Israel General Discussion: The Return of the Rotation Government

[Hnv1]

If there are early elections and the polling stays on trend, couldn't a non-Likud and non-Haredi government be formed?

A Yamina (20+) and Yesh Atid (20+) rotation with B&W (~10) and Yisrael Beiteinu (~10) as coalition partners?

On paper yes. but those numbers don't make sense (it will require a big fall in Arab turnout). Also Bennett might find it hard to govern in such a coalition, it might be a temporary one and after a year hoping Bibi is no longer Likud leader he could add them to counterbalance YA.

Even if he doesn't get 61 seats, Meretz\whoever will run left of YA could be persuaded to some form of confidence and supply.

[Hnv1]

No doubt. But concern isn't enough anymore, especially when you wave big enough benefits for their leaders.

I have to say with all honesty that although the UAE and Bahrain agreement was BS, the Sudan one and the tightening relations with Egypt are making me question some of the long-standing positions we held on the left.

[Hnv1]

Something that Zionists don't seem to understand is that Palestinian leaders are no less limited by political considerations than Israeli leaders.

These agreements obviously aren't encouraging for Palestinians, but the big picture seems more or less unchanged: it's not politically possible for an agreement to be reached now and won't be for the foreseeable future. In the short-term, Palestinians are paying the price, but in the long-term, it's possible that it will become very ugly all-around.

Yeah it’s known. Israel could bend on even Jerusalem, but there is no Palestinian leader who can bend on the refugees and the “refugees”. So we’re in a dead end. And no one is eager to go back to the table when both sides know they have no reason to flex even a bit for a futile discussion

[Hnv1]

I just find it worth nothing that Israel's diplomatic gains don't seem to be accompanied by any difference in public opinion (and Israel's standing in much of the West, especially the left, has declined over the last decade). So it's far from guaranteed that the favorable environment for Israel will continue indefinitely. And if the world really is headed towards Cold War 2.0, realpolitik may dictate losses for Israel that would probably surpass the gains. So comparing the Palestinian cause to the Tibetan nonsense (which was never seriously taken up by any state) seems ridiculous - if only Israel itself were as complacent as the Zionist rank-and-file!

Also, it's true that there are segments within Israeli politics that are willing to compromise on Jerusalem (and are serious about the "two-state solution" in general). But said segments have been unable to win an election in over a decade, and now their successors are nearly indistinguishable from the government with regard to the peace process industry. So can it continue to be said that *Israel itself* can compromise on Jerusalem, and is committed to the "two-state solution"? I don't really think so myself.

You're quite the sensationalist. Cold War 2 isn't around the corner, and Israel has great working relations with Russia, China, and India.
The left in the west is ultra pro Palestine. so? they are farther from political power than we on the Israeli left.

The left-right divide on the Palestinian issue is dead, the left lost all the elections the past decade (well...a win in 2019 and 2020 but failed to form a government, and well a win in 2009, and a tie in 2013), in reasons that are unrelated to that issue. Even big parts of the Right would be willing for some agreement in Jerusalem.

Hell, I've been active in peace organizations for three decades now and can't say I'm committed to the 2SS like a decade ago. It's called being rational, adapting to the changing circumstances. The Oslo framework is dead, no one on the Palestinian side will move an inch until Abbas is dead and the succession battle is decided, and the internal divide between Hamas and Fatah is deadlegging the negotiations from the start.

Israel is committed to the 2SS like I am to quit smoking. on paper, I say yes but as the situation never materialize it makes no difference

[Hnv1]

I think we can probably accept that pro-Palestinian, anti-Uighur takes don't actually deserve to be treated in good faith.

I don’t understand the context of that post

[Hnv1]

Maoism is still a thing. Good to know

[Hnv1]

Greenwashing?

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/legalizing-marijuana-could-happen-within-9-months-nissenkorn-648901

More like one of the highest percentage of cannabis users in the world and everyone not wanting Zehut/green leaf parties wasting votes.

It won’t happen anytime soon anyhow

[Hnv1]

Greenwashing?

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/legalizing-marijuana-could-happen-within-9-months-nissenkorn-648901

More like one of the highest percentage of cannabis users in the world and everyone not wanting Zehut/green leaf parties wasting votes.

It won’t happen anytime soon anyhow

Ale Yarok haven’t been running, tho?

Not in 2019/20. Did run in 2015 and wasted votes, and Zehut screwed over Bibi’s right wing majority in 2019A.

Anyhow the bill won’t pass as it’s government legislation by B&W, so incentive for likud to play ball, and  the government stopped moving forward legislation months ago. Plus it requires a lot of planning by administrative authorities and legislation. Considering the Knesset will dissolve either in December or March. That just won’t happen.

Unless Bibi sees some internal polls saying he needs it.

