP candidates were holding their own in the private property lawn sign game. Given the present state of the race I don't necessarily think any of them will win, but in the event of a very random ABP breakthrough, the candidates in these ridings are the sort who I think could win.


Regarding the Liberals, it would be very unlikely that they would hold the same 5-seat combination that they did in 2015. Calgary-Mountain View, and possibly Calgary-McCall (but even that's an outside shot) would be the only seats of those 5 that I could see them holding. Of the others, Edmonton-City Centre doesn't even have a Liberal candidate. Edmonton-West Henday (rough successor to Meadowlark) is too much of an NDP-UCP race, and the Liberals really only won that in 2012 (barely) because their Leader was the candidate there. And Calgary-Buffalo has been made into the closest thing to an NDP stronghold in Calgary, and are running their finance minister there.

As sad as it is, I honestly can't think of any Liberal candidates who have a high enough profile to win, aside from Khan himself.

I don't think any of those you mentioned are likely to go AP. I'm hoping that Stephen Mandel can pull it off, but if he does it will be him and Clark.
I suspect David Khan is the only candidate who could win, and even then it's against the current Buffalo MLA. In Buffalo itself I suspect some Liberals will rally behind Joe Ceci.

[beesley]

Seems to be a gradual rise in Alberta Party support at the expense of the UCP and Liberals.

[beesley]

My final prediction is as follows, let's see what happens.

Gonna give the Alberta Party a second seat on a whim.

UCP: 57 - 8 in Edmonton (South, South West, St Albert, Morinville, Strathcona-SP, Sherwood Park, Leduc-Beaumont, Spruce Grove) and all seats lost not listed below.  
NDP: 27 - 19 in Edmonton (all except McClung and the above 8 ) ; 6 in Calgary (Buffalo, Varsity, Currie, Klein, Mountain View, North) ; 2 in the rest (two Lethbridge seats.)
AP: 2 - Mandel comes up the middle in McClung and wins by 1/2%, Clark is re-elected.
ALP: 0 - Khan loses Mountain View.
FCP: 0 - Fildebrandt loses significantly in Chestermere.

[beesley]

Biggest surprises for me? Banff-Kananaskis and Lethbridge West, as well as how badly David Khan did. My prediction wasn't too bad, although I underestimated how inefficient the AP vote was.

[beesley]

Kenney has asked the Lt. Gov. to swear him in on April 30th. He'll then convene a spring session of the legislature during the third week of May.

I wonder who will be in cabinet? Ric McIver, Jason Nixon and Tany Yao spring to mind.

[beesley]

I know federal and provincial politics are quite different in Canada, but I have to wonder if the results in Calgary could potentially bode well for the Liberals in Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview.  The Alberta NDP ran very strong in Calgary-McCall, which seems to overlap with the federal Calgary Skyview riding.

Generally the federal Conservatives' total should be higher than the provincial total, but regardless, I can't see the Liberals getting near the NDP total.

I would argue the Liberals' best shot for a hold is Edmonton Centre.

[beesley]

I know federal and provincial politics are quite different in Canada, but I have to wonder if the results in Calgary could potentially bode well for the Liberals in Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview.  The Alberta NDP ran very strong in Calgary-McCall, which seems to overlap with the federal Calgary Skyview riding.

Generally the federal Conservatives' total should be higher than the provincial total, but regardless, I can't see the Liberals getting near the NDP total.

I would argue the Liberals' best shot for a hold is Edmonton Centre.

Even if Calgary Centre falls, Calgary Skyview seems far more likely to hold to the LPC. I'm not trying to translate Alberta NDP results into LPC results of course. However, the provincial Calgary-McCall, where the Alberta NDP won a majority and their best results in the city, overlaps with the federal Calgary Skyview riding. That was the Liberal's best riding in Calgary and in all of Alberta by margin. I think the federal NDP is too strong in Edmonton for the Liberals to have anything close to reliable or safe now.

