Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pivaru]

New Ipec statewide polls for the presidential race:

São Paulo:
Lula (PT) - 44%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 28%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 6%
Simone Tebet - 5%
Others - 3%
Blank/null - 8%
Don't know - 6%

Minas Gerais:
Lula (PT) - 46%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 30%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 5%
Simone Tebet - 4%
Others - 2%
Blank/null - 8%
Don't know - 5%

Rio de Janeiro:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 39%
Lula (PT) - 38%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 6%
Simone Tebet - 4%
Others - 1%
Blank/null - 6%
Don't know - 5%

Pernambuco:
Lula (PT) - 62%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 22%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 5%
Simone Tebet - 2%
Others - 1%
Blank/null - 3%
Don't know - 4%

Distrito Federal:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 42%
Lula (PT) - 29%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 10%
Simone Tebet - 6%
Others - 2%
Blank/null - 7%
Don't know - 4%

This is the first time Bolsonaro appears in an Ipec poll leading in Rio, but I don't think that's particularly surprising since he represented the state before becoming president. Rio was the birthplace of Bolsonarismo. In any case, Bolsonaro's newly found slight lead there is overshadowed by Lula increasing his lead in São Paulo and Minas (Lula grew 4% and 1%, respectively, Bolsonaro shrunk 3% in SP and didn't change in Minas)

[Pivaru]

Ipec also released polls for some statewide races, I'm putting them inside spoilers so it doesn't take too much space.

Rio de Janeiro:

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Governor:
1st Round:
Claudio Casto (PL, supported by Bolsonaro, incumbent) - 37% (+11)
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, supported by Lula)  - 26% (+3)
Rodrigo Neves (PDT, supported by Ciro) - 7% (+1)
Others - 11%
Blank/null - 13% (-6)
Don't know/didn't answer - 10% (-6)

2nd Round:
Claudio Castro (PL) - 43% (+5)
Marcelo Freixo (PSB) - 31% (-4)
Blank/null - 16% (-1)
Don't know/didn't answer - 10% (-1)

Senator:
Romário (PL, supports Bolsonaro, incumbent) - 32% (+2)
Clarissa Garotinha (UNIÃO, supports Bolsonaro) - 8% (+3)
Alessandro Molon (PSB, supports Lula) - 7% (-1)
Cabo Daciolo (PDT) - 7% (+1)
Andre Ceciliano (PT, supported by Lula) - 7% (+2)
Daniel Silveira (PTB, supports Bolsonaro, barred from running by the court today) - 6% (-1)
Others - 5%
Blank/null - 12% (-5)
Don't know/didn't answer - 16% (-2)

São Paulo:

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Governor:
1st Round:
Fernando Haddad (PT, supported by Lula) - 36% (+4)
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos, supported by Bolsonaro) - 21% (+4)
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB, incumbent) - 14% (+4)
Others - 7%
Blank/null - 10% (-5)
Don't know/didn't answer - 12% (-8)

2nd Round:
Tarcisio vs Haddad:
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 43% (-4)
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 32% (+1)
Blank/null - 15% (+3)
Don't know/didn't answer - 10% (-)

Garcia vs Haddad:
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 42 (-3)
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) - 31 (+2)
Blank/null - 17% (+1)
Don't know/didn't answer - 11% (+1)

Tarcisio vs Garcia:
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) - 32% (+4)
Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 31% (-)
Blank/null - 22% (-)
Don't know/didn't answer - 16% (-3)

Minas Gerais:

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Governor:
1st Round:
Romeu Zema (Novo, not officially supported by Bolsonaro, but close to him, incumbent) - 47% (+3)
Alexandre Kalil (PSD, supported by Lula) - 31% (+7)
Carlos Viana (PL, supported by Bolsonaro) - 2% (-1)
Others - 4%
Blank/null - 8% (-3)
Don't know/didn't answer - 8% (-5)

2nd Round:
Romeu Zema (Novo) -  52% (-)
Alexandre Kalil (PSD) - 34% (+4)
Blank/null - 9% (-1)
Don't know/didn't answer - 6% (-3)

