absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/a-manic-morning-electionsmith-exclusive-party-raceethnicity-and-age-breakdown-of-90k-floridians-who-successfully-registered-to-vote-during-extended-week-following-fdp-lawsuit/

Following is the breakdown of who benefited most from extended FL voter registration after the lawsuit

PARTY

Democrats: 28,357 (31%)
Republicans: 23,410 (26%)
NPAs: 36,414 (40%)
3rd Parties: 2,514 (3%)

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black: 10,782 (12%)
Hispanic: 19,239 (21%)
White: 45,050 (50%)
All Others: 15,624 (17%)

AGE

18-29: 32,448 (36%)
30-44: 22,939 (25%)
45-59: 18,042 (20%)
60-105: 13,810 (4%)
Other (Pre-Registrant; Over-105; Redacted): 3,456

[fldemfunds]

Comparing to 2012 does not make sense. About 50-55% of new registrants have been non white since 2012. And a bunch of republican voting democrats switched parties. Hrc is probably up 4-4.5 with yesterday's numbers. I think today pushes it to 5+

[dspNY]

Chuck Todd: Lots of very nervous Republicans in Florida due to Hispanic voter surge, on Sunday TODAY. Think Trump will come up short there

http://www.today.com/video/florida-is-a-checkmate-state-for-hillary-clinton-says-chuck-todd-802142787806

[ApatheticAustrian]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

[Dr. Arch]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

Remember that there's still today and tomorrow left in early voting for the big D counties, which will shore up the margin more.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah....i think it is going to be dem +60k.

unaff rule the world.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Purple line

I mean your claim, that it became "overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young".

Would be a nice to compare it to 2012.

I don't think there are comparisons to 2012 available. At least, I can't find them, but I can tell you about this year, as I have.

They should be. NC state http://www.ncsbe.gov/ has statistic over 2016 and 2012 (and later). But I think Dems @twitter don't want to compare, since it doesn't differ much, 16' vs 12'

At least, I don't see any reason to not bragging about if it was the case. Do you?

[Dr. Arch]

Purple line

I mean your claim, that it became "overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young".

Would be a nice to compare it to 2012.

I don't think there are comparisons to 2012 available. At least, I can't find them, but I can tell you about this year, as I have.

They should be. NC state http://www.ncsbe.gov/ has statistic over 2016 and 2012 (and later). But I think Dems @twitter don't want to compare, since it doesn't differ much, 16' vs 12'

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

[Devout Centrist]

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

Can you give a concrete numbers compared to 2012 that show that? The diff among UFA is not THAT big IIRC.

Purple line

Looks good to me, especially since millennials like myself usually opt for UnAff.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

[Confused Democrat]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

Remember that there's still today and tomorrow left in early voting for the big D counties, which will shore up the margin more.

I'm pretty sure all of early voting ends today in FL.

[Virginiá]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/a-manic-morning-electionsmith-exclusive-party-raceethnicity-and-age-breakdown-of-90k-floridians-who-successfully-registered-to-vote-during-extended-week-following-fdp-lawsuit/

Following is the breakdown of who benefited most from extended FL voter registration after the lawsuit

PARTY

Democrats: 28,357 (31%)
Republicans: 23,410 (26%)
NPAs: 36,414 (40%)
3rd Parties: 2,514 (3%)

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black: 10,782 (12%)
Hispanic: 19,239 (21%)
White: 45,050 (50%)
All Others: 15,624 (17%)

AGE

18-29: 32,448 (36%)
30-44: 22,939 (25%)
45-59: 18,042 (20%)
60-105: 13,810 (4%)
Other (Pre-Registrant; Over-105; Redacted): 3,456

That was a godsend for Democrats!

[Confused Democrat]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

[Dr. Arch]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

Remember that there's still today and tomorrow left in early voting for the big D counties, which will shore up the margin more.

I'm pretty sure all of early voting ends today in FL.

Fixed Still, another day is nice.

[ApatheticAustrian]

pub anti-EV sentiment combined with local politics: dem counties in FL vote today, pub counties mostly not.....

i am grateful.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

[Speed of Sound]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

[dspNY]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

Actually, one could see this in NC statistics 12' vs 16'. Probably someone did it?

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

Link?

[Speed of Sound]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

Wasn't that the number out of FL? Or did I get that wrong?

[dspNY]

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

Actually, one could see this in NC statistics 12' vs 16'. Probably someone did it?

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

Link?

Go to Steve Schale's twitter

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

Dixiecrats?

[dspNY]

As of 11:00 AM, 13,149 voters in Broward County have voted. We could be headed for a massive Sunday there

[ApatheticAustrian]

didn't dems lost about 300k registered voters since 2012 on FL?

massive dixiecrat state. (and dems still outregistered pubs)

[Dr. Arch]

As of 11:00 AM, 13,149 voters in Broward County have voted. We could be headed for a massive Sunday there

Bruh