absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[JerryArkansas]

A note to get away from the Tender bantering, in GA 23859 more African Americans have voted than at this point in 2012.

[Mike88]

Hmm... In 2012, overall AA turnout was 13%. Many are saying it's going down, but does anyone knows the EV % of AA turnout nationwide?

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
Again Afr-Am enthusiasm should not be judged by NC alone: Georgia Afr-Am #earlyovte up +23,859 from 2012, but NC down -65,650 votes

[Tender Branson]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
Again Afr-Am enthusiasm should not be judged by NC alone: Georgia Afr-Am #earlyovte up +23,859 from 2012, but NC down -65,650 votes

What was the AA early vote % in GA in 2012 and what is it now ?

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/05/the-early-vote-scenario-is-by-no-means-uniformly-good-for-hillary-clinton/

Nice read

GA and NC polls performing better than 2012 yet black electorate dropping steeply may indicate that it's not so much black votes that matter but educated whites' votes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

from the 4th circuit court of appeals...regarding NC voting station changes and "smoking guns"






https://mobile.twitter.com/AriBerman/status/795292567042658304

[Speed of Sound]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/05/the-early-vote-scenario-is-by-no-means-uniformly-good-for-hillary-clinton/

Nice read

GA and NC polls performing better than 2012 yet black electorate dropping steeply may indicate that it's not so much black votes that matter but educated whites' votes.

Yeah, educated counties, especially ones that have been lean-R counties before, will be worth watching very closely.

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15m15 minutes ago
FL and LA similar to GA, btw, so something went very wrong in NC

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15m15 minutes ago
FL and LA similar to GA, btw, so something went very wrong in NC

Voter suppression.

[Speed of Sound]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15m15 minutes ago
FL and LA similar to GA, btw, so something went very wrong in NC

"something"

[alomas]

Isn't she down a few points among blacks in Florida?

[ApatheticAustrian]

read my post above......courts are acknowledging it.

[Tender Branson]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

[BundouYMB]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

Tender, blacks are only down as a PERCENTAGE of turnout in LA. In raw numbers blacks are at about 120~% of their 2012 numbers in LA.

[Ozymandias]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

He's referring to absolute numbers, not relative percentages.

If 50% more people have voted early this year in LA, and blacks are 26% of that vote, then that means comparatively they would have been 39% of the 2012 vote.

[Lyin' Steve]

Is this legit?  If so, she would seem to be screwed in Florida and North Carolina.

[Speed of Sound]

Yes, but that hardly means she's screwed. Intra-party switches are mostly voters that were already voting another way anyway and IND going up looks to be good given the demos of registered INDs.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is a long-term trend steve....dixiecrat alignment.

dems have outregistered pubs again. but yeah, unaff decide.

[Dr. Arch]

Why would that mean she's screwed? Intra-party switches are all voters that were already voting another way anyway and IND going up looks to be good given the demos of registered INDS.

This. The fact that she's matching the EV leads +/- even with many Dixie switches is just that much more dangerous for Trump.

[Tender Branson]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

He's referring to absolute numbers, not relative percentages.

If 50% more people have voted early this year in LA, and blacks are 26% of that vote, then that means comparatively they would have been 39% of the 2012 vote.

Absolute numbers are meaningless. It's the percentage that matters: If AA made up 35% in 2008 and 2012, but only 26% now that is very, very bad for Hillary and the Dems down there. It means that Trump is flirting with 60% of the vote in LA, or more than that.

[Ebsy]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, but that hardly means she's screwed. Intra-party switches are mostly voters that were already voting another way anyway and IND going up looks to be good given the demos of registered INDs.

Dems lost 3.45% in FL. 0.45 went to Reps. But 3% is lost. How is that good? UFA is not more Democratic that "gone" Dems. Or?

[Tender Branson]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Why? Polls were predicting from the beginning higher white share and lower black share. They were criticized for that in polls threads. Now, when we see that pattern in EV, you're saying it incredible likely to be election day cannibalization. Why?

[JerryArkansas]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

Yet what you say isn't how it works as well.  Just because you don't like Hillary doesn't mean you need to keep throwing sh**t all over this thread.