Senator:
Cleitinho (PSC, supports Bolsonaro) - 18% (+3)
Alexandre Silveira (PSD, supported by Lula, incumbent) - 13% (+3)
Marcelo Aro (PP, supported by Zema) - 10% (+5)
Others - 16%
Blank/null - 15% (-4)
Don't know/didn't answer - 29% (-6)

Pernambuco:

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Governor:
Marilia Arraes (Solidariedade, supports Lula) - 38% (+5)
Raquel Lyra (PSDB) - 13% (+1)
Anderson Ferreira (PL, supported by Bolsonaro) - 12% (+1)
Danilo Cabral (PSB, supported by Lula) - 8% (-)
Miguel Coelho (UNIÃO) - 8% (-1)
Others - 5%
Blank/null - 8% (-5)
Don't know/didn't answer - 8% (-1)

Senator:
Teresa Leitão (PT, supported by Lula) - 24% (+9)
André de Paula (PSD, supported by Marilia) - 10% (-3)
Guilherme Coelho (PSDB) - 9% (-1)
Gilson Machado (PL, supported by Bolsonaro) - 9% (+2)
Others - 13%
Blank/null - 19% (-4)
Don't know/didn't answer - 17% (-1)

Distrito Federal:

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Governor:
Ibaneis Rocha (MDB, supported by Bolsonaro, incumbent) - 46% (+5)
Octavio Rocha (PSD) - 9% (-)
Leila do Volei (PDT, supported by Ciro) - 9% (-)
Leandro Grass (PV, supported by Lula) - 8% (+1)
Others - 8%
Blank/null - 11% (-2)
Don't know/didn't answer - 9% (-2)

Gubernatorial and senatorial polls are certainly not the "be all end all" at this point in the campaign, a lot of people tend to decide their votes pretty close to the election (for example, in 2018, Zema had 5% in early September, but then during the last week, he jumped to 15% and subsequently, got 41% of the vote on election day). That said, I guess they can still reveal information about who to pay attention and reveal some general trends.

I've seen quite a few people being very optimistic about São Paulo, but I'm still kinda skeptical about Haddad winning. Most people are just now getting to know Garcia and Tarcisio, it seems to me that they probably have more room to grow than Haddad, who is already very well known due to his 2018 presidential run. Haddad is also the candidate who currently has the highest rejection levels among the paulista electorate.

A second round seems likely in São Paulo and it doesn't seem like a huge stretch to imagine the opposition to PT and Haddad coalescing around whoever faces him there. Of course, this doesn't mean Haddad is done, this may just be the best chance PT has had of winning the state government of São Paulo since the end of the military regime, but I doubt it will be as easy as some people in the left wing sphere of the Brazilian internet seem to be suggesting.

Kalil grew a lot in Minas since the last Ipec poll, mostly because the people who live in the interior are getting to know him and associating the guy with Lula. That said, I don't think just being associated to Lula will be enough to put Kalil over the top, Zema is a pretty popular governor (48% approval rating according to Ipec, only 19% of people disapprove of him), a lot of people seem to see him as "the guy who got the state to get back to paying government workers on day" and he has done a fairly effective job at walking the line between being friendly with Bolsonaro but also seeming independent enough to win the votes from anti-Bolsonaro center-right, centrist and even center-left voters.

Different from São Paulo, Minas seems to be heading towards a one turn election, mostly because there are only two candidates with a really expressive share of the vote. Really, a second round will only happen if Viana is able to siphon enough Zema votes to get him below the threshold. His campaign primordially consists of saying "I'm the Bolsonaro guy, if you like Bolsonaro, vote for me! Look at this video, that's me giving a speech while Bolsonaro is by my side, pretty cool huh?". The guy still has about a month, but I'm certainly not betting on him.

And as for Rio, I almost feel bad for the left there, until I remember that the party leaderships very often put themselves in these kinds of situations. It's endearing how they are able to consistently shoot themselves in the foot. If Freixo does end up losing, maybe they'll learn some kind of lesson. Nah, who am I kidding? Of course they won't.