It depends how you look at it, I think the Conservatives have a high chance of sweeping Alberta so whether Calgary or Edmonton swings more won't affect the total. Demographically Skyview and Mill Woods may have similar results which are different to Calgary and Edmonton Centre. Interestingly although Edmonton is definitely the more left city, EPP saw Calgary as better for the Liberals last time, although it seems most of us have put Centre as a Conservative gain and the others TCTC. The Liberals may have denied the NDP a second seat last time so there's clearly a lot of crossover. As is often the case with Canada, just wait and see what happens.

[beesley]

I would move McCall and Falconridge  up, as I think it makes more sense to have the Skyview ranch area in McCall.

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

I'm inclined to agree with you about McCall and Falconridge - I think those changes make sense, however in a good year for the NDP, the current version might give three Calgary ridings (McCall, Falconridge, and perhaps North East, although perhaps the margin in North East is too large for that to make a difference), while in a bad year for the NDP, it only yields one NDP riding (McCall). Given the closeness of Falconridge currently, it probably typically would give two ridings. Moving McCall and Falconridge North probably gives two solid NDP ridings, regardless of how well the NDP performs, reducing NDP vote efficiency in a good year. Some on the left might accuse such riding boundaries of packing. All that said, I think that those changes make sense.

That whole North-Eastern area was split across McCall and Falconridge prior to the redistribution, so I've remapped the poll results with the old boundaries overlaid as the riding boundary layer.



And to complete the set of poll results with different boundaries overlaid, here are Calgary and Edmonton with the current federal riding boundaries.

Calgary:



Edmonton:



By the way, I realised that there was a slight error in the maps I posted last night - mapping the polygons didn't map the holes within the polygon, so it over-plotted polls 10 and 11 in Banff-Kananaskis. I've edited the post above to correct the map accordingly. My humble and sincere apologies for this error - I've been mapping in R for a while, but only very basic stuff, I'm just starting to learn a few of the slightly more complex functions and techniques (I learnt a few functions I haven't used before creating these maps over the past couple of days).

Great work, was interested to see this!

Banff looked odd but then I suppose out of the 'rural' federal ridings, only Fort McMurray-Cold Lake and Lethbridge were worse for the CPC - and it showed in the latter this time round, with Fort McMurray having it's own resource-driven outcome. If I'm not mistaken the UCP parts of Banff-Kananaskis are in other federal ridings.

[beesley]

If anyone's interested I'm calculating a scenario with three member districts.

Greg Clark still loses.

[beesley]

Don't know if there is one but I'd be interested to see the results for 2019 on the 2015 boundaries (mostly to see Calgary)

[beesley]

Don't know if there is one but I'd be interested to see the results for 2019 on the 2015 boundaries (mostly to see Calgary)

That one's on the previous page (it's listed as 2010 boundaries, as that was when the redistribution occurred, this election was on the 2017 boundaries). It's easy enough to do, though, if you want other areas. I've edited my previous post to include Edmonton on 2010 boundaries.

I've also completed maps for 2015, both "true value" and "merged PC + WRP", with both boundaries from the 2010 redistribution and 2017 redistribution (so basically four sets). Happy to upload them if anyone is interested - if so, would mods prefer I post them here or go all necromancer on the 2015 thread?

By the way, how's your three-member districts map coming along?

I've managed to create an unmapped version with all the values and results in three member districts, although those three-member districts have been made of existing ones; I haven't yet done one with entirely new districts. It works quite well, although there are naturally a couple of districts that aren't great (one ends up merging Northern Sturgeon with Westlock and Athabasca) It's largely as expected: a two party system. The thing with Canada as opposed to the UK, is that redistributions tend to work well, so you're joining existing communities of interest with similar ones and doing the same on a bigger scale. I'm doing the same with Quebec 2018 also, but I haven't finished or mapped that either.

[beesley]

Yesterday, the legislature met for the first time, with two-term MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Nathan Cooper elected as Speaker, and Angela Pitt (Airdie-East) and Nick Milliken (Calgary-Currie) as Deputies. Just to make sure there weren't too many Northern Alberta MLAs in higher positions (i.e. more than one)

The UCP have promised a lot but they're in a great position to deliver the change they want. Should be exciting times in Alberta.