India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[Frodo]

I know it's two years early, but given the election results so far, does it look like the coalition behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win another landslide in 2024, and hold on for yet another five years?

[Frodo]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever.  Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

[Frodo]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

I don't know if you understood me.  Whichever political party that wins the second most votes to the governing coalition becomes the main national opposition party.  When they eventually beat the governing BJP, they become the governing coalition, not the 'natural opposition'. 

[Frodo]

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

I was speaking in the context of INC in UP.  In much of Northern India INC is still in the game.

At the national level, I find it hard to believe AAP can emerge as the alternative to BJP.  AITC has better chance than AAP and the reality is there is no opposition front to BJP in 2024 without INC.

f) INC is out of the game for now and perhaps forever. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (PGV) clearly has a support base but the INC brand is so weak that most of her supporters must have voted non-INC.  INC lost its base over the years due to the 1993 BSP alliance (Dalit base lost) and the 2017 SP alliance (Muslim base lost) but now it might need to form alliances as a junior party just to survive.

We won't know that for sure until the 2024 elections, but if that is borne out in election results then, maybe it might be time for the Aam Aadmi Party to take up the mantle as the national opposition party to the governing BJP coalition by picking up the Congress Party's pieces.

We will only know if/when the BJP loses power. Whatever party defeats the BJP is the party that will be the natural opposition of India going forward.

I don't know if you understood me.  Whichever political party that wins the second most votes to the governing coalition becomes the main national opposition party.  When they eventually beat the governing BJP, they become the governing coalition, not the 'natural opposition'. 

I was talking long-term. Whatever opposition force is strong enough to actually defeat BJP, is also set to retain a lot of long-term strength over the coming decades (unless they mess up massively a la Janata Dal in 1977...).

All right. Gotcha.

Glad we got that cleared up. 

[Frodo]

India's military recruitment is very biased toward the Northern states.  Note that a good amount of people from Nepal are recruited and serve in Gurka regiments.  A lot of veterans often retire to HP and Uttarakhand and as a result, many of their children have a bias toward wanting to join the military.  In Punjab, the numbers are very biased toward the Sikh population.

As it happens, I read somewhere that the Pakistani army derives most of its recruits from the same general region, namely the provinces of Sindh and Punjab.  There seems to be an established longstanding warrior tradition there, which would make sense.  Since time immemorial, invasions have typically come through the northwestern region of the Indian subcontinent through the Khyber Pass, so the inhabitants would have had to get used to fighting.  

[Frodo]

As it happens, I read somewhere that the Pakistani army derives most of its recruits from the same general region, namely the provinces of Sindh and Punjab.  There seems to be an established longstanding warrior tradition there, which would make sense.  Since time immemorial, invasions have typically come through the northwestern region of the Indian subcontinent through the Khyber Pass, so the inhabitants would have had to get used to fighting.  

This has to do with the Great Indian Mutiny of 1857.  Sikh troops were very active in helping British troops put down the rebellion.  Of course, that is partly revenge for Hindu/Muslims in the Hindi heartland not rising up to help the Sikhs n the Anglo-Sikh wars of the 1840s.  Afterward, the UK decided to really incorporate more Sikhs in their Indian forces.

It far predates the Sepoy Mutiny.  Also, most Punjabis in Pakistan are Muslim (not Sikhs), as are their compatriots in Sindh who are mostly descendants of displaced Indian Muslims.