Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Podemos founders part ways

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/18/inenglish/1547798597_841198.html

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Government change in Andalusia

https://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-andalusia-government-change/

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The "five takeaways" are explained in the article.

As for the Podemos breakaway, I'm not sure about this wager. I think the diagnisis made by Íñigo Errejón is correct. The Andalusian outcome shows that it's necessary a revulsive. Also, the broad movement advocated by Errejón seems more attractive to me than the Unidos Podemos formula, which only appeals to the "people of the left" and has proven ineffective (it doesn't appeal a broader base and it doesn't retain all the vote Podemos and IU got separately). But the Podemos implosion might end in disaster and eventually in the demise of the Spanish Left, following preceding catastrophes in France and Italy.  I wish all the best to Carmena and Errejón: they have all my sympathy. But I'm worried too...

[Velasco]

Errejon and his supporters claim the crisis can be solved and a new deal is possible, but Podemos leadership says the bridges are broken beyond repair. On the other hand, IU spokeswoman in Madrid says the deal beteeen Podemos and her organization is broken and it's urgent and necessary a new one to run in regional snd local elections. Podemos has no candidate for regional elections at this moment, but a logical option could be regional drcretary Ramón Espinar. On the fence, the PSOE observes with perplexity and concern. The collapse of Podemos wouldn't help the socialists.

As for the municipality of Madrid, Podemos will not run against Manuela Carmena, but refuses to support her campaign and to psrticipate in her list. IU is considering to run against Carmena in the city (very likely according to eldiario.es),  but nothing is decided. The Anticapitalist faction of Podemos, always very critic of Carmena, calls to organize a list.

Ignacio Escolar analyzes what is likely the last battle between Iglesias and Errejon. It is very difficult to redirect the situation

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/claves-ruptura-Iglesias-Errejon_6_858524171.html

[Former President tack50]

El Español released a rare "estimation" for the Spanish Senate



If wondering, the Senate is mostly elected through limited block voting, with a small appointed part.

In each of the 48 provinces in the Spanish mainland, 4 candidates are elected, with voters getting 3 votes (the most common arrangement is thus 3 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the "major islands" of Gran Canaria, Tenerife and Mallorca, 3 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (thus the most common arrangement is 2 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, 2 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (so, FPTP but with more candidates)

In the "minor islands" of La Palma, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, Menorca and Ibiza-Formentera (who form a single constituency); 1 candidate is elected with voters getting 1 vote (so, standard FPTP)

Finally, after each regional election, each autonomous community appoints 1 senator, plus another senator for every 1 million people, in a proportional manner. This means that Vox now has 1 senator appointed for Andalucia. Since a majority of the appointed senators will be elected in May 2019 they didn't include the appointed senators.

In any case, it seems PP will very much lose its majority, with PSOE becoming the largest party in the Senate for the first time since 1995! (when they lost their plurality after the 1995 regional elections)

The Senate map can and will change a lot based on very minor vote changes so I'd take it as just a curiosity, I could see anything from a huge PSOE majority to a hung Senate, depending on the vote splitting.

In any case the Spanish Senate is very weak as it can only delay laws for about 1 month. It does have 2 places where it's important: Constitutional ammendments and most importantly, activating article 155 in Catalonia (the direct rule article), which requires Senate approval. So in theory under this estimation, PSOE could block article 155 if they feel it's unjustified.

As for the estimation itself, it seems about right, though I will say that there are 2 seats missing, one for CC in El Hierro and one for ASG (small local party, PSOE split) in La Gomera. Both should be safe seats for each.

[Former President tack50]

Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).

[Velasco]

Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).

Podemos leadership claims that Errejón is already gone, but I think this is an excuse. Errejón is not like the six councilors who decided to run in the Más Madrid local primaries and were suspended from membership, on request of the Podemos local branch. He is one of the founding members of Podemos ("I couldn't leave, even if I wanted. It runs in my blood"). Expelling him would be tragic and costly, so Iglesias and his supporters prefer to say that Errejón is no longer member because he left for Más Madrid. It's up to see what happens with the members of the Errejón faction if they participate in Más Madrid, besides the suspended councilors (Rita Maestre and the others) and the rest of territorial branches. In case Podemos leadership persists in saying the bridges are broken, the party could be on the verge of collapse. Errejón says that he made the "correct" and not the "comfortable" decision. He resigns the seat in Congress to  de-escalate the situation (first he said that he would resign"immediately" on formal request, but Iglesias supporters said it was his decision suggesting that he should go) and hopes that Podemos leadership "reconsiders" (he said this weekend that Iglesias' leadership is "conformist") and the party joins the broader platform of Más Madrid.

