Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When did New Jersey ever have better candidates than Virginia?  Never.  Virginia > New Jersey.

I can think of a state that can beat Virginia in that category Ben.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When did New Jersey ever have better candidates than Virginia?  Never.  Virginia > New Jersey.

I can think of a state that can beat Virginia in that category Ben.

North Carolina?  Ha!

Nope Virginian has NC beat, keep guessing. I will give you a hint, its north of VA.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Michigan?

Your slipping, friend. Its East of Michigan.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maryland.

Your impossible . Last chance, it has been called a state with two cities and Alabama in middle.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

New Hampshire?

I don't know of an area in NH that is comparable to Alabama. Okay so I will play along with this. I got nothing better to do.

South of New Hampshire and West of the Hudson River.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pennsylvania.

The state I was born in. It took you long enough.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pennsylvania.

The state I was born in. It took you long enough.

I still say Virginia has better candidates.

Kaine > Rendell
Webb and Warner > Specter and Casey
VA 08 > PA 13

I would agree on all of them.

Ridge>Kaine
Mark Schweiker>Mark Warner
Richard Schweiker and Hugh Scott> Webb and Warner

oh and
PA-10 beats VA-08.

Sorry for going back to 70's to beat your current Senators but Toomey hasn't been elected yet.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What a load of bullshit.  Everything about that poll is way off.

Initially I would have agreed but when you consider that minority/young voters will not be as enthused as they were in 2008, also even when reweighted this poll still gives McDonnell the edge. My bet is McDonnell by 5-8 points.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If other, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 32%
Republican...................................................... 35%
Other............................................................... 33%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If you are African-
American, press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 79%
African American ............................................ 16%
Other............................................................... 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 9%
30 to 45........................................................... 21%
46 to 65........................................................... 49%
Older than 65.................................................. 21%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

This is regional, but I hope you know the regions by area code.
Q14
276.................................................................. 8%
434.................................................................. 10%
540.................................................................. 25%
703.................................................................. 20%
757.................................................................. 17%
804.................................................................. 20%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Party ID seems off, and I can't comment on race/age.  How did each group vote?

Republicans vote 94-4 for McDonnell
Democrats voted 80-2 for Deeds
Indies voted 52-33 for McDonnell

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its very similar to the SurveyUSA poll. If you read the other PPP link they say that there is an 18 point motivation gap in McDonnell's favor and so the poll consists of 52% McCain voters and 41% Obama voters. Similar to the gap found by SurveyUSA.

Sorry Ben, looks like your fellow Dems aren't as enthused about Deeds as you are.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

This is regional, but I hope you know the regions by area code.
Q14
276.................................................................. 8%
434.................................................................. 10%
540.................................................................. 25%
703.................................................................. 20%
757.................................................................. 17%
804.................................................................. 20%

I think 703 is underrepresented, and 740 is overrepresented.  How did they vote?

Republicans vote 94-4 for McDonnell
Democrats voted 80-2 for Deeds
Indies voted 52-33 for McDonnell

Indies won't stay +19 for McDonnell for long.

The Democrats will get enthused, once they get focused.

703 went 51-44 for Deeds. If you are reffering to 540 since there isn't a 740, it went 66-33 for McDonnell.

Even if Deeds gets 48% of Indies, as along as McDonnell keeps his 52% among them the Undecided Indies are a non factor considering McDonnell leads statewide with over 50%. The same goes for the Dems. The only thing that can turn this towards Deeds to get more Dems out then are in this poll.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans did the same denial of reality in 2008.

2006 for sure. I remember saying there was no way the Republicans would lose the Senate cause the GOP GOTV would save VA and MO for us in the end. Remember how that turned out. I wonder how Allen is enjoying his second term as Senator. .

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't understand why anyone would care at this race at all, its incredibly boring and uninteresting.  The candidates are bland, the issues are bland, and frankly its not even much of a race

I think it's interesting that McDonnell and Deeds almost have the urban-rural split switched along partisan lines, with McDonnell being quite a strong Republican in cities and suburbs while Deeds has been outperforming most Democrats in rural VA.

That doesn't make for an interesting race.  NJ is an interesting race for a governor's seat that actually means something.  I mean seriously the governor of VA is a do-nothing job compared to the governor of NJ

Well actually this election they are both pretty similar. Both state GOP party's choose the best possible candidates, both have stong appeals to people we have been losing in recent elections, both are leading by strong margins in states we have been losing ground in. If they flip its possible that both will flip by a similar margin.

I have been in Virginia, but only for a short time, couple of hours. I have never been to Jersey however. Though of course considering my recent health problems I did consider going there to get a black market organ, however I doubt they deal in intestines, so it didn't seem practical.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Virginia Gov(Rasmussen)

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election


Poll was taken yesterday. So AFTER the thesis brouhaha.

You forgetting that is RASMUSSEN.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I come here looking of an update on the VA Governor's race and all I see is dickless ECR trolling around again with Sam Spade and Lunar playing with him like a cat toy. lol

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Cuccineli is beating Shannon 69-31.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bolling leading 65%-35% as of right now

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With 6% reporting its
McDonnell 66%
Deeds 34%


Cuccinelli 68%
Shannon 32%


Bolling 64%
Wagner 36%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The AP source sucks. Are there any better ones out there?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The AP source sucks. Are there any better ones out there?

http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.html

McDonnell is doing well in inner NoVA so far. 10% or so better than McCain.

My computer is too slow to load it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pay attention all Conservatives!!!!!! This is da way you got to do it, to win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well we now have 23 Governors instead of 22.


I love the smell of victory at night, it smells like, like Victory.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Something I noticed...
In 2005, Kilgore beat Kaine in Bath County 53-45%. But in 2009, Deeds won it 63-36%. Can someone possibly from Virginia explain that? Thank you.

Hometown advantage.