UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Has any party other than Labour been actively campaigning or are they fielding paper candidates?

Labour and the Conservatives have competitive council seats up in May so will be campaigning a lot. The Greens are supposedly targeting a ward within the constituency so will presumably focus their entire effort in that one area. The Lib Dems have council seats elsewhere to focus on, while the various minor parties and independents will have minimal campaigning infrastructure even if they want to properly campaign.

Shouldn't the lib Dems be priming up their by election machine again, hoping to prove they can win against both labour and the tories

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.

You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.

That would be quite funny ngl.

However I would inevitably crash a car or start a devastating fire or say something outrageous whilst campaigning and end up (in)famous and/or in prison.

Don't worry Atlas will be willing to write a letter of support in favour of you during your sentecing.
*Guranteeing you the death penatly

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

_{*And not even the worst bits!}

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.

Wait what ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

_{*And not even the worst bits!}

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.

Wait what ?

I think the poster of that is themselves an occasional contributor

I was wondering about the voteukt connection to the Wakefield controversy

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well here's another one. Will the circumstances of the resignation hurt the tories hopes of holding it ?

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1520375657573892096

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If this is a resigning issue, then I expect many more by-elections this year, given that there are rumours of far greater misdeeds.

Ah, but many of those in question feel no shame about what they have done, whereas the former Upstanding Member for Tiverton and Honiton is obviously extremely embarrassed. Or at least his friends and family are.

Or perhaps he'd rather not journalists start digging around lest they find anything else more damaging. That's the vibe I got from just how abrupt it was.

Maybe the investigators asked for his internet browsing history and he decided resigning now was preferable to giving that up and having it leaked.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

I find it interesting how it's escalated to threats of legal action and over the top hysterics about  personal safety and threats. A real tempest in a teacup.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

Lets hope they don't encounter each other at the count tomorrow...

Update - One of the Lib Dem activists has posted that a newly elected Labour councillor got a restraining order against a fellow poster and Conservative councillor.

I am calling for a complete and total shutdown of Wakefield until we figure out what the hell is going on!

I hope that the good residents of Wakefield are aware of what their deputy council leader get's up to on an obscure psephology forum with other local canidates. I think a local paper should be informed about this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Both posts should be a reference point!

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

huh, Would that Help the Lib-Dems/Labour by splitting the tory vote or hurt them by providing a conservative option without Boris's Baggage ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder if the date of 23 June holds any kind of symbolic significance that the Tories could desperately point to...

Ah - that’s both the day the EU referendum was held, and the date Johnson announced a significant rollback of COVID restrictions in 2020. You think they’d really try and pull the Farage “Freedom/Independence Day” card?

They really would have to be desperate…

somehow I don't think visibly ripping open the brexit debate again is going to be very popular with voters who don't have a real die-hard stance on this issue.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

Military officers being Liberal Democrats is a sterotype ? I thought that was a solidly conservative group.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

Military officers being Liberal Democrats is a sterotype ? I thought that was a solidly conservative group.

Paddy "SAS" Ashdown's ghost would like a word.

He was a spook, that's different.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.

I suspect very strongly that they will go right up to the spending limit - which for those who don't know is as high as £100,000 for by-elections; which is much higher than for constituency campaigning at a GE - to try to hang on there. It will probably be a very brutal, very nasty campaign.

What will all the money be spent on ? Flyers and online ads loose effectivness at a certain point.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Just ask her to publicaly apologize, let her back in for the rest of the parliment and select someones else last time. Keep her kicked out if she doesn't.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How does Galloway get people to staff his campagin ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It isn't impossible - things only fell apart for them in North Shropshire in the last week or so by most accounts: they might still have lost as the circumstances were really foul and the campaign a shocker, but it would have been relatively tight - but I think at this stage it would surely be too early to be sure. I suppose the thinking is that they can buy their way to a win as the candidate is local? I don't know.

Shouldn't it be easy enough for the Liberal Democrats to fundraise the money they need to compete ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If one wishes for a feel of what farmers think and feel then there is in fact an internet forum for British farmers that has an active politics board on it.

which forum ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

It's been suggested that the former Lib Dem MP could be Lembit Öpik.  That said the suggested majority seems quite plausible.

Hasn't he pretty thougrily burned his bridges with the Party ? why would he have the poll figures ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Do visits by high profile figures tend to make much difference in by elections ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election  was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This is why by-elections are great. Would a US special Election for TX-98 have something this hilarious?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1537448702016737280

If Texas had 98 or more districts, the US would have more than a thousands districts and you'd get some real whackso running for them. Ironicaly even with that, the average US congrssional district would be more than 3 times more populous than the the average westminster constituency.