[Pivaru]

New Datafolha poll, data gathered between September 8 and 9

1st Round:
Lula (PT) - 45% (-)
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 34% (+2)
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 7% (-2)
Simone Tebet (MDB) - 5% (-)
Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 1% (-)
Blank/null - 4% (-)
Don't know - 3% (+1)

Runoff
Lula (PT) - 53% (-)
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 39% (+1)
Blank/null - 7% (-1)
Don't know - 2% (+1)

51% of voters say they wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro (down 1% from the last Datafolha poll), 39% said the same about Lula (no change from the last poll)

[Pivaru]

New Datafolha pool:

Lula (PT) - 45% (+1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 33% (-1)
Ciro (PDT) - 8% (+1)
Tebet (MDB) - 5% (-)
Soraya (UNIÃO) - 2% (+1)
Blank/null - 4% (-)
Don't know/didn't answer - 2% (-1)

2nd round:
Lula (PT) - 53% (+1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 38% (-1)

Stability as always. I share Red Velvet's feeling that this election is a lot more boring than I expected. At this point I think I'm looking more at some of the gubernatorial races tbh.

[Pivaru]

I trust Globo way more as serious TV channel to not call this Kelmo guy

Pretty sure they are legally obligated to call him. Every party which has at least 5 representatives in congress has to be invited and his party, PTB, just barely makes the cut (they have exactly 5, 3 deputies and 2 senators). If we're being real here, that's really the only reason D'Avila and Thronicke are also invited for the debates.

I didn't watch today's debate but I assume the new priest guy must have just tried to help Bolsonaro, I mean, being rabid bolsonaristas is pretty much the only thing PTB has had going  for it for the past 4 years.

[Pivaru]

Online rumors are saying that the DATAFOLHA poll that will be out later today has been leaked.

Lula 49% (+2)
Bolsonaro 32% (-1)
Tebet 6% (+1)
Ciro 4% (-3)

Let’s wait a bit more if this leak confirms itself. But considering it’s not even valid votes, shows easy victory on 1st round for Lula with around 52%-53% I am guessing.

Valid votes:
Lula - 50%
Bolsonaro - 36%
Ciro - 6%
Tebet - 5%
Thronicke - 1%

Total votes:
Lula - 48%
Bolsonaro - 34%
Ciro - 6%
Tebet - 5%
Thronicke - 1%
Blank/Null - 3%
Don't know - 2%

2nd round:
Lula - 54%
Bolsonaro - 39%

[Pivaru]

I'm nervous. Hopefully Lula can win outright tomorrow. Will the results be released slowly like they are in the US, or all at once?

The results should be known pretty quickly, Ipec won't even make an exit poll this time around because it's just not worth it with how quickly the results come.

[Pivaru]

From what I understand, only in Rio are PT and PSB divided, right? Across the rest of the country, they seem to be supporting the same Senate and Governor candidates.

They're also divided in Rio Grande do Norte, PSB is running Rafael Motta for the senate and PT is supporting Carlos Eduardo, who is from PDT. There is a non zero chance this could make Rogério Marinho, Bolsonaro's former minister of regional development, win, though I most certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Pretty sure they're also divided in other states, but I can't recall which ones (I remember PSB supports Alvaro Dias in Paraná, not sure who PT supports though).

[Pivaru]

Bolsonaro's former minister of women, family and human rights, Damares Alves has won the senate election in Distrito Federal, defeating Flavia Arruda (who was also a bolsonarista, jsut for the record). His former minister of agriculture, Tereza Cristina has also won a senate seat, in Mato Grosso do Sul, defeating Bolsonaro's former health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who broke with Bolsonaro during the pandemic.

These are Bolsonaro's first victories in the night.

[Pivaru]

In Paraná, the governor Ratinho Jr has just been reelected with with almost 70% of the vote, he supported Bolsonaro. The second place was the PT candidate, Roberto Requião, with 25,9%.

The senate race still is not decided, but Sergio Moro is leading and the incumbent, Alvaro Dias, is in third, he seems to be underperforming so far.

[Pivaru]

A bit more than 50% of the vote counted in São Paulo.

