Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Gass3268]

2018 Congressional Primary Calendar (Poll Closing Times - Eastern Time):

Texas: Mar 6 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Illinois: March 20 (8:00 PM)

Indiana: May 8 (6:00 PM | 7:00 PM)
North Carolina: May 8 (7:30 PM)
Ohio: May 8 (7:30 PM)
West Virginia: May 8 (7:30 PM)

Idaho: May 15 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
Nebraska: May 15 (9:00 PM)
Oregon: May 15 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
Pennsylvania: May 15 (8:00 PM)

Arkansas: May 22 (8:30 PM)
Georgia: May 22 (7:00 PM)
Kentucky: May 22 (6:00 PM | 7:00 PM)
Texas (Runoff): May 22 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Alabama: June 5 (8:00 PM)
California: June 5 (11:00 PM)
Iowa: June 5 (10:00 PM)
Mississippi: June 5 (8:00 PM)
Montana: June 5 (10:00 PM)
New Jersey: June 5 (8:00 PM)
New Mexico: June 5 (9:00 PM)
South Dakota: June 5 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Maine: June 12 (8:00 PM)
Nevada: June 12 (10:00 PM)
North Dakota: June 12 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
South Carolina: June 12 (7:00 PM)
Virginia: June 12 (7:00 PM)

Arkansas (Runoff): June 19 (8:30 PM)
District of Columbia: June 19 (8:00 PM)

Colorado: June 26 (9:00 PM)
Maryland: June 26 (8:00 PM)
Mississippi (Runoff): June 26 (8:00 PM)
New York: June 26 (9:00 PM)
Oklahoma: June 26 (8:00 PM)
South Carolina (Runoff): June 26 (7:00 PM)
Utah: June 26 (10:00 PM)

Alabama (Runoff): July 17 (8:00 PM)

Georgia (Runoff): July 24 (7:00 PM)

Tennessee: Aug. 2 (Thursday) (8:00 PM)

Kansas: Aug. 7 (8:00 | 9:00 PM)
Michigan: Aug. 7 (8:00 | 9:00 PM)
Missouri: Aug. 7 (8:00 PM)
Washington: Aug. 7 (11:00 PM)

Hawaii: Aug. 11 (Saturday) (12:00 AM)

Connecticut: Aug. 14 (8:00 PM)
Minnesota: Aug. 14 (9:00 PM)
Vermont: Aug. 14 (7:00 PM)
Wisconsin: Aug. 14 (9:00 PM)

Alaska: Aug. 21 (12:00 AM | 1:00 AM)
Wyoming: Aug. 21 (9:00 PM)

Arizona: Aug. 28 (10:00 PM)
Florida: Aug. 28 (7:00 | 8:00 PM)
Oklahoma (Runoff): Aug. 28 (8:00 PM)

Massachusetts: Sept. 4 (8:00 PM)

Delaware: Sept. 6 (8:00 PM)

New Hampshire: Sept. 11 (8:00 PM)


Rhode Island: Sept. 12 (Wednesday) (8:00 PM)

Louisiana: Nov. 6 (9:00 PM)

Louisiana (Runoff): Dec. 8 (9:00 PM)

Link To New York Times Results Page

[Gass3268]

From DDHQ:

[Gass3268]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: TX-01 R:

89% Louie Gohmert*   9%Anthony Culler      <1%

Big if true

[Gass3268]

Beto is dominating in the suburban counties.

[Gass3268]

Beto is currently on Chris Hayes' show on MSNBC.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Also Democrats have almost already topped their 2014 Senate Primary Turnout with only 1% of precincts and some early vote.

[Gass3268]

lol @ the concern trolls running around in this thread:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971204285156519936

this guy is doing the same thing mcdonald did for the general election. you'll see when november comes how important is special election in oklahoma house

What the heck are you talking about?

[Gass3268]

How dare you sully the name of Michael MacDonald, the formula of predicting elections based off of anecdotal turnout reports and early voting was pure genius!!

All he did was report and provide graphs of the early vote. There was no formula.

[Gass3268]

Um, wtf is happening in the Sherman county GOP senate primary?

Probably a reporting error.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Did anyone else see the vote count for Travis county for both parties? wow,

That's why TX-21 is close.

[Gass3268]

I mean come on VA has virtually no early voting and they can finish counting in under 3 hours.

Texas also has 3.3x the population of Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Cruz is already running ad calling O Rourke Robert

Pretty funny coming from Rafael

[Gass3268]

Panic sweeping through Democratic circles --->

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/971226158112047107

TX was always fools gold, and this is the last time I'm paying attention to these early voting reports. How many times have people been burned by these EV anecdotals?

The early voting reports said that Democratic turnout was more than double what it was in 2014. Nothing about that is being disproven today.

[Gass3268]

Democrats could double their turnout from 2014, but there is no enthusiasm. HAHAHA!

[Gass3268]

What going on in Ford county?

Republicans didn't hold a primary there. That happens in Texas.

[Gass3268]

What going on in Ford county?

Republicans didn't hold a primary there. That happens in Texas.

Is that not unconstitutional?

County party didn't have enough resources to hold the primary.

[Gass3268]

Democrats really didn't do that bad last night:


Source

Guess what?!? The early vote in TX's 15 largest counties were predictive!

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Suburan Democrats are pumped to vote!

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[Gass3268]

Source

[Gass3268]

Some more maps from Miles:





Source

[Gass3268]

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A couple other fringe competitive districts that I calculated:

TX-02 (North Harris County): 46,140 GOP, 28,598 Dem
TX-03 (Collin County): 53,712 GOP, 31,181 Dem
TX-06 (Tarrant County-South Metroplex): 45,519 GOP, 29,389 Dem   
TX-21 (Austin-San Antonio-Hill Country): 65,832 GOP, 50,664 Dem

[Gass3268]

So, if you are DCCC you can't be happy. And if you're a democrat you have to ask yourself how stupid are these people. Moser wouldn't head to the runoff if it wasn't for DCCC and now I think she has solid chance in a runoff too, cause the election day vote was essentialy tied.

It was a good night for progressives with Moser and probably Trevino heading to runoff.

The best result for Dems and the best chance for a pickup is TX-23. I don't see TX-07 flipping, they will have a good candidate in TX-32 but still this is lean R district. So, one pickup out of Texas looks the most reasonable outcome for now.

I honestly believe that had the DCCC not intervened, Moser and Westin would have switched places. Before the DCCC dump, the Westin campaign was certain it would be Fletcher vs Westin.

I’m honestly pretty skeptical that the opposition research dump had much of an impact one way or the other.  I’m also not convinced that Moser has a realistic chance of winning the run-off, but we shall see.  On the bright side, I’m feeling much more optimistic about our chances of unseating Hurd and Sessions than I had been before the primary (especially Hurd).

Apparently there was a noticeable uptick for Moser in election day voting vs early voting and absentee voting and Westin led Moser in absentee voting: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/7/17084808/dccc-laura-moser-texas-democratic-primary-2018

Yes the DCCC should be concerned with these primary. Democratic primary voters have always been known to be pragmatic and calculated. I hope the Our Revolution and Justice crowd don't hurt our chances this year.

I do t know about *concerned* but I hope they at least learned their lesson

In the future if they want to squelch a primary campaign they should just dump some money into a shady SuperPac and let them do the dirty work. /s

[Gass3268]

Any way we can get this stickied? Seems to make sense to have one giant results thread.

[Gass3268]

So excited for Democrats to waste millions in Texas for nothing but virtue victories. I doubt they have a chance at any seat other than Hurd's

lol