Part for Yamina and JL, legalisation is almost a consensus*


* it’s worth noting that Edelson’s Hag-wife is really anti cannabis and that might deter him from pushing it forward

[Hnv1]

I don't think the Kushner plan is intended to be a meaningful plan to settle the Palestine Question. But, I do agree that the Palestinians blew their chances for a Palestinian state a long time ago. My belief is that the Palestinians will now dwindle into insignificance in the minds of the other Middle Eastern countries and leaders and Palestine as a concept will be extinguished in the next decade.

The world isn't an array of platonic ideas. There are millions of very much living, breathing, fuming Palestinians. gunpowder has the disposition to explode.

Anyhow, after Gantz created an internal inquiry commission to the submarine affair, and Bibi made it clear we'll be voting on a budget for 7 days in late December the next election cycle is 99% going to be in March. meaning three consecutive years of March-April elections. This is getting tiresome

I am still of the opinion that Bibi is planning some election-referendum on a presidential system. A new president must be picked between April-June 2021 even if there's an election, but so far the Likud has made no noise about a candidate. Now after seven years of Rivlin and the president actually playing a political role I can't believe Bibi doesn't care who the president is.

[Hnv1]

This is a thread for current Israeli politics, not global musings over the conflict. There are numerous threads for that. thank you

[Hnv1]

i just randomly saw a video on twitter about Hallel Rabin. Do conscientious objectors really get jailed like that? When Orthodox ones don't? you really start to see Liebermann's point if that's the case.

Only if they wish to make it their point that they object. Most just get out of service in the regular channels.
There’s actually quite a lot of jailed Orthodox Jews as some can’t really cope with the yeshiva life and then lose their privilege not to draft.

Lieberman’s point is what? Anyone with a bit of common sense can see that they will never be drafted en masse, nor would it be to anyone’s benefit. The right thing to do is simply abolish the mandatory conscription

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1333836376819838978?s=20

It's just the preliminary reading. But it is a strong signal. The question is if the Knesset does dissolve in the end will it force the resignation of the B&W ministers from the interim government.

I don't think Bibi wants to go to elections just yet, so he might give Gantz the first hearing on the budget and wait a little longer before going to elections.

B&W are either way dead as disco. Might as well finish with some dignity

[Hnv1]

Gideon Saar is resigning the whip and breaking away to form a new right party. Will probably take 2-5 MKs with him

[Hnv1]

Morroco and Israel to sign a "peace treaty" (there are diplomatic relations and flights between the countries already). Or as the three text messages I got since the announcement read "now they can all go back home"

[Hnv1]

So what cabinet position is Sa’ar reaching for?

It seems like he’s going all in thinking he can squeeze the premiership here. If Bibi does win I assume he’ll want justice or something like that

[Hnv1]

Morroco and Israel to sign a "peace treaty" (there are diplomatic relations and flights between the countries already). Or as the three text messages I got since the announcement read "now they can all go back home"

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but were these texts from Ashkenazi-background Israelis being bigoted toward Sephardic Moroccan-Israelis?

Yes, and bigoted might be a strong word here.

[Hnv1]

As Bibi is keeping Gantz and Ashkenazi out of the loop (they had to learn about Morocco from the White House), Foreign Secretary counters with establishing diplomatic relations with Bhutan.

The worst government ever. Even Barak’s short lived failure wasn’t this bad.

[Hnv1]

According to recent polling, it seems that Gideon's new party is stealing votes from Yamina and YA. Is he now the "real" alternative to Bibi?

Peres once said on polls that they're like perfume, they smell nice but don't get drunk on them.

only time will tell. I can definitely say Lt. Gen. Eisenkot (he's not Ashkenaz) will not join Saar. from sources close to him, the guy is to the left B&W so quite far for the pure right-wing Saar party.

Saar did pledge not to sit in any government led by Netanyahu. I believe him on that

[Hnv1]

Yifat Shasha Biton is joining Sa’ar

Not just joining, but "joint leadership" and a promise that she will be deputy PM if he's the PM. Also, the list will be 50-50 men-women.

That's a lot of currency Sa'ar paid for a popular but not that popular MK with little experience (minister for a year, and a house committee chair) unlike Livni squeezing Herzog. I think Sa'ar could have gotten her for a cheaper "price" unless he really values her skills. idk. She did put some resistance to government measures on Covid, but I really don't get this move.

Now we know Hendel and Hauser are in. Rumors former MK Polkman from Kulano will join. Michal Shir and libertarian Sharen Haskel from Likud as well. But Sa'ar still needs to bulk the list up with more ministerial material. Dichter wants to join but rumors are that Sa'ar doesn't really want him, I doubt Eisenkot will join so I am not sure who else is on sight. Maybe former Brig. Gen. Gal Hirsch as the ex-general, who knows.

Sa'ar is very popular with Likud mayors, some might join, former MK and mayor of Ramat Gan - Shama-Cohen is the obvious candidate. The current Eilat mayor already announced his support.

