2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Meclazine for Israel]

The US Election is so much fun to watch.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump is backed up hard against the wall.

If Trump loses TX, WI or MI, this is all over. He cannot afford to lose any of these.

I think Biden has 261 at the moment without these states decided.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Again, can we please calm down?

no.

The background music on CNN is too energetic and anxious to have any chance of calming down.

That drum beat!

[Meclazine for Israel]

Can someone update TX for me. I only have CNN in Australia.

Wolf Blitzer is pure torture.

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Thoughts on Ohio?

Lean Biden

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump has this game won unless Biden can win PA + WI.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump has this game won unless Biden can win PA + WI.

That's, uh, a really big "unless".

WI, maybe, but PA is starting to run out of votes left to catch up, unless the mail in is predominantly Democrat.

It would appear the entire election will come down to PA.

[Meclazine for Israel]

CNN on Hawaii

"Imagine if Barack Obama's birth state comes back to haunt Donald Trump."

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think Biden wins with 291 EV

Are you looking at the same screens I am looking at?

I have Trump already on 293.

[Meclazine for Israel]

VA called for Biden.

Can Biden snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

He still needs PA and WI.

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If the problem with Pittsburgh gets resolved with Biden taking PA, Biden still needs WI which is slowly slipping away.

Only late counting of mail-in ballots can save Biden at this point in those two states.

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Can Trump win Michigan?
That would save us all.

I think MI is gone to Trump.

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Don’t see Biden losing this race with AZ called and MI/WI looking good. Or do I miss something?

Trump leads significantly in Pennsylvania and Michigan and with a smaller lead in Wisconsin.

Also Iowa looks confirmed for Trump, as does NC and Iowa.

How do you come to the conclusion that MI and WI look good?

Is it because they haven't counted mail in votes yet?

You do realize that trump was expected to lead PA on election night by as much as 16 while still being expected to lose after all the absentees are counted, right?

Lets say you are correct 100%.

How long are we waiting to get these votes counted?
MI, PA and WI is where it matters.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Practically all of the rural vote in GA is already in. The remaining 20+% of the vote is extremely D friendly.

I want to believe.

Interesting point if it transfers to PA and MI.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Practically all of the rural vote in GA is already in. The remaining 20+% of the vote is extremely D friendly.

I want to believe.

Interesting point if it transfers to PA and MI.

WI, MI, and PA have barely touched their absentee ballots. We're talking >million votes in each state.

My girlfriend is pretty happy with your analysis Arch.

You may have just saved my relationship.

After sitting here for the 2016 Election Day, if Trump wins in 2020, she said she is not coming back in 2024.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think Biden may be back in the game with late ballots.

Who said there was a Red Mirage - Blue Wave?

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI - Biden on 47% (72% counted)
MI - Biden on 45% (58% counted)
PA - Biden on 42% (65% counted)

Biden's numbers have been growing.

Mathematically, Biden can still sweep the Rust Belt up here with late ballots.

PA is nearly underwater though.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI - Biden on 47.2% (77% counted)
MI - Biden on 45% (61% counted)
PA - Biden on 42% (66% counted)

Biden's numbers have been growing, but he is too far back and not catching fast enough. Even if Pittsburgh's remaining votes were all Democrat, he wont make up the numbers there.

It now comes down to WI, MI and GA. Maybe NC with late ballots heavily in Biden's favour.

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Trump on election in swing states.

"Can't catch us"

"It's not even close."

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Is it just me or has Trump been sniffling?

Could definitely hear some denture slippage there. It's been a long night.

He did it during the debates as well.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If Georgia goes to Biden, then WI gets Biden to 272. (even with PA going to Trump)

I can see why Donald Trump wants to stop late voting.

If we stop counting now, Trump is ahead 120,000 votes in both states.

This is not over by any means.

[Meclazine for Israel]

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME, VA
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown regardless.

[Meclazine for Israel]

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown unless this count gets organised quickly tomorrow.

Trump doesnt have PA and MI yet.

PA - Biden is 700,000 votes behind (74% in)
MI - Biden is 300,000 votes behind (69% in)

Biden is not catching Trump anywhere near enough in either state to make up the gap in the remaining votes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME, VA
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown regardless.

Biden is almost certain to win Michigan.  Look at where the remaining vote is and the patterns between election day and early vote.  He makes up his current deficit with the outstanding vote from Wayne county alone.  I think this will also be true in WI and PA, though it will be closer there.

Thanks Nick.

If what you are saying is true, MI, WI and GA give Joe Biden a comfortable election win with an EC number of around 288.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI - Biden down by 108,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 647,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 377,000 of them. (58.3%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.