Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

I've looked at the polls, and the redgreens are catching up, no doubt about it. The question is whether it will be enough or not and I personally doubt that.

I'm 95% certain we will wake up on Monday with a hung parliament.

Prediction:

M: 29.5%
S: 31.2%
MP: 9.7%
C: 6.6%
FP: 6.1%
KD: 5.3%
V: 5.5%
SD: 5.1%

Others: 1%
Blue bloc: 47.5%
Redgreen: 46.4%

Margin: 1.1%

Margin for majority: -4%

I could be more optimistic but I'm not an optimistic person.

[Insula Dei]

So the Socialdemocrats stand a good chance of remaining the largest party? That'd make this election slightly less annoying in my book.

Oh, and I'm sorry to be the bringer of bad news but in my (long) experience with them the far right has never underpolled just slightly; they tend to underpoll a lot. Whose voters are they stealing anyway? They could wind up seriously hurting both the more rightwing bourgeois parties and the socialdemocrats (disaffected working class voters are quite open to far right populism).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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I don't think it'll get that close. I was saying already back when the Red-greens had their own majority in polls that a hung parliament would be the outcome of this election and it still points in that direction, so my prediction is more to the optimistic side. But I still think the Alliance will have at least a 2% advantage even with a hung parliament.

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I'd say there's a 50/50 chance. Depends on how many M voters decide to vote for the smaller burgois parties for tactical reasons.

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Most people say they hurt the Social Democrats more, but living in Skåne, in the Sweden Democrats' 9th best city in 09 European elections, I know a few, and they're a pretty diverse group. Many of them more to the right-than to the left, so from personal experience I'd say they hurt both sides equally.

(But as Al pointed out earlier, personal experience is a vary bad way to measure these things)

[Gustaf]

So the Socialdemocrats stand a good chance of remaining the largest party? That'd make this election slightly less annoying in my book.

Oh, and I'm sorry to be the bringer of bad news but in my (long) experience with them the far right has never underpolled just slightly; they tend to underpoll a lot. Whose voters are they stealing anyway? They could wind up seriously hurting both the more rightwing bourgeois parties and the socialdemocrats (disaffected working class voters are quite open to far right populism).

The Sweden Democrats didn't underpoll that much in 2006 though, only about 1%.

[Gustaf]

I'm being a tad pessimistic, but I like to hedge that way.

I think S has a 55-45 chance of being the biggest party. They're slightly ahead in the polls now and have momentum on their side.

It's hard to tell which side gets hurt the most by Sweden Democrats. I have a feeling they mostly take voters who wouldn't vote otherwise (at least on the margin).

[Tender Branson]

What do you guys think?

Alliance: 49.1%

M: 29.8%
Kd: 6.5%
Fp: 7.1%
C: 5.7%

Red-Greens - 43.1%

S: 29.6%
Mp: 8.3%
V: 5.2%

Sweden Democrats - 6.8%

Others: 1.0%

Turnout: 81.3%

[Tender Branson]

7.123.082 people are eligible to vote.

2.178.425 people have already voted early. That´s up from 1.793.675 in 2006.

[Tender Branson]

Is it correct that in Sweden members of each party are distributing ballot papers of their own party to voters outside of voting booths ?

Therefore many voters are just taking their ballot papers from home to the voting booth or pick ballot papers from more than 1 party in front of the voting booth and take them into the booth, so that no other person can see which party he/she is voting for ?

Or something like this I have read today

[Gustaf]

Is it correct that in Sweden members of each party are distributing ballot papers of their own party to voters outside of voting booths ?

Therefore many voters are just taking their ballot papers from home to the voting booth or pick ballot papers from more than 1 party in front of the voting booth and take them into the booth, so that no other person can see which party he/she is voting for ?

Or something like this I have read today

Yes, that is correct. Apart from the "taking ballot papers from home to the voting booth" part, because I never heard of anyone doing that.

[Tender Branson]

Is it correct that in Sweden members of each party are distributing ballot papers of their own party to voters outside of voting booths ?

