absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Mehmentum]

1.) There are fewer (registered) Democratic voters because dixiecrats have finally changed their registration, it doesn't hurt them in the slightest.

2.) Educated white EV is surging.  In NoVa, turnout is up like 50%.  These people will not vote for Trump.

3.) Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents) are very D-leaning.  Them surging is awful news for Republicans.

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston has made his official prediction:

HRC 46
Trump 40
Johnson 7
NOTA 7


http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/05/ralston-how-deep-does-blue-wave-go/93349220/

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://electionbettingodds.com/earlyvoting.html election betting odds now has an early voting % comparison in 5 key states, for anyone interested.

Thanks!

So I don't understand why noone can create a site when one can look all demographic statistics change compared to 2012 (gender, race, age, registred R/D/UFA)

Everyone gives just a little info. Dems compare Hispanics, but not Blacks. GOPs talking about more registred Reps, but don't say anything about big increase among  young/female/hispanic UFA etc.

It is very difficult to compare

Ralston has made his official prediction:

HRC 46
Trump 40
Johnson 7
NOTA 7


http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/05/ralston-how-deep-does-blue-wave-go/93349220/

14% to others He implies also that polls will be 8% points off. I doubt, but it might of course happen because of Hispanics.

[The Other Castro]

Ralston has made his official prediction:

HRC 46
Trump 40
Johnson 7
NOTA 7


http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/05/ralston-how-deep-does-blue-wave-go/93349220/

His Senate prediction:

Cortez-Masto - 46%
Heck - 43%
Other + NOTA = 11%

CD3 Prediction:
Rosen, 48 percent; Tarkanian, 45 percent; rest, 7 percent.

CD4 Prediction:
Kihuen, 51 percent; Hardy, 47 percent; rest, 2 percent.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

Let me remind you the GOP won in 2012.
Now add more Republicans and whites, take out some  blacks.
Add some independents, who Trump won in every poll.
She might have a 10% chance here at most.

"If I analyze this state like Alabama, Trump wins!"

Are the numerically illiterate allowed to post on this board? Show me how the numbers work in her favor. Oh wait, you cant.

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

[mark_twain]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Numerical illiteracy shown above.

[Sigh144]

I am still extremely worried about NC, I dont see how you can say it looks like anything other than a a Trump win or at best a lean Trump.

Florida is way too close for comfort although I'm encouraged by the rise of NPA's who are more diverse than the electorate at large.

Ohio is probably Trump no?

Same for Iowa.............

If Florida surprises and goes to Trump hes right there knocking on the door to 270.

Granted, Nevada looks done. But thats not enough. She would still need NH and Colorado, while I dont foresee Trump carrying NH, the polls say its a toss up.

Then theres Michigan which I doubt is really in play but add it all up and it is way too close for comfort for me.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

Can you give a concrete numbers compared to 2012 that show that? The diff among UFA is not THAT big IIRC.

[Dr. Arch]

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

Can you give a concrete numbers compared to 2012 that show that? The diff among UFA is not THAT big IIRC.

Purple line

[BlueSwan]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

[Dr. Arch]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

It isn't. NM is a special case in closeness due to Johnson still having a good chunk of the vote, but those will break for HRC in the end. In any case, Trump has never led there either.

[Sigh144]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

Gary Johnson is a favorite son there.

Used to be Governor.

I doubt it's actually close.

[ApatheticAustrian]

long term latino states aren't latino in that sense anymore.

like someone explained......co/nm are not NV/TX/FL/AZ.

i think it's impossible to call NC/FL correctly....too much voting, too much unknown areas.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Purple line

I mean your claim, that it became "overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young".

Would be a nice to compare it to 2012.

[Speed of Sound]

i think it's impossible to call NC/FL correctly....too much voting, too much unknown areas.

I agree. Glad that insiders all seem to like what they see for HRC in FL, but so many things can't be modeled there...

[Dr. Arch]

Purple line

I mean your claim, that it became "overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young".

Would be a nice to compare it to 2012.

I don't think there are comparisons to 2012 available. At least, I can't find them, but I can tell you about this year, as I have.

[fldemfunds]

As a Florida insider, hrc has won Florida

[BlueSwan]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

It isn't. NM is a special case in closeness due to Johnson still having a good chunk of the vote, but those will break for HRC in the end. In any case, Trump has never led there either.

Good point. Forgot about Johnson for a moment there. The election is getting to me - can't think clearly anymore.

[The Other Castro]

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

All in all, just over 420K Floridians voted yesterday, it was the best net day of the cycle for Democrats.

Total Ballots cast: 6,152,099

Total Vote By Mail: 2,536,167 (42.2%)
Total Early Vote: 3,615,932 (57.8%)

Democrats: 2,435,493 (39.58%)
Republicans: 2,261,383 (39.06%)
NPA: 1,201,715 (21.35%)

Total Margin: DEM +0.59%

[Speed of Sound]

Schale's daily post is up.

Excerpt:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

[ApatheticAustrian]

hm?

why are dems up about 170k votes now? did i miss something?

[Dr. Arch]

hm?

why are dems up about 170k votes now? did i miss something?

Yesterday

[Sigh144]

Does anyone have racial breakdown of NPA's in FL so far in early vote for just Hillsborough county?

[BoAtlantis]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Turns out VA wasn't done counting. Absentee votes cast shoot up to 538,410, 12% over yesterday's count & a 20% increase over '12 totals.

Fairfax County at 116,298 absentees, a 35% increase over '12. PWC up 86% (!!), Loudoun up 34%, Arlington up 27%. Everywhere else up just 9%.

Top VA absentee vote increases vs. '12:

1. Manassas Park (D) +87%
2. Prince William (D) +86%
3. Manassas (D) +56%
4. Wise (R) +56%

[ApatheticAustrian]

does that mean we are more or less in obama area? didn't he win EV by something like 170k?

pardon...i feel.....surprised....