I do think we need to look at a merger possibility, I have a feeling Lieberman might be willing to run with Sa'ar to create a bigger tent right-wing party to counterbalance Likud. it might work. Boogie Yaalon and Telem as well once Boogie realizes no one likes him or sees him as a possible PM.

Meanwhile, Bibi declared the new head of the Mossad, and as the last one is already deep in Likud politics, we might see him make his entrance after the next elections. Bibi allegedly once said that he sees both Yossi Cohen and Ron Dremer (coming back from DC soon) as potential future successors.

Gantz fired Hendel as minister and Hauser as the chairman of his house committee. I'm starting to think B&W isn't even going to run as a party next time.

_____________________________________________________________

On the left: Shelah says he definitely won't join Meretz (sic: especially not as a second-string). and that Lapid stopped talking to him. I suppose he and Holdai will start something and force Meretz to join on unfavorable terms.

Lapid will lose ground soon in polls with both Bennett and Sa'ar more likely PMs than him.

JL might split.

[Hnv1]

Stupid question but did Yamina have a specific ethnic/religious group voting bloc before it became suddenly popular? Like primarily Ashkenazi/Sephardi or Reform Orthodox . I remember someone saying they attracted black kippa wearers but maybe that was about Shas.

"National Religious", i.e. either Modern Orthodox or Hardal.

Yes, although less cohesive than in the past. the "religious lite" and the anglo-Saxon modern orthodox immigrants vote more to the left (as are the remnants of the religious Kibbutz movement). The hardcore Hardals ran their own party against LGTBQs last time around quit toward the end and the core of those people voted for UTJ (Rabbi Tau's flock).

The national-religious movement is now too big for one sectorial party.

[Hnv1]

Stupid question but did Yamina have a specific ethnic/religious group voting bloc before it became suddenly popular? Like primarily Ashkenazi/Sephardi or Reform Orthodox . I remember someone saying they attracted black kippa wearers but maybe that was about Shas.

"National Religious", i.e. either Modern Orthodox or Hardal.

Yes, although less cohesive than in the past. the "religious lite" and the anglo-Saxon modern orthodox immigrants vote more to the left (as are the remnants of the religious Kibbutz movement). The hardcore Hardals ran their own party against LGTBQs last time around quit toward the end and the core of those people voted for UTJ (Rabbi Tau's flock).

The national-religious movement is now too big for one sectorial party.

Back when Mafdal was a thing, roughly what share of national religious vote did they get?

Really hard to measure but until the 70’s almost all of it as they were the pivot of every coalition. A bit voted labour, a bit voted Herut.
With the rise of the settlers movement that shifted them to the right, from the 80’s fringe right parties like Moldet and T’hia took more of their votes. Also more light religious people moved to Likud, and the old religious left voted labour.
By the 00’s they were dominant but not the majority with so many other right wing parties.

[Hnv1]

Why is Sa'ar considered prime ministerial material? I understand that Gantz was the head of the army, Lieberman has held a bunch of ministerial positions, Lapid was a very prominent and popular journalist, Bennett was a software entrepreneur, and so forth. Sa'ar doesn't seem like he has unique qualifications or experiences -- why is he able to outshine all of these people as an alternative to Netanyahu?

Kachlon makes much more sense to me (since he had actual accomplishments as Minister of Communications). Why is it that Kulanu failed to take off but Sa'ar is polling at 20 seats?

What made Bibi PM material in 1996? Nothing. Gantz was the CoGS (not just the army) but as most generals proved terrible in politics.
What’s Saar’s appeal?...I can only guess that a myriad of factors.
He looks honest, as in old school right wing Beitar honest.
He’s politically savvy and quite popular with politicos and journalists and they boost his image.
He’s actually good at communicating in a nerdy way. Gantz is a terrible speaker, Lieberman has a foreign accent, and Lapid is usually appealing to an electorate more educated than him and comes off shallow.
Unlike all of the above he looks like he could form a coalition as soft leftists could at least not oppose his government in a confidence vote.

I actually know people who know him (from legal circles and the Tel Aviv yuppies). Very dangerous person. Not in the populist proto-fascist Bibi way, but in a back room quite power moves way. He’s a pence not a Trump

[Hnv1]

Former minister, convict, and massive ****, Haim Ramon has been negotiating between Gantz and a Bibi for the past few days trying to maintain the government. If they do reach some agreement they 4 days to try to bend the constitution and laws to somehow enable it, I doubt it’s possible but still. Gantz is an absolute disgrace, I can’t see him running again personally.

Ramon is planning to go back in. Slimey person. Shula Aloni RIP was bang on the head about his egoism and smartly passed him away from Meretz when he pissed Rabin off. Sex offender and a dirtbag

[Hnv1]

After some B&W MKs vote against and one Likud ML who immediately joined Sa’ar afterwards it’s I think impossible to delay an election. The Knesset will dissolve tonight at 00:00

[Hnv1]

current election date is 23.03.2021 which is on Passover, the Knesset can delay election day up to 3.4.2021