Alberta Election 2019

[mileslunn]

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

Maybe mild "historical continuity" sense in that Montgomery and Bowness were something like twin Calgary satellites prior to being annexed by Calgary in 1963-4...

The boundary looks weird because it crosses the river, but Bowness and Montgomery are actually very similar communities due to their similar patterns of development as satellite communities, and their demographics (and voting behaviours). They also share a main street (Bowness Road) which seamlessly connects them and actually makes them appear to be parts of the same community when you drive through them.

Sure, but rivers make natural riding boundaries, and natural riding boundaries within cities should be used as much as possible over dividing up neighbourhood clusters.

I would agree with that, but also major streets as opposed to small ones or residential should be used too.  Certainly rivers make a lot of sense for boundaries and even in rural areas in many ways are useful ones as our mountains (not for urban but rural).

[Smid]

Here is the whole-of-province map (bigger version in gallery, even bigger version available). Obviously less detailed in parts, but happy to zoom in and do detailed maps of any towns of interest (yes, I realise I still haven't done Jasper yet, for Miles). This is now the Official Results, whereas the other maps were all preliminary results. I think Elections Alberta has corrected the two data entry errors in Calgary-East, where the Liberals were "winning" two polls, which were obviously actually NDP votes. Although I think this looks pretty, if you want better detail, obviously head on over to election-atlas.ca, which I think is managed by another poster on here.

 

Also, Miles, that poll in High River we were discussing - looks like that might also have been a typographical error in the preliminary results, as it seems to no longer be a win for the NDP.

[beesley]

Don't know if there is one but I'd be interested to see the results for 2019 on the 2015 boundaries (mostly to see Calgary)

[Smid]

Don't know if there is one but I'd be interested to see the results for 2019 on the 2015 boundaries (mostly to see Calgary)

That one's on the previous page (it's listed as 2010 boundaries, as that was when the redistribution occurred, this election was on the 2017 boundaries). It's easy enough to do, though, if you want other areas. I've edited my previous post to include Edmonton on 2010 boundaries.

I've also completed maps for 2015, both "true value" and "merged PC + WRP", with both boundaries from the 2010 redistribution and 2017 redistribution (so basically four sets). Happy to upload them if anyone is interested - if so, would mods prefer I post them here or go all necromancer on the 2015 thread?

By the way, how's your three-member districts map coming along?

[beesley]

Don't know if there is one but I'd be interested to see the results for 2019 on the 2015 boundaries (mostly to see Calgary)

That one's on the previous page (it's listed as 2010 boundaries, as that was when the redistribution occurred, this election was on the 2017 boundaries). It's easy enough to do, though, if you want other areas. I've edited my previous post to include Edmonton on 2010 boundaries.

I've also completed maps for 2015, both "true value" and "merged PC + WRP", with both boundaries from the 2010 redistribution and 2017 redistribution (so basically four sets). Happy to upload them if anyone is interested - if so, would mods prefer I post them here or go all necromancer on the 2015 thread?

By the way, how's your three-member districts map coming along?

I've managed to create an unmapped version with all the values and results in three member districts, although those three-member districts have been made of existing ones; I haven't yet done one with entirely new districts. It works quite well, although there are naturally a couple of districts that aren't great (one ends up merging Northern Sturgeon with Westlock and Athabasca) It's largely as expected: a two party system. The thing with Canada as opposed to the UK, is that redistributions tend to work well, so you're joining existing communities of interest with similar ones and doing the same on a bigger scale. I'm doing the same with Quebec 2018 also, but I haven't finished or mapped that either.

[beesley]

Yesterday, the legislature met for the first time, with two-term MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Nathan Cooper elected as Speaker, and Angela Pitt (Airdie-East) and Nick Milliken (Calgary-Currie) as Deputies. Just to make sure there weren't too many Northern Alberta MLAs in higher positions (i.e. more than one)

The UCP have promised a lot but they're in a great position to deliver the change they want. Should be exciting times in Alberta.

[mileslunn]

Yesterday, the legislature met for the first time, with two-term MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Nathan Cooper elected as Speaker, and Angela Pitt (Airdie-East) and Nick Milliken (Calgary-Currie) as Deputies. Just to make sure there weren't too many Northern Alberta MLAs in higher positions (i.e. more than one)

The UCP have promised a lot but they're in a great position to deliver the change they want. Should be exciting times in Alberta.

While a lot can happen in four years, the UCP should probably govern to get as much done in 4 years but also think in many ways about next 8 years.  There are 41 seats outside two major cities and only in five was NDP even somewhat competitive while you have 6-8 Calgary seats, mostly on South side which are solidly conservative so while shouldn't get too arrogant, they do have a pretty strong blue wall.  NDP sweeping Edmonton, winning a few more in rest of Alberta and winning all of Calgary save the conservative south side would still put them shy of a majority.

I think NDP will someday return to office, but probably need to wait for next redistribution which should be more urban friendly.  Also I think as long as Liberals are in power federally, people will stick with UCP.  I think once the Tories win federally, that will help NDP as people will feel less risk in voting for them since with the federal government perceived as a hostile to Alberta, many want a government who will fight them not work with them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta's demos (and probably culture too) have to change OR another split in the right wing need to happen first before the NDP wins again. And the fact that Albertans know the NDP can win will make strategic voting on the right more likely to happen, making a perfect right wing split almost impossible anyway.