2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

That’s irrelevant. What matters is what vote has been reported and what hasn’t.

Weird, wasn't irrelevant early in the night with Boone county Kentucky right?

Btw I agree, I don't know who wins but eat your crow first.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Surprised at Jefferson, AL (Birmingham) almost flipping.

[Bootes Void]

How much vote is there out of Milwaukee?

[Calthrina950]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

Biden is "only" up by 5% in Nevada and 7% in Maine, less than the margins which had been anticipated. Arizona is looking good for Biden, but it could very well be his only flip at this point (aside from NE-02). Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio are already gone for him.

[Alcibiades]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

Golden should win.

[DrScholl]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

Honestly, there are some things that we won't be able to understand even if we have the best empirical knowledge.

I've discovered this about humans. It's partly why I'm majoring in psychology.

The democratic party lost when they started  accusing people of stuff(racist, sexist, etc) and doubled down on the lost when they got violent. Focus on real economic solutions that help people and you may well have a break through. Most people hate the sjw whining and hate having to live in fear of some thug kicking their head in.

Your side was plotting to kill two governors. Do you not understand who the real threat is here?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

per DDHQ

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/wasphyxiation/status/1323879881642565633?s=20

[charcuterie]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

Biden is "only" up by 5% in Nevada and 7% in Maine, less than the margins which had been anticipated. Arizona is looking good for Biden, but it could very well be his only flip at this point. Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio are already gone for him.

Not true Some networks have called NE-2 for him already.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1323880243841609728?s=19

[GoTfan]

The Wisconsin mail drop is the moment of truth for Biden's reelection chances IMO. If it looks bad there it bodes terribly for Pennslyvania.

I'm optimistic. Extrapolating the Milwaukee vote share, Biden should cut the margin by at least 80000, and that's not even accounting for the fact many (most?) of these are absentee.

Still leaves Trump with a 20,000+ margin.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

K friends imma sleep now but before I go a few thoughts:

1. Not the anticipated D wave election on the presidential level by a long shot but probably still a win for Biden. He's probably favored in AZ, WI, NV, and MI and that's all he needs. The fact that Trump still can't count on Georgia (an unexpected bright-ish spot for Dems) and (to a much lesser extent) North Carolina doesn't help either.

2. Legislative humiliation. I'm not sure if the Democrats will net lose seats in the House or not but they certainly aren't picking up an appreciable number as of my writing this. In the Senate, the Democrats are having to claw their way to Susan Collins's seat, which should tell you all you need to know. Once again, I think Georgia might be an unexpected bright-ish spot, but this is a straight up bad performance.

3. I seriously never want to hear another electability case again. Twice in a row we've nominated these ostensibly electable moderates who clearly energize no one after the party put its thumb on the scale, and twice in a row we've been burned. I said this before, but in 2016 Bernie performed well among WWC in the Rust Belt who Clinton lost and in 2020 Bernie performed well among Hispanics who, honestly, Biden might have lost absent COVID. This is just atrocious. All of the states Biden was supposed to lock down were either always going D (Arizona) or always going R (Florida, Ohio, etc.) and a progressive might have actually done better in states like Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. Suffice it to say, barring a real risk of like nuclear war or something, I will not be voting for non-progressive Democrats for president for the foreseeable future, and I encourage any other progressives or even moderates who want to see the party actually win to take a similar pledge. I'm still going to vote and cure ballots for Warnock (and Ossoff if he gets to a runoff), but frankly downballot Dems are running out of goodwill as well.

True, Republicans went with the "most electable" with McCain and Romney and lost and then decided to screw it all and went with Trump and won.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Well, I'm going to attempt to sleep, as impossible as that seems right now. Absolutely appalled that this thing is still up in the air. Hard to have much of any hope for this country long term, given what we're seeing. The fact that this race is close at all is just a horrifying judgement on the values of American society, let alone if Trump wins. Nearly half the country is just a straight-up cult.

1000 people a day are dying from this pandemic, the vast majority at this point absolutely preventable had it not been for government mismanagement, and so many people just don't f***ing care. It defies all logic.

America is doomed, no matter who ends up winning. Expect a secession crisis or a civil war within your lifetime.

[Angasboy15]

The Wisconsin mail drop is the moment of truth for Biden's reelection chances IMO. If it looks bad there it bodes terribly for Pennslyvania.

I'm optimistic. Extrapolating the Milwaukee vote share, Biden should cut the margin by at least 80000, and that's not even accounting for the fact many (most?) of these are absentee.

Still leaves Trump with a 20,000+ margin.

But I'm saying that's just Milwaukee and the absentees should break even more favourably for Biden.

[Calthrina950]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

Biden is "only" up by 5% in Nevada and 7% in Maine, less than the margins which had been anticipated. Arizona is looking good for Biden, but it could very well be his only flip at this point. Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio are already gone for him.

Not true Some networks have called NE-2 for him already.

I realized my mistake just after I wrote my post, and I've modified it already. But Don Bacon has won reelection in NE-02, which is also disappointing for the Democrats.

[Gracile]

NYT says Biden won NE-02.

[Calthrina950]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

per DDHQ

A close race, as I expected. Golden obviously isn't winning by anywhere near the double-digit margins that polls purported to show, and as MT Treasurer warned us, he will be very vulnerable in 2022, especially in a Biden midterm, and maybe even without one.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump is going to win. He's leading in every uncalled state other than NV, AZ, and Maine.

Over a million votes left in D friendly areas in PA. Similar dynamics ongoing in MI and WI.

[BudgieForce]

Milwaukee has gotta have more than 100,000 ballots left. We're at 250,000 which is down over 150,000 ballots from 2016. And i doubt turnout is down in Miwaukee. Hoping there is close to 200,000 absentee ballots left.

[RI]

Ada County, ID flipped back to Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

Milwaukee has gotta have more than 100,000 ballots left. We're at 250,000 which is down over 150,000 ballots from 2016. And i doubt turnout is down in Miwaukee. Hoping there is close to 200,000 absentee ballots left.

There's a fair bit of absentee left in other D counties in WI.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Wow, maybe targeting Cuellar was a mistake.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

per DDHQ

So how is Gideon trailing by such a large margin?

[GoTfan]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

So he's underperforming Clinton in a city he NEEDS to win.

Call it for Trump already.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

I think we need to start taking a more fundamental look at why Trump's base have remained so loyal to him, through all of this. I think people on this forum have greatly misconstrued the reasons why. I certainly think that I haven't given it enough consideration in recent months.

I think we fail to realize just how manipulable the human psyche is. Trump is far from the first person to successfully lead a cult. To the outsider, it's completely irrational why people are allured by movements like the People's Temple or Heaven's Gate. I don't think it boils down to just one reason.

But Scripture warns us of false prophets. Perhaps some introspection would be good for all of us, because idolatry is central to all the wrongdoings of man. But it is subtle in nature and all fall victim to its prowess.