UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 141570 times)
Blair
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« Reply #1125 on: April 30, 2022, 07:45:26 AM »
« edited: April 30, 2022, 07:49:54 AM by Blair »

Hahah.

To think two weeks ago they thought it was good politics to bash the bishop.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1126 on: April 30, 2022, 08:20:31 AM »

Well here's another one. Will the circumstances of the resignation hurt the tories hopes of holding it ?

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Torrain
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« Reply #1127 on: April 30, 2022, 08:51:05 AM »

Well here's another one. Will the circumstances of the resignation hurt the tories hopes of holding it ?

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1520375657573892096

Itís a pretty safe Tory seat - i.e majority over 20,000 since 2015. The closest itís been was a 2,000 vote majority over the Lib Dems in 1997. Labour are typically in second place, since 2015 at least, but the centre-left vote gets pretty badly split.

There is a world where the Conservatives lose the seat, but based on the past few cycles, the Lib Dems would have to stand back, Labour would have to run a strong candidate, and there would have to be significant apathy amongst Conservative voters.

Labour, and Starmer, will most likely be focusing their fire (and funds) on Wakefield at the time, but if they were to win here, it would be quite significant.

Itís actually numerically pretty close to North Shropshire, the seat of Owen Paterson that fell to the Lib Dems (majority of 2,000 in 1997, majority north of 20K over the past decade). Time will tell whether that wild result could be replicated here.
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YL
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« Reply #1128 on: April 30, 2022, 08:56:53 AM »

LOL, that's a by-election cause I didn't have on the bingo sheet.

Lib Dems will probably start as favourites given recent form, though they were third in 2019 (like North Shropshire) and the seat and its main predecessors have been Tory since forever (like, um, North Shropshire); unlike a lot of West Country seats it's never had a Lib Dem MP, though it was close in 1997.  But it needs a 23% swing and presumably some day the Tories will actually choose a sensible candidate for a by-election defence against the Lib Dems.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1129 on: April 30, 2022, 09:00:00 AM »

Are there going to be any Conservative MPs left in the Commons by the end of the year? Open question.
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YL
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« Reply #1130 on: April 30, 2022, 09:01:17 AM »

Itís a pretty safe Tory seat - i.e majority over 20,000 since 2015. The closest itís been was a 2,000 vote majority over the Lib Dems in 1997. Labour are typically in second place, since 2015 at least, but the centre-left vote gets pretty badly split.

There is a world where the Conservatives lose the seat, but based on the past few cycles, the Lib Dems would have to stand back, Labour would have to run a strong candidate, and there would have to be significant apathy amongst Conservative voters.

Labour, and Starmer, will most likely be focusing their fire (and funds) on Wakefield at the time, but if they were to win here, it would be quite significant.

Itís actually numerically pretty close to North Shropshire, the seat of Owen Paterson that fell to the Lib Dems (majority of 2,000 in 1997, majority north of 20K over the past decade). Time will tell whether that wild result could be replicated here.

I think this is another of the sort of seat where Labour may have been second in recent elections, but they can't win, will know this, and will leave it to the Lib Dems, especially as Labour will focus on Wakefield.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1131 on: April 30, 2022, 09:04:26 AM »

It’s a pretty safe Tory seat - i.e majority over 20,000 since 2015. The closest it’s been was a 2,000 vote majority over the Lib Dems in 1997. Labour are typically in second place, since 2015 at least, but the centre-left vote gets pretty badly split.

There is a world where the Conservatives lose the seat, but based on the past few cycles, the Lib Dems would have to stand back, Labour would have to run a strong candidate, and there would have to be significant apathy amongst Conservative voters.

Labour, and Starmer, will most likely be focusing their fire (and funds) on Wakefield at the time, but if they were to win here, it would be quite significant.

It’s actually numerically pretty close to North Shropshire, the seat of Owen Paterson that fell to the Lib Dems (majority of 2,000 in 1997, majority north of 20K over the past decade). Time will tell whether that wild result could be replicated here.

I think this is another of the sort of seat where Labour may have been second in recent elections, but they can't win, will know this, and will leave it to the Lib Dems, especially as Labour will focus on Wakefield.

That’s fair - my assumption was that given Labour’s better performance here recently they might be the natural fire, but letting the Lib Dems fight here while they go for Wakefield is probably a more sound strategy for both parties (and allow both time and resources to be used more effectively - fighting one by-election each while the Conservatives burn time and money defending both).

It is after all the sort of rural agricultural seat that used to flirt with the Lib Dems, before they receded into their current state.
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Blair
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« Reply #1132 on: April 30, 2022, 09:21:45 AM »

Yes this is more of a Lib Dem one just based on the type of seat and the ceiling Labour have. I imagine like Shropshire itís a CLP with 6 members who all hate each other.

I would say the Tories will win it but they lost Shropshire easily which had even less of a liberal tradition and an even stronger history. Iíd guess they both have a similar leave vote too..

The hidden story will be the anger among the farming community that is spreading- theyíve been not only ignored but shat on by the Government several times.
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eadmund
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« Reply #1133 on: April 30, 2022, 11:58:08 AM »

Itís a pretty safe Tory seat - i.e majority over 20,000 since 2015. The closest itís been was a 2,000 vote majority over the Lib Dems in 1997. Labour are typically in second place, since 2015 at least, but the centre-left vote gets pretty badly split.

There is a world where the Conservatives lose the seat, but based on the past few cycles, the Lib Dems would have to stand back, Labour would have to run a strong candidate, and there would have to be significant apathy amongst Conservative voters.