Therefore many voters are just taking their ballot papers from home to the voting booth or pick ballot papers from more than 1 party in front of the voting booth and take them into the booth, so that no other person can see which party he/she is voting for ?

Or something like this I have read today

Yes, that is correct. Apart from the "taking ballot papers from home to the voting booth" part, because I never heard of anyone doing that.

Ah ok, but how can that be in line with the "secrecy of the vote" ?

If you have to go to the party that you wanna vote for to get your ballot and anyone can watch you and knows which party you are voting for ?

Or are the ballots that are given out just like regular ballots with all the other parties on it as well ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is it correct that in Sweden members of each party are distributing ballot papers of their own party to voters outside of voting booths ?

Therefore many voters are just taking their ballot papers from home to the voting booth or pick ballot papers from more than 1 party in front of the voting booth and take them into the booth, so that no other person can see which party he/she is voting for ?

Or something like this I have read today

Yes, that is correct. Apart from the "taking ballot papers from home to the voting booth" part, because I never heard of anyone doing that.

I did today So now you've heard about it.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If you have to go to the party that you wanna vote for to get your ballot and anyone can watch you and knows which party you are voting for ?

Or are the ballots that are given out just like regular ballots with all the other parties on it as well ?

Ballots look like this. They're individual for every party with the party's name on top, and a list of the candidates in your district. (The boxes in front of the names are there so that you can select a special candidate that you want your vote to go to) Ballots have different colours for what election they are for, yellow for Parliament, blue for County Council, and white for City Council.



If you don't want people to know what party you vote for, you take one ballot from every party or bring ballots from home. Hope that explains it.

EDIT: LESS THAN AN HOUR TO EXIT POLLS!!!

[Tender Branson]

Is there some kind of live-stream on a Swedish TV station ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is there some kind of live-stream on a Swedish TV station ?

Yes, SVT.

http://svt.se/

[Tender Branson]

If you have to go to the party that you wanna vote for to get your ballot and anyone can watch you and knows which party you are voting for ?

Or are the ballots that are given out just like regular ballots with all the other parties on it as well ?

Ballots look like this. They're individual for every party with the party's name on top, and a list of the candidates in your district. (The boxes in front of the names are there so that you can select a special candidate that you want your vote to go to) Ballots have different colours for what election they are for, yellow for Parliament, blue for County Council, and white for City Council.



If you don't want people to know what party you vote for, you take one ballot from every party or bring ballots from home. Hope that explains it.

EDIT: LESS THAN AN HOUR TO EXIT POLLS!!!

hahaha. what a waste of paper ...

[Tender Branson]

About 5 minutes until exit polls ...

[Tender Branson]

Is "Valvakan" the live stream ?

[Tender Branson]

Ah, now I´ve found it:

http://svt.se/2.136784

[Tender Branson]

YAY !!!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Do you even understand Swedish Tender?

Alliance is leading in the exit polls from Svt with above 49% !!!

Yay

[Tender Branson]

Do you even understand Swedish Tender?

No, but the Sweden Democrats @ only 4.6% !!!

And the Social Democrats are the strongest party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Figures please - damn website is too slow and I've overworked myself enough today as it is

[Hans-im-Glück]

Is 49% enough for the Alliance for a majority? It must be very close.

[Tender Branson]

V: 6.1% S: 30.0% MP: 9.0%

Red-Red-Green: 45.1%

C: 7.1% FP: 7.2%, KD: 5.7%, M: 29.1%

Alliance: 49.1%

SD: 4.6%

Others: 1.2%

[Tender Branson]

TV4 has a different exit poll:

M 27,2 (1,0)
Fp 6,9 (-0,6)
C 7,0 (-0,9)
Kd 7,1 (0,5)

Alliansen 48,2 (0)

S 32,7 (-2,3)
V 5,9 (0)
Mp 7,8 (2,6)

Rödgröna 46,4 (0,3)

SD 4,1 (1,2)