UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

[Blair]

Both posts should be a reference point!

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Both posts should be a reference point!

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

huh, Would that Help the Lib-Dems/Labour by splitting the tory vote or hurt them by providing a conservative option without Boris's Baggage ?

[EastAnglianLefty]

No by-election in Lagan Valley: Donaldson is staying in Westminster, and the DUP will be co-opting his seat at Stormont. Makes one wonder if the whole thing was just to make Edwin Poots sweat.

Little-Pengelly was formely the MLA for South Belfast, so not impossible that he might still have to switch if she decides she wants to switch back.

[CumbrianLefty]

Parish might only get a small vote anyway, quite a few MPs restanding as Independents do.

(though I remain sceptical he will do this anyway)

[Tintrlvr]

Both posts should be a reference point!

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

huh, Would that Help the Lib-Dems/Labour by splitting the tory vote or hurt them by providing a conservative option without Boris's Baggage ?

Labour are irrelevant there, but it could go either way for the Lib Dems: On the one hand they should be hoovering up voters who dislike the government, so Parish running against the government also could hinder their efforts by splitting that vote, but on the other hand he may win mostly voters who are unhappy with the government but would literally never vote any party other than Tory, which could help them.

[CumbrianLefty]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

[Alcibiades]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

[Tintrlvr]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Yes, she had been the candidate who got 10% at the 2019 GE.

Overall, the Lib Dems need a smaller swing to win Tiverton and Honiton than happened in either Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, so it seems quite plausible that they could take it.

[Joe Republic]

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

I thought watching the farming community getting buggered was something that might appeal to Neil Parish?

[CumbrianLefty]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Yes, she had been the candidate who got 10% at the 2019 GE.

Overall, the Lib Dems need a smaller swing to win Tiverton and Honiton than happened in either Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, so it seems quite plausible that they could take it.

Not quite, C & A had a majority of "only" about 30% for the Tories in 2019.

(plus the LibDems actually started in second place there)

[Blair]

Shropshire was v strange because there was actually barely no liberal tradition at all- I feel the possible scale of tactical voting in 2024 could really cause a lot of surprises.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shropshire was v strange because there was actually barely no liberal tradition at all- I feel the possible scale of tactical voting in 2024 could really cause a lot of surprises.

There had been quite a strong one, but a while back and not enough to take the seat: it was one of those areas (common in the Marches for various reasons) where the Liberals needed universal manhood suffrage to unlock their full electoral potential, except that by the time this happened the party was in freefall. They retained a solid core vote and had a minor revival, including at local government level, in the 60s and 70s but things didn't quite click and cohere and they fell back. But the circumstances were a huge deal at the by-election last year, and the Tories responded to being on the back foot incredibly badly and it was then one error after another...

[Tintrlvr]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Yes, she had been the candidate who got 10% at the 2019 GE.

Overall, the Lib Dems need a smaller swing to win Tiverton and Honiton than happened in either Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, so it seems quite plausible that they could take it.

Not quite, C & A had a majority of "only" about 30% for the Tories in 2019.

(plus the LibDems actually started in second place there)

They *needed* a smaller swing in C&A, but the actual swing in C&A would be more than enough to flip T&H.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Simon Lightwood selected for Labour.

[Blair]

Simon Lightwood selected for Labour.

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

[JimJamUK]

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

Yeah, if there is genuine local anger at a stitch-up then it can result in support for the non-anointed candidate. The most obvious recent example of this being in Bassetlaw in 2019 where the national party blocked the very popular council leader from standing and instead shortlisted a far left councillor from elsewhere in Nottinghamshire, and a pro-remain former Camden councillor. Local members were so pissed they voted for the latter (of course this being a stitch-up, the NEC forced the Corbynista on them anyways).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Simon Lightwood selected for Labour.

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

I don't know, he's an obviously strong candidate on paper from a selection point of view (quite a few union endorsements, member of multiple Party panels, Co-op Party membership etc), so I think it's more a case of two 'acceptable' candidates being put forward and the members choosing the one with strong local ties: he's who I expected to be selected anyway! A selection that's rigged for someone is generally that candidate plus one or more candidates picked to be as unappealing to the selectorate as possible.

[Blair]

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

Yeah, if there is genuine local anger at a stitch-up then it can result in support for the non-anointed candidate. The most obvious recent example of this being in Bassetlaw in 2019 where the national party blocked the very popular council leader from standing and instead shortlisted a far left councillor from elsewhere in Nottinghamshire, and a pro-remain former Camden councillor. Local members were so pissed they voted for the latter (of course this being a stitch-up, the NEC forced the Corbynista on them anyways).

In true THIGMOO fashion I believe this was used to attack Keir Starmer- he was accused of not standing up for her and being too much of a Corbynista. It appears v weird now we were fighting over such a an unwinnable seat.

Simon Lightwood selected for Labour.

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

I don't know, he's an obviously strong candidate on paper from a selection point of view (quite a few union endorsements, member of multiple Party panels, Co-op Party membership etc), so I think it's more a case of two 'acceptable' candidates being put forward and the members choosing the one with strong local ties: he's who I expected to be selected anyway! A selection that's rigged for someone is generally that candidate plus one or more candidates picked to be as unappealing to the selectorate as possible.

Oh yeah I think I phrased it badly- it seemed that the other candidate was the one favoured by LOTO (didn’t help that a senior member of LOTO retweeted her launch video!) and seemed like the type usually parachuted in- but yeah on paper he look stronger and has held various local positions.

He did use to work for Mary Creagh- who is not very liked in the seat and is still unpopular- enough so I understand that a lot of senior  people were pleased she didn’t run.

Is the Labour group on the council so hated that couldn’t shortlist a Cllr? Seems strange still.

[CumbrianLefty]

As recent electoral evidence demonstrates, the council isn't that unpopular at all. Its hardly Bolton.

It may have been more a case of many of those wanting a "local" candidate putting all their eggs in one basket when that person was never likely to be selected for reasons already stated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth noting that most of Labour's district councillors in the area are not young even in political terms, which usually precludes trying for a parliamentary career.

[JimJamUK]

As recent electoral evidence demonstrates, the council isn't that unpopular at all. Its hardly Bolton.

It may have been more a case of many of those wanting a "local" candidate putting all their eggs in one basket when that person was never likely to be selected for reasons already stated.

I would go further. The 2022 and especially the 2021 results are miles better than what Labour would have achieved at the 2019 general election. While there may be other factors, in both years it has been one of the most popular Labour councils in all of England by that measure.

[YL]

Worth noting that most of Labour's district councillors in the area are not young even in political terms, which usually precludes trying for a parliamentary career.

I suspect many of them didn't have many ambitions in that direction anyway.  Many councillors have essentially no interest in being MPs.

[YL]

It's being reported that the writs for both by-elections will be moved tomorrow, which means 23 June for polling day.