Labour, and Starmer, will most likely be focusing their fire (and funds) on Wakefield at the time, but if they were to win here, it would be quite significant.

Itís actually numerically pretty close to North Shropshire, the seat of Owen Paterson that fell to the Lib Dems (majority of 2,000 in 1997, majority north of 20K over the past decade). Time will tell whether that wild result could be replicated here.

I think this is another of the sort of seat where Labour may have been second in recent elections, but they can't win, will know this, and will leave it to the Lib Dems, especially as Labour will focus on Wakefield.

Thatís fair - my assumption was that given Labourís better performance here recently they might be the natural fire, but letting the Lib Dems fight here while they go for Wakefield is probably a more sound strategy for both parties (and allow both time and resources to be used more effectively - fighting one by-election each while the Conservatives burn time and money defending both).

It is after all the sort of rural agricultural seat that used to flirt with the Lib Dems, before they receded into their current state.

Not that it was the rural agricultural areas in those rural agricultural seats that used to flirt with the Lib Dems.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1134 on: April 30, 2022, 12:11:41 PM »

The trick was always that enough people in those bits did. Keep those Con percentages down as low as you can and then whack them in the towns - that was the usual tactic.
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Blair
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« Reply #1135 on: April 30, 2022, 12:30:57 PM »

The trick was always that enough people in those bits did. Keep those Con percentages down as low as you can and then whack them in the towns - that was the usual tactic.

This is why I screamed and still do when Labour sacked Luke Pollard (who did a lot to raise labours profile on rural issues and made a point of not just talking about buses) under the pretence that Labour doesnít need rural/farming communities to support us. If thereís a bruise punch it!

The fact it was being briefed that Rees Mogg (who ofc pretends to be in touch with the rural gentry) wanted to cut tariffs on food and essentially spit on U.K. farmers shows the approach this Government has.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1136 on: April 30, 2022, 12:56:10 PM »

Tories certainly won't want this byelection given their recent form.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1137 on: April 30, 2022, 01:08:46 PM »

Tories certainly won't want this byelection given their recent form.

Mind you, few things have been less welcome for them than 'looming by-election in a rural seat in the West Country' since the 50s. Always risky...
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TheTide
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« Reply #1138 on: April 30, 2022, 01:29:19 PM »

If this is a resigning issue, then I expect many more by-elections this year, given that there are rumours of far greater misdeeds.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1139 on: April 30, 2022, 02:01:44 PM »

If this is a resigning issue, then I expect many more by-elections this year, given that there are rumours of far greater misdeeds.

Ah, but many of those in question feel no shame about what they have done, whereas the former Upstanding Member for Tiverton and Honiton is obviously extremely embarrassed. Or at least his friends and family are.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #1140 on: April 30, 2022, 02:32:39 PM »

If this is a resigning issue, then I expect many more by-elections this year, given that there are rumours of far greater misdeeds.

Ah, but many of those in question feel no shame about what they have done, whereas the former Upstanding Member for Tiverton and Honiton is obviously extremely embarrassed. Or at least his friends and family are.

Or perhaps he'd rather not journalists start digging around lest they find anything else more damaging. That's the vibe I got from just how abrupt it was.
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Blair
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« Reply #1141 on: April 30, 2022, 03:51:42 PM »

Lol someoneís briefing to the Telegraph that Lord Frost should run in Tiverton.

Less than a month after saying he should run in Wakefield.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1142 on: April 30, 2022, 06:41:35 PM »

If this is a resigning issue, then I expect many more by-elections this year, given that there are rumours of far greater misdeeds.

Ah, but many of those in question feel no shame about what they have done, whereas the former Upstanding Member for Tiverton and Honiton is obviously extremely embarrassed. Or at least his friends and family are.

Or perhaps he'd rather not journalists start digging around lest they find anything else more damaging. That's the vibe I got from just how abrupt it was.
Maybe the investigators asked for his internet browsing history and he decided resigning now was preferable to giving that up and having it leaked.
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Blair
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« Reply #1143 on: May 01, 2022, 02:41:10 AM »

Tory whips worried this might not be the only South West by-electionÖ
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #1144 on: May 01, 2022, 05:41:05 AM »

I wonder if something will happen to cause a by-election in a Remainy part of Cambridgeshire soon...
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Blair
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« Reply #1145 on: May 01, 2022, 09:40:42 AM »

I realised this largely happened because of the Mail on Sunday story which triggered the meeting where this was first leaked.

The Telegraph caused the Paterson by-election as it was a meeting of ex editors led by Charles Moore which led to Boris trying to save him.

Impressive work.
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YL
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« Reply #1146 on: May 01, 2022, 10:07:29 AM »

Tory whips worried this might not be the only South West by-electionÖ

Somerton & Frome, or is there another possibility?

I suppose the Tories might not mind Lib Dem resources having to be spread around a bit.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1147 on: May 01, 2022, 01:50:40 PM »

Actually this raises an interesting question - will they want Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on the same day or a little apart? Get it all out of the way or stagger any blows?
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Blair
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« Reply #1148 on: May 01, 2022, 01:52:21 PM »

Actually this raises an interesting question - will they want Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on the same day or a little apart? Get it all out of the way or stagger any blows?

Same day- I was going to say that Wakefield is the easier defence but that just shows how much my brain has been rotted by red wall discourse and how little faith I have in Labours by-election machineÖ
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Blair
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« Reply #1149 on: May 01, 2022, 02:04:03 PM »

Wakefield will irrc be only the fourth by election in a Government held marginal seat this century where the opposition is the main challenger.

The interesting thing is the behaviour of voters since Batley- theyíve shown a very strong willingness to vote tactically, and in rather creative ways.
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