Tarcisio (Bolsonaro's candidate) is leading with 43,8%, Haddad (Lula's candidate) is in second with 34,2%, the incumbent governor, Rodrigo Garcia, from PSDB, has 18,5%. It seems this really is the end of PSDB's dominance in São Paulo and their role as a major party, they really have been demoted to the status of one more "centrão" party.

In the senate, Bolsonaro's candidate, Marcos Pontes, has 51,7% and the second place is Marcio França, Lula's candidate and former governor, with 34,5%.

The bolsonaristas are overperforming in the statewide races here

[Pivaru]

In Espirito Santo there'll be a second round between Renato Casagrande (PSB) and Carlos Manato (PL).

Casagrande 47,1%
Manato 38,5%

Pre-election polls were showing Casagrande with almost 60% of the vote, quite the underperformance.

Bolsonaro's ally, Magno Malta, is leading in the senate, he seems very likely to win here unfortunately.

[Pivaru]

In Mato Grosso do Sul, Capitão Contar (PRTB) and Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) will both advance to the second round in the gubernatorial race. Both support Bolsonaro.

[Pivaru]

In Tocantins, the incumbent governor Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicanos) has been reelected.

[Pivaru]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

It reminds me of 2002, in that election petistas were optimistic about José Genoino winning, turns out he was defeated handily by Alckmin in the second round. I don't think Tarcisio will win by as much Alckmin did back then, but I do think Haddad is the new Genoino.

I guess he'll probably get to be a minister serving under Lula if he does lose.

[Pivaru]

Sergio Moro has just been elected senator in Paraná, unseating his former ally Álvaro Dias and overperforming all the polls.

[Pivaru]

Hamilton Mourão, the current vice president, has won a Senate seat in Rio Grande do Sul.

[Pivaru]

The race in Minas Gerais has been called, Zema has been reelected. Kalil underperformed and Zema is almost at the same number he was given in some of yesterday's polls (nearly 57%). Keep an eye on him, he's a contender for 2026. Bolsonaro's ally, Cleitinho, also seems to have won in the senate, defeating the incumbent candidate, who was a Lula ally.

[Pivaru]

In Rio Grande do Norte, the left split the vote between former Natal mayor Carlos Eduardo and federal deputy Rafael Motta and the state ended up electing a Bolsonaro ally, his former minister Rogerio Marinho.

Eduardo was supposed to win by an 11% margin according to yesterday's polls.

[Pivaru]

Everything is pointing to Romario being reelected for the senate in Rio de Janeiro. If PT hadn't run the Ceciliano guy, they could have won.

(Romario had 29%, Molon 21%, Ceciliano 12%)

[Pivaru]

Everything is pointing to Romario being reelected for the senate in Rio de Janeiro. If PT hadn't run the Ceciliano guy, they could have won.

(Romario had 29%, Molon 21%, Ceciliano 12%)

They have runoffs for some elections but others are FPTP?

Yeah, only elections for the executive* there's a 2nd round, in congressional elections, there's only one FPTP race.

*for mayor it depends on the size of the city

[Pivaru]

Just looked at the Pernambuco numbers.

Marilia Arraes is really underperforming her polling numbers, only 23% of the vote (she had 38% in yesterday's polls). The second place is Raquel Lyra, from PSDB, with 21%, her husband died today, so that may have played a role.

On other news, Bolsonaro's chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira just mocked the polls on twitter and asked Bolsonaro voters to not answer them. Not surprised.

[Pivaru]

The Santa Catarina gubernatorial race is going to the second round, Jorginho Melo, from PL and Décio Lima, from PT will advance. The incumbent governor, Carlos Moises is out. Melo is obviously very favored.

[Pivaru]

In Rio Grande do Sul, the race is going to the second round, Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), a former Bolsonaro minister and Eduardo Leite (PSDB), the former governor who resigned to run for president, will advance. Leite only had 2000 more votes than the third place candidate.

If Leite wins, he'll be the only PSDB candidate in the country if I'm not mistaken.

[Pivaru]

Omar Aziz, from PSD, has been reelected for his senate seat in Amazonas, narrowly defeating the Bolsonaro supported candidate. This was the last senate seat to be called.