[Velasco]

Podemos secretary in Madrid, Ramon Espinar, resigns office and his seat in Senate and Regional Assembly. Despite he is a close ally of Pablo Iglesias, Espinar disagrees with the Podemos leader on the course for the crisis and opposes running a list against Errejón in the regional election. This move shows the Pablo Iglesias faction is not a stony and immovable block. There are voices calling for a joint list with Más Madrid. On the other hand, some regional secretaries (including Basque Country and Murcia, alligned with Errejón) met in Toledo and made a release calling for "confidence, unity, coordination and negotiation". No one from the national leadership attended the meeting.

[Former President tack50]

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

[Oryxslayer]

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

[Mike88]

More polling:

Hamalgama–Ágora Integral poll: (never heard of them)

22.5% PP, 84/86 seats
21.2% PSOE, 74/78
19.3% UP, 62/65
18.2% C's, 67/70
  8.7% Vox, 28/29
  2.5% ERC, 8
  2.0% PNV, 7
  1.8% PDeCAT, 4/5
  0.6% Bildu, 2
  0.2% CC, 0/1
  3.0% Others

NC Report poll:

24.2% PSOE, 98 seats
24.0% PP, 99
18.7% C's, 64
16.6% UP, 48
  9.4% Vox, 18

KeyData/Público poll:

22.3% PSOE, 98 seats
21.5% PP, 89
19.8% C's, 67
14.8% UP, 51
10.3% Vox, 18
  3.1% ERC, 12
  1.6% PDeCAT, 6
  1.1% PNV, 6
  0.9% Bildu, 2
  0.3% CC, 1
  4.3% Others
  
Don't understand the seat projection from KeyData. I would assume PP would be ahead by 1 or 2 seats or basically tied with PSOE.

[Former President tack50]

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.

More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.

[Oryxslayer]

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.

More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.

Sorry, if wasn't clear, by them I meant PSOE+C's. If Podemos are truly imploding, then the amount of options available to a left-wing voter are limited, which may breath new life into the Red-Orange Govt. Right now though, that option isn't available.

[jaichind]

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

It seems that as Podemos support goes down over the last few month that support should flow to PSOE.  It seems if anything that support if flowing to VOX.  It could be the flows are more complex then that. 

[Velasco]

The amount of voters that PSOE can recover from Podemos is limited. There are former PSOE voters among the 5 million who voted Podemos in 2015 and 2016, but also: young voters, abstentionists, alternative left supporters and peripheral nationalists. Some of these groups are very unlikely to back PSOE. In case Podemos collapses, many disillusioned voters would go to abstention. Actually that poll suggests a massive abstention of left-wing voters, even a worse scenario than the outcome of the Andalusian elections. It's worth noting that the increase in raw numbers of the parties right of the centre was very small in Andalusia. The result was more the consequence of 700,000 left-wing voters staying at home. On the other hand, this fluctuation is logical given the apparent implosion of Podemos. Depending on how the crisis evolves, Podemos may recover or collapse definitely. There are other possibilities, such as the surge of a new party in the left. The bold move of Carmena and Errejón in Madrid may end being a revulsive or a catastrophe. The months before the May elections will be very long. It's nearly impossible to predict the outcome now.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, an interesting thing is the relation between turnout and left wing votes.

The Spanish left has only won once with turnout below 70% (in 1989, with 69.9% turnout; I'm not counting 2016 as a win).

I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).

[Velasco]

Podemos leadership reconsiders after the resignation of Ramón Espinar. Spokeswoman in Congress Irene Montero, who is acting as interim leader while her partner Pablo Iglesias is on paternity leave, says that Podemos will talk with Errejón  before the elections. In the days following the release of the joint letter of Carmena and Errejón, Montero stated that the bridges were broken. There is division in Podemos between the supporters of a deal with Errejón (unitary list) and the supporters of running against Más Madrid in coalition with IU. Some people in Podemos think that running against Errejón would be a "suicide", but there are hardliners opposed to a deal with the "traitor" and Pablo Iglesias has been looking unsuccessfully for an independent on the top of a rival list. The negotiations will be complicated in any case.

I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).

Disagree. We can't go back to 2008 pretending that the global crisis, its harsh impact in Spain and the 15M movement never happened. Podemos was born as the heir party of said movement and all the people coming from there (the "Futurless Youth") is not likely to back PSOE. Because of this and because the PSOE's strategy is trying to occupy the centre (deserted by Cs and PP), the total collapse of Podemos is not in the PSOE's interest.

The result in Andalusia was the combination of a depressed left wing turnout with a high mobilization of right wing voters. Additionally, there was a reconfiguration of the space right of the centre: PP losing ground, Cs increasing and the Vox surge

[Skye]

Hey, I found this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/begonavillacis/status/1090173178478034945

How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.

[Velasco]

Hey, I found this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/begonavillacis/status/1090173178478034945

How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.

I guess you are referring to the Invymark poll for Telemadrid. The pollster is OK, but the sample size is way too small (only 400) and the margin of error higher than usual.

Anyway Madrid looks like an uphill battle for the left, even with an exceptional candidate like Manuela Carmena. She is a good mayor who has reduced the nunicipal debt left by the PP administrations, as well she has implemented good policies on environment and citizen participation (among others). I think her list will come first easily (the right wing vote is splitted in three), but it will be difficult to repeat the left-wing majority in a city that leans to the right and in the present circumstances. On the other hand, Begoña Villacis won't hesitate in replicating the Triple Alliance of Andalusia. However,  Carmena is the only one who can replicate the 2015 miracle. She needs a big mobilization of left-wing and progressive voters. It's going to be very hard, but not imposible

[Former President tack50]

Uphill battle is putting it lightly IMO. Madrid is close to being a lost cause (a shame, Carmena is genuinely popular and probably the best Podemos mayor, but Madrid is just too conservative). 

The only way for Carmena to be reelected is if Cs, PP and Vox fail to reach an agreement, in that case she automatically becomes mayor 2 months after the election or something like that. But barring a very weak minority government or something weird like Cs supporting Carmena I don't think she survives.

I do agree Carmena is the only hope (even if it's a very faint one). Also, keep in mind that PSOE in Madrid city has pretty much disappeared, it wouldn't be unthinkable (although it's unlikely) that PSOE falls below the 5% threshold.

Remember we are headed for a right wing landslide (if we believe polling); somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. I don't know how many mayors are hopless causes but for reference we could look at the 2011 defeat as a worst case scenario:

Back in 2011 out of the 104 municipalities that are provincial capitals or have a population over 75000; the left held 22 for PSOE; 1 for Bildu, 1 for BNG and 1 for a tiny, probably local party (the Greens in Orihuela); for a total of 25 left wing mayors.

Currently out of the 107 muncipalities with the same specifications, the left holds 44 for PSOE, 7 for Podemos, 3 for IU, 1-2 for a tiny or local parties (the Greens in Torrevieja and maybe MCC in Cartagena), 1 for ERC, 1 for NCa, 1 for BNG, 1 for Compromís, 1 for Bildu for a total of 60-61 left wing mayors.

So I'd say that around 15 big city mayors will lose. And the most likely ones are the ones that have tiny majorities to begin with (like Carmena)

Anyways the poll seems good, it's not an internal and the result is believable but with a small sample and a big margin of error.

[Velasco]

Carmena is not a Podemos mayor: she is an independent who was backed by Podemos. She always remarks her independence from party structures and this is one of her main assets, besides her competence and many other personal qualities (sorry, I'm a bit of a fan and this is not usual in me). Currently she's allied with a dissident of that party and her relationship with the Podemos leadership is frozen. Furthermore, all the Podemos councilors are suspended from membership: at this moment the Pablo Iglesias party is not part of the local government. If Carnena was the typical candidate with a party affiliation, I would say she's done and has no chance at all. Given that she's exceptional and she's an independent who can appeal a broader base, I think there's still a small ray of light. Anyway it's more likely that Begoña Villacis becomes the next mayor with the support of PP and the far right VOX. At least that's what the polls say. Often predictions hold true, but sometimes there's room for surprise. In 2015 Carmena was polling a distant second behind Aguirre, but the campaign boosted her popularity (she was little known before) and came very close on election night.

Indeed, we are heading to a right wing nationalist majority according to the polls. It'd be depressing if it wasn't for the extreme volatility of the political situation. If we go a little time back, we could remember that Podemos was sunken in the polls months before the 2015 general rlections (Cs boosted after its success in the Catalonia), in which the purple party got more than 20% from the scratch and was the moral victor. Pedro Sánchez was deemed a corpse when he was ousted from party leadership and he is now the PM...

[Velasco]

Former coach of the Spanish basketball team Pepu Hernández is the candidate picked by Pedro Sánchez to run for the mayoralty of Madrid. Hernández coached the national team that won the 2006 World Championship in Japan. He was also the coach of Estudiantes, a team based in Madrid. Pedro Sánchez  is a big fan of basketball and played in Estudiantes as a teenager, from there their friendship. Hernández is an independent. At first he will have to run in the primary election scheduled on March 9 and there's another candidate who wants the nomination: Manuel de la Rocha, a member of the left wing faction. PSOE senior figures like Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Cristina Narbona, as well as Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, had previously rejected to run in Madrid. The PSOE faces difficulties in the city of Madrid after four years in the shadow of Carmena, supporting her investiture as mayor without taking place in local government. PSOE spokeswoman in Madrid relativized the value of the last poll placing socialists in 5th position behind Vox, saying that the margin of error is huge and it was conducted before "political events that have modified reality": alliance between Carmena and  Errejón, outbreak of the Podemos crisis.

Confirmed candidates so far:

Manuela Carmena (Más Madrid)
Begoña Villacís (Ciudadanos)
José Luis Martínez Almeida (PP)

[Velasco]

Fresh poll for the Madrid regional election

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/candidatura-Errejon-superaria-Podemos-gobernar_0_862664557.html

PSOE 21.4% 30 seats
PP 20 8% 29 seats
Cs 19.2% 27 seats
Más Madrid 10.5% 15 seats
Podemos 9% 12 seats
Vox 8.4% 12 seats
IU 5.3% 7 seats

Triple Alliance (PP-Cs-Vox) 48.4% 68 seats
Left (PSOE, Más Madrid,  Podemos, IU) 46.2% 64 seats

Some people begins to speculate on the 'Big Centre' or 'Macron' alliance between PSOE, Cs and Más Madrid (51.1% 72 seats). I don't see it at this stage, but who knows...

There was a meeting of the Podemos' Citizen Council yesterday. It's the equivalent of an executive committee and there is a majority of Pablo Iglesias supporters (Iglesias 37, Errejon 23, Anticapitalistas 2). Iglesias is on paternity leave and participated telematically. Previously he posted a long text in Facebook. Iglesias wrote that he's hurt and upset  but, despite everything, Errejon is not a traitor and he must be an ally. This means Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle consider Errejon is not in Podemos anymore, but they acknowledge a deal with Más Madrid on a joint list is necessary. Errejon didn't attend in order to avoid conflict, after Irene Montero said she preferred that Errejon was not present in the council meeeting. Other members of the Errejon faction attended anyway. The council agreed a route map for alliances. Podemos will hold primaries first, then there will be a negotiation with 'preferent partners' IU and Equo. The negotiation between Unidos Podemos and Más Madrid would be the last step...

The rift between Iglesias abd Errejon is very deep and possibly IU is going to play an important role in the negotiations for a joint list

[Velasco]

Celeste-Tel poll for the Madrid local elections

Más Madrid 28.4% 18 councilors (-2)
PP 21.9% 13 councilors (-8)
Cs 21.8% 13 councilors (+6)
PSOE 13.7% 8 councilors (-1)
VOX 8.2% 5 councilors (+5)
IU 2.3% nc (-)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Carmena-elecciones-Madrid-PSOE-Ciudadanos_0_863014431.html

[Mike88]

NC-Report poll for the Community of Madrid:

21.3% PP, 31 seats
20.4% PSOE, 30
18.9% C's, 27
13.2% Más Madrid, 19
10.4% Vox, 15
  7.4% UP, 10
  8.4% Others

Invymark poll for la Sexta TV:

23.9% PSOE, 96 seats
21.3% PP, 91
20.9% C's, 76
13.5% UP, 35
11.2% Vox, 28
  9.4% Others, 24

CIS poll: (lol)

29.9% PSOE
17.7% C's
15.4% UP
14.9% PP
  6.5% Vox
  4.7% ERC
  1.7% PACMA
  1.3% PNV
  1.1% Bildu
  1.0% PDeCAT
  0.2% CC
  5.6% Others

[Former President tack50]

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup

[Mike88]

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup

The CIS debacle is just ridiculous. Anyway, i think that, in the future, a PSOE/C's coalition may be possible, but currently i think Sanchéz is an impossible pill for many C's voters to swallow. If, in the future, a more centrist/moderate PSOE leader emerges, C's could find themselves more "cozy" with PSOE rather than with PP.

The Spanish 2019 elections will probably be one of the most unpredictable ever. In many cities and communities there is a very close 3 way race between PSOE/PP/C's and a huge